• Title/Summary/Keyword: geographically weighted regression(GWR)

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Construction of Urban Crime Prediction Model based on Census Using GWR (GWR을 이용한 센서스 기반 도시범죄 특성 분석 및 예측모델 구축)

  • YOO, Young-Woo;BAEK, Tae-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to present a prediction model that reflects crime risk area analysis, including factors and spatial characteristics, as a precursor to preparing an alternative plan for crime prevention and design. This analysis of criminal cases in high-risk areas revealed clusters in which approximately 25% of the cases within the study area occurred, distributed evenly throughout the region. This means that using a multiple linear regression model might overestimate the crime rate in some regions and underestimate in others. It also suggests that the number of deserted houses in an analyzed region has a negative relationship with the dependent variable, based on the multiple linear regression model results, and can also have different influences depending on the region. These results reveal that closure signs in a study area affect the dependent variable differently, depending on the region, rather than a simple or direct relationship with the dependent variable, as indicated by the results of the multiple linear regression model.

A Study on The Characteristics of Residential Area of Housing Voucher Program - in the Case of the Seoul Metropolitan Area (주택바우처 수혜자의 주거지 특성 분석 - 서울시를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Ga-Yeon;Hong, Hee-Jeong;Hong, Sung-Hyun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.207-220
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    • 2016
  • Paradigm for supporting housing for low-middle income class has been changing from public rental housing to Housing Voucher. Housing Voucher started first in Seoul since 2010, and it has been expended to other areas in 2014. Given the dearth of previous research data, this study aims to analyze options determinants that the beneficiaries could consider in choosing their residential area. In this study, the researcher used for the research methods, a quantitative analysis by Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) has been conducted. As a result, the accessibility to social welfare centers, public transportation and job opportunities emerged main factors to for the Housing Voucher recipients in Seoul to choose their residential area. This is different results from previous research, which has two implications. First, reexamination of Housing Voucher is necessary. Second, Housing Voucher beneficiaries should include not only the housing but also support for family and welfare system access.

Analysis on Geographical Variations of the Prevalence of Hypertension Using Multi-year Data (다년도 자료를 이용한 고혈압 유병률의 지역간 변이 분석)

  • Kim, Yoomi;Cho, Daegon;Hong, Sungok;Kim, Eunju;Kang, Sunghong
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.935-948
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    • 2014
  • As chronic diseases have become more prevalent and problematic, effective cares for major chronic diseases have been a locus of the healthcare policy. In this regard, this study examines how region-specific characteristics affect the prevalence of hypertension in South Korea. To analyze, we combined a unique multi-year data set including key indicators of health conditions and health behaviors at the 237 small administrative districts. The data are collected from the Annual Community Health Survey between 2009 and 2011 by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other government organizations. For the purpose of investigating regional variations, we estimated using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and decision tree model. Our finding first suggests that using the multi-year data is more legitimate than using the single-year data for the geographical analysis of chronic diseases, because the significant annual differences are observed in most variables. We also find that the prevalence of hypertension is more likely to be positively associated with the prevalence of diabetes and obesity but to be negatively associated with population density. More importantly, noticeable geographical variations in these factors are observed according to the results from the GWR. In line with this result, additional findings from the decision tree model suggest that primary influential factors that affect the hypertension prevalence are indeed heterogeneous across regional groups. Taken as a whole, accounting for geographical variations of health conditions, health behaviors and other socioeconomic factors is very important when the regionally customized healthcare policy is implemented to mitigate the hypertension prevalence. In short, our study sheds light on possible ways to manage the chronic diseases for policy makers in the local government.

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Submarket Identification in Property Markets: Focusing on a Hedonic Price Model Improvement (부동산 하부시장 구획: 헤도닉 모형의 개선을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Chang Ro;Eum, Young Seob;Park, Key Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.405-422
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    • 2014
  • Two important issues in hedonic model are to specify accurate model and delineate submarkets. While the former has experienced much improvement over recent decades, the latter has received relatively little attention. However, the accuracy of estimates from hedonic model will be necessarily reduced when the analysis does not adequately address market segmentation which can capture the spatial scale of price formation process in real estate. Placing emphasis on improvement of performance in hedonic model, this paper tried to segment real estate markets in Gangnam-gu and Jungrang-gu, which correspond to most heterogeneous and homogeneous ones respectively in 25 autonomous districts of Seoul. First, we calculated variable coefficients from mixed geographically weighted regression model (mixed GWR model) as input for clustering, since the coefficient from hedonic model can be interpreted as shadow price of attributes constituting real estate. After that, we developed a spatially constrained data-driven methodology to preserve spatial contiguity by utilizing the SKATER algorithm based on a minimum spanning tree. Finally, the performance of this method was verified by applying a multi-level model. We concluded that submarket does not exist in Jungrang-gu and five submarkets centered on arterial roads would be reasonable in Gangnam-gu. Urban infrastructure such as arterial roads has not been considered an important factor for delineating submarkets until now, but it was found empirically that they play a key role in market segmentation.

