• 제목/요약/키워드: forecast supply

검색결과 247건 처리시간 0.024초

콘크리트용 건설자재의 단기수요 예측모형에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Short-Term Demand Forecasing System of the Construction Materials for Concrete)

  • 최민수;김무한
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘크리트학회 1991년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.146-151
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    • 1991
  • In recent years a reasonable supply and demand plan of construction materials which is based upon an accurate forecast has been greatly required to prevent construction works from delaying and slapdash. To meet an above requirement, a short-term forecasting system of construction materials, in this paper, is established, which is approached in engineering aspect and emerged from conventional forecasting systems. The major considerations in setting up this system are the distributed lag of consrection business indicators and seasonal variations in consumption of constuction materials.

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정보통신공사업 인력수급차 분석 및 전망 (Labor market forecasts for Information and communication construction business)

  • 곽정호;권태희;오동석;김정우
    • 인터넷정보학회논문지
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2015
  • 모든 산업이 ICT 인프라를 기반으로 융합되고 나아가 산업과 문화가 융합되는 스마트융합 환경이 도래함에 따라, ICT 인프라를 시공 및 구축하는 정보통신공사업이 중요하게 평가되고 있다. 이러한 정보통신공사업의 지속적인 성장을 위해서는 기술인력의 공급이 안정적으로 이루어지는 것이 매우 중요하나, 현재까지 이론적으로 체계적인 정보통신공사업 분야의 인력수급차 분석이 수행된 바가 없다. 특히 정부에서도 2014년 12월에 공사업 육성방안 로드맵을 추진하며 중장기 인력수급차 분석에 기반한 인적역량 강화방안을 모색하겠다고 발표하여, 정량적인 인력수급차 분석의 필요성은 더욱 중요해지는 상황이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 정보통신공사업의 인력수급 예측모형을 개발하고, 인력수급차 분석결과를 제시하였다. 분석결과, 2007년도부터 전문대학의 입학자 감소, 구조조정, 학과개편 등의 요인으로 전문대 교육과정에서 배출되는 졸업생이 줄어들어 초과수요상태가 나타나는 것으로 조사되었다. 이에 따라 정보통신공사업 시장의 기술인력 부족현상을 줄이기 위해, 기존인력의 재교육, 정보통신기술인력 양성정책을 지속적으로 유지하고 다양한 정책적 유인을 제공할 필요성이 있는 것으로 분석되었다.

수도권 토지수요와 공급체계 분석 연구 (A Study on the Land Demand and Supply System in the Capital Region of Korea)

  • 안정근
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제7권6호
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    • pp.1277-1283
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    • 2006
  • 우리나라의 주민 소득수준 향상에 따른 토지수요는 수도권을 중심으로 꾸준히 증가할 것으로 예상되나 수도권에서의 가용토지는 한정되어 있고 토지공급 체계가 합리적이지 않아 토지수급에 문제가 제기되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 수도권에서의 인구변화를 기초로 주택수를 판단하여 토지수요를 예측하고 토지공급체계를 분석하여 토지 공급 개선방향을 제시하는데 목적이 있다. 연구결과 수도권에서는 2010년까지 신규 택지개발사업에 의한 주택수요량 127만호로 예측되며 이를 위해 $293km^2$ (8,855만평)의 토지수요가 있는 것으로 나타났으나 수도권에서의 토지의 용도전환이 엄격하게 제한되어 도시용 토지공급이 원활치 못한 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 수도권에서는 도시용지 공급의 중복규제 정비, 토지이용관련 규제합리화, 정부 부처간의 긴밀한 협조체제 구축, 개발용도지역과 보전용도지역의 경계조정, 농업진흥지역과 보전산지의 개념 재정립 등을 통하여 합리적인 토지공급체계 운용이 요구된다.

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ARIMA 수요자정을 고려한 장기보충계약 (A Long-term Replenishment Contract for the ARIMA Demand Process)

  • 김종수;정봉룡
    • 한국산업경영시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국산업경영시스템학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.343-348
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    • 2002
  • We are concerned with a long-term replenishment contract for the ARIMA demand process in a supply chain. The chain is composed of one supplier, one buyer and consumers for a product. The replenishment contract is based upon the well-known (s, Q) policy but allows us to contract future replenishments at a time with a price discount. Due to the larger forecast error of future demand, the buyer should keep a higher level of safety stock to provide the same level of service as the usual (s, Q) policy. However, the buyer can reduce his purchase cost by ordering a larger quantity at a discounted price. Hence, there exists a trade-off between the price discount and the inventory holding cost. For the ARIMA demand process, we present a model for the contract and an algorithm to find the number of the future replenishments. Numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithm is efficient and accurate.

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구매비용할인을 고려한 다회보충계약 (Multiple Replenishment Contract with Purchase Price Discount)

  • 정봉룡;김종수
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.345-351
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    • 2001
  • We are concerned with a multiple replenishment contract with a purchase price discount in a supply chain. The chain is composed of one supplier, one buyer and consumers for a product. The replenishment contract is based upon the well-known (s, Q) policy but allows contracting several firmed orders at a time with a price discount. Due to a larger forecast error of the future demand, the buyer should keep a higher level of safety stock to provide the same level of service of the usual (s, Q) policy but can reduce his purchase cost by placing larger quantity. Thus there exists a trade-off between the price discount and inventory holding cost. We present a model for the contract and an algorithm to find the optimum number of the firmed orders. Computer experiments show that the algorithm finds the global optimum solution very fast.

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VECM모형을 이용한 국내 희유금속의 수요예측모형 (A Study on Demand Forecasting Model of Domestic Rare Metal Using VECM model)

  • 김홍민;정병희
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제36권4호
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2008
  • The rare metals, used for semiconductors, PDP-LCS and other specialized metal areas necessarily, has been playing a key role for the Korean economic development. Rare metals are influenced by exogenous variables, such as production quantity, price and supplied areas. Nowadays the supply base of rare metals is threatened by the sudden increase in price. For the stable supply of rare metals, a rational demand outlook is needed. In this study, focusing on the domestic demand for chromium, the uncertainty and probability materializing from demand and price is analyzed, further, a demand forecast model, which takes into account various exogenous variables, is suggested, differing from the previously static model. Also, through the OOS(out-of-sampling) method, comparing to the preexistence ARIMA model, ARMAX model, multiple regression analysis model and ECM(Error Correction Mode) model, we will verify the superiority of suggested model in this study.

The Impact of Coordination on Stocking and Promotional Markdown Policies for a Supply Chain

  • Lee, Changhwan
    • 한국유통학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국유통학회 2000년도 추계학술대회 발표논문집
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    • pