Fig. 1. Procedure of producing the representative climate scenarios of annual maximum precipitation for different durations with statistical downscaling approaches. Note that‘base’ indicates the period of 1979~2005 and ‘future’ does the period of 2006~2100
Fig. 2. Model development of nonparametric temporal downscaling from lee and jeong (2014) (left panel) to lee and park (2017) (right panel)
Fig. 3. Employed weather stations in the current study
Fig. 4. Performance measurement as likelihood, RMSE, and AIC for each non-mixture and mixture distributions
Fig. 5. Return periods versus annual maximum precipitation for different durations at goheung station
Fig. 6. The results of the mean of annual maximum precipitation (x-axis) for different durations at mokpo from lee and jeong (2014) (left panel) to lee and park (2017) (right panel)
Fig. 7. Time series of annual maximum precipitation for different durations at Mokpo station. note that the base period is between 1979~2005 and future period for the rcp8.5 scenario is 2006~2100. solid line indicates the observed data and the gray lines are 100 downscaled series and their median with red dotted line
Fig. 8. Trace selection method of RCP8.5 employing (a) mean and std.(see Eq.(3)), (b) density estimate(see Eq.(4)), (c ) empirical CDF(see Eq.(5))
Fig. 9. Mean of selected representative annual maximum precipitation for different durations for the base period and future periods of RCP8.5. Here, P1: 2006~2040, P2: 2041~2070, P3: 2071~2100
References
- Alexandrov, V. A., and Hoogenboom, G. (2000). "The impact of climate variability and change on crop yield in Bulgaria." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 104, No. 4, pp. 315-327. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00166-0.
- Boe, J., Terray, L., Habets, F., and Martin, E. (2007). "Statistical and dynamical downscaling of the Seine basin climate for hydrometeorological studies." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 27, No. 12, pp. 1643-1655. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1602
- Chen, H., Sun, J., and Wang, H. (2012). "A statistical downscaling model for forecasting summer rainfall in China from DEMETER hindcast datasets." Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 27, No. 3 pp. 608-628. 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00079.1.
- Chen, Y., Takeuchi, K., Xu, C., Chen, Y., and Xu, Z. (2006). "Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin China." Hydrological Processes, Vol. 20, pp. 2207-2216. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6200
- Cohen, S. J., Miller, K. A., Hamlet, A. F., and Avis, W. (2000). "Climate change and resource management in the Columbia River Basin." Water International, Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 253-272. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060008686827
- Deque, M. (2007). "Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in an anthropogenic scenario: Model results and statistical correction according to observed values." Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 57, No. 1-2, pp. 16-26. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.030.
- Fowler, H., Blenkinsop, S., and Tebaldi, C. (2007). "Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 27, No. 12, pp. 1547-1578. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1556
- Hagemann, S., Chen, C., Haerter, J. O., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., and Piani, C. (2011). "Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected hydrological changes obtained from three GCMs and two hydrology models." Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 12, pp. 556-578. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1336.1
- Hansen, J. W., Challinor, A., Ines, A., Wheeler, T., and Moron, V. (2006). "Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms advances and challenges." Climate research, Vol. 33, pp. 27-41. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr033027
- Hwang, J., Ahn, J., Jeong, C., and Heo, J. H. (2018). "A study on the variation of design flood due to climate change in the ungauged urban catchment." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 51, No. 5, pp. 395-404. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.5.395
- Kilsby, C. G., Cowpertwait, P. S. P., O'Connell, P. E., and Jones, P. D. (1998). "Predicting rainfall statistics in England and Wales using atmospheric circulation variables." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 18, pp. 523-539. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199804)18:5<523::AID-JOC268>3.0.CO;2-X.
- Koutsoyiannis, D., and Onof, C. (2001). "Rainfall disaggregation using adjusting procedures on a Poisson cluster model." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 246, No. 1-4, pp. 109-122. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00363-8
- Krajewski, W. F., Lakshmi, V., Georgakakos, K. P., and Jain, S. C. (1991). "A Monte Carlo study of rainfall sampling effect on a distributed catchment model." Water Resources Research, Vol. 27, pp. 119-128. https://doi.org/10.1029/90WR01977
- Kumara, J., Brooksb, G. J., Thorntonc, P. E., and Dietzeb, M. C. (2012). "Sub-daily Statistical Downscaling of Meteorological Variables Using Neural Networks." Procedia Computer Science, p. 9.
- Lee, T., and Jeong, C. (2014). "Nonparametric statistical temporal downscaling of daily precipitation to hourly precipitation and implications for climate change scenarios." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 510, pp. 182-196. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.027.
- Lee, T., and Park, T. (2017). "Nonparametric temporal downscaling with event-based population generating algorithm for RCM daily precipitation to hourly: Model development and performance evaluation." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 547, pp. 498-516 doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.049.
- Lee, T., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., and Jeong, C. (2012). "Nonparametric multivariate weather generator and an extreme value theory for bandwidth selection." Journal of Hydrology, pp. 452-453:161-171.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.047.
- Lee, T., Singh, V., and Kim, S. (2018). "Trace Selection Method for a Best Representative in Stochastic Downscaling of Precipitation." Journal of Hydrology In Review.
- Lettenmaier, D., Wood, A., Palmer, R., Wood, E., and Stakhiv, E. (1999). "Water Resources Implications of Global Warming: A U.S. Regional Perspective." Climatic Change, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp. 537-579. doi:10.1023/A:1005448007910.
- Marani, M., and Zanetti, S. (2007). "Downscaling rainfall temporal variability." Water Resources Research, Vol. 43, No. 9, 10.1029/2006WR005505.
- Panofsky, H. A., and Brier, G. W. (1968). "Some Applications of Statistics to Meteorology." Earth and Mineral Sciences Continuing Education, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences.
- Park, B. S., Lee, J. H., Kim, C. J., Jang, H. W. (2013). "Projection of Future Drought of Korea Based on Probabilistic Approach Using Multi-model and Multi Climate Change Scenarios." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 33, No. 5, pp. 1871-1885. https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2013.33.5.1871
- Sharma, D., Gupta, A. D., and Babel, M. (2007). "Spatial disaggregation of bias-corrected GCM precipitation for improved hydrologic simulation: Ping River Basin Thailand." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Vol. 11, pp. 1373-1390. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1373-2007
- Shin, J.-Y., Lee, T., Park, T., and Kim, S. (2018). "Bias Correction of RCM outputs using Mixture Distributions under Multiple Extreme Weather Influences." Theorecial and Applied Climatology Accepted.
- Themessl, M. J., Gobiet, A., and Leuprecht, A. (2011). "Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of daily precipitation from regional climate models." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 31, pp. 1530-1544. doi:10.1002/joc.2168.
- van Pelt, S. C., Beersma, J. J., Buishand, T. A., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., and Kabat, P. (2012). "Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 16, pp. 4517-4530. doi:10.5194/hess-16-4517-201.
- Wang, G., and Liu, J. (2006). The digital watershed model for the Yellow River basin. China Science Press, Beijing.