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Analysis of Spatial Characteristics of Vacant House in Consideration of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) - Focused on the Old Downtowns of Busan Metropolitan City - (공간단위 수정가능성 문제(MAUP)를 고려한 빈집 발생지역의 특성 분석 - 부산광역시 원도심 일대를 대상으로 -)

  • SEOL, Yu-Jeong;KIM, Ji-Yun;KIM, Ho-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.120-132
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the rapid increase in vacant houses in urban areas has caused various problems such as worsening urban landscape, causing safety accidents, crime accidents, and hygiene problems. According to the Statistics Korea Future Population Estimation results, the growth rate of Korean population and households is expected to continue to decrease, which is likely to lead to an increase in the occurrence of vacant houses. If the problem caused by the occurrence of vacant houses is neglected, it causes not only a physical decline such as a deterioration of the residential environment but also a social and economic decline. In order to solve this problem, it is necessary to grasp the spatial distribution characteristics of vacant houses at the local level considering the existence of regional characteristics and spatial influence. Therefore, in this study, in order to measure global spatial autocorrelation, the analysis was conducted centering on the old downtown area of Busan, where there are many vacant houses through Moran's I and Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR). In addition, the distribution of vacant houses in different spatial units in Eup_Myeon_Dong and Census was analyzed to evaluate the possibility of Modifiable Areal Unit Problem(MAUP), which differ in the results of spatial analysis as the spatial analysis units change. As a result of the analysis, the occurrence of vacant houses by Eup_Myeon_Dong in the old downtown area of Busan had spatial heterogeneity, and the spatial analysis results of vacant houses were different as the spatial analysis units were different. Accordingly, in order to understand the exact distribution characteristics of vacant house occurrence, spatial dimensions using the GWR model should be considered, and it is suggested that consideration of the MAUP is necessary.

Effects of Urban Environments on Pedestrian Behaviors: a Case of the Seoul Central Area (보행에 대한 도시환경의 차이: 서울 도심을 중심으로)

  • Kwon, Daeyoung;Suh, Tongjoo;Kim, Soyoon;Kim, Brian Hong Sok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.638-650
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this study is to identify the causes of pedestrian volume path to the destination by investigating the influential levels of regional and planning features in the central area of Seoul. Regional characteristics can be classified from the result of the analysis and through the spatial characteristics of pedestrian volume. For global scale analysis, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression is used for the degree of influence of each characteristics to pedestrian volume. For the local scale, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is used to identify regional influential factors with consideration for spatial differences. The results of OLS indicate that boroughs with transportation facilities, commercial business districts, universities, and planning features with education research facilities and planning facilities have a positive effect on pedestrian volume path to the destination. Correspondingly, transportation hubs and congested areas, commercial and business centers, and university towns and research facilities in the Seoul central area can be identified through the results of GWR. The results of this study can provide information with relevance to existing plans and policies about the importance of regional characteristics and spatial heterogeneity effects on pedestrian volume, as well as significance in the establishment of regional development plans.

A Study on the Methodology of Extracting the vulnerable districts of the Aged Welfare Using Artificial Intelligence and Geospatial Information (인공지능과 국토정보를 활용한 노인복지 취약지구 추출방법에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jiman;Cho, Duyeong;Lee, Sangseon;Lee, Minseob;Nam, Hansik;Yang, Hyerim
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.169-186
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    • 2018
  • The social influence of the elderly population will accelerate in a rapidly aging society. The purpose of this study is to establish a methodology for extracting vulnerable districts of the welfare of the aged through machine learning(ML), artificial neural network(ANN) and geospatial analysis. In order to establish the direction of analysis, this progressed after an interview with volunteers who over 65-year old people, public officer and the manager of the aged welfare facility. The indicators are the geographic distance capacity, elderly welfare enjoyment, officially assessed land price and mobile communication based on old people activities where 500 m vector areal unit within 15 minutes in Yongin-city, Gyeonggi-do. As a result, the prediction accuracy of 83.2% in the support vector machine(SVM) of ML using the RBF kernel algorithm was obtained in simulation. Furthermore, the correlation result(0.63) was derived from ANN using backpropagation algorithm. A geographically weighted regression(GWR) was also performed to analyze spatial autocorrelation within variables. As a result of this analysis, the coefficient of determination was 70.1%, which showed good explanatory power. Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi coefficients are analyzed to investigate spatially outlier as well as distribution patterns. This study can be used to solve the welfare imbalance of the aged considering the local conditions of the government recently.

Regional Variation in the Incidence of Diabetes-Related Lower Limb Amputations and Its Relationship with the Regional Factors (당뇨병 합병증으로 인한 하지 절단율의 지역적 변이 및 지역 특성 요인과의 관계 분석)

  • Won, Sung Hun;Kim, Jahyung;Chun, Dong-Il;Yi, Young;Park, Suyeon;Jung, Kwang-Young;Park, Gun-Hyun;Cho, Jaeho
    • Journal of Korean Foot and Ankle Society
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.121-130
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: To investigate the spatial distribution of diabetes-related lower limb amputations and analyze the relationship between the spatial distribution of diabetes-related lower limb amputations and regional factors. Materials and Methods: This study was performed based on the data from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, in 2016. The unit of analysis was the administrative districts of city·gun·gu. The dependent variable was the age- and sex-adjusted incidence of diabetes-related lower limb amputations and the regional variables were selected to represent two aspects: socioeconomic factors, and health and medical factors. Along with traditional ordinary least square (OLS) regression analysis, geographically weighted regression (GWR) was applied for spatial analysis. Results: The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of diabetes-related lower limb amputation varied according to region. OLS regression showed that the incidence of diabetes-related lower limb amputation had significant relationships with the health and medical factors (number of healthcare institution and doctors per 100,000 population). In GWR, the effects of regional factors were not consistent. Conclusion: The spatial distribution of the incidence of diabetes-related lower limb amputations and the effects of regional factors varied according to the regions. The regional characteristics should be considered when establishing health policy related to diabetic foot care.

Analyzing Spatial Pattern by moving Factors of out-migration people Related moving to the Provinces of Capital Region Firms (수도권 유출인구의 공간적 패턴분석 및 이동영향 요인 분석 - 수도권 기업의 지방이전과 관련하여 -)

  • Hong, Ha-Yeon;Lee, Kil-Jae
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.155-175
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    • 2014
  • This study targets to recognize needs of spatial pattern analysis and to draw the relationship between relocation of Capital Region firms and population outflow in Capital Region through the regression analysis. The population outflow in Capital Region has moved to and around Yesan-gun and Asan-si. Also, such outflow is found to compose mostly one or two household members for their jobs. In addition to this study has analyzed to find effect factors through the Geographically Weighted Regression. The results of the analysis has confirmed that the most decisive factors affecting population flow from Capital Region to Chungcheongnam-do were population factors and transportation factors and others. Thus, the below policy implications could be derived and also may be applied toward Sejong City which are currently experiencing the relocating of Public sectors and new constructions. Firstly, the effect of Capital Region firms movement on population inflows could be better observed in small-scale towns like "kun" than larger-scale towns like "si.". On the other hand, people in Capital Region moved to larger-scale towns like "si" unlike the Capital Region firms. This difference implicates that people select their residence according to not only their jobs but also residential environment. Secondly, moving people from Capital Region to another region for their jobs are expected to appear more in a form of family units rather than individual units. Sejong city, where public organizations are being relocated, should recognize this particular Chungcheonnam-do phenomenon and be prepared to be more effectively used in perspectives of land use as well as urban planning.

Comparison of Three Kinds of Methods on Estimation of Forest Carbon Stocks Distribution Using National Forest Inventory DB and Forest Type Map (국가산림자원조사 DB와 임상도를 이용한 산림탄소저장량 공간분포 추정방법 비교)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Min;Roh, Young-Hee;Kim, Eun-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.69-85
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    • 2014
  • Carbon stocks of NFI plots can be accurately estimated using field survey information. However, an accurate estimation of carbon stocks in other unsurveyed sites is very difficult. In order to fill this gap, various spatial information can be used as an ancillary data. In South Korea, there is the 1:5,000 forest type map that was produced by digital air-photo interpretation and field survey. Because this map contains very detailed forest information, it can be used as the high-quality spatial data for estimating carbon stocks. In this study, we compared three upscaling methods based on the 1:5,000 forest type map and 5th national forest inventory data. Map algebra(method 1), RK(Regression Kriging)(method 2), and GWR(Geographically Weighted Regression)(method 3) were applied to estimate forest carbon stock in Chungcheong-nam Do and Daejeon metropolitan city. The range of carbon stocks from method 2(1.39~138.80 tonC/ha) and method 3(1.28~149.98 tonC/ha) were more similar to that of previous method(1.56~156.40 tonC/ha) than that of method 1(0.00~93.37 tonC/ha). This result shows that RK and GWR considering spatial autocorrelation can show spatial heterogeneity of carbon stocks. We carried out paired t-test for carbon stock data using 186 sample points to assess estimation accuracy. As a result, the average carbon stocks of method 2 and field survey method were not significantly different at p=0.05 using paired t-test. And the result of method 2 showed the lowest RMSE. Therefore regression kriging method is useful to consider spatial variations of carbon stocks distribution in rugged terrain and complex forest stand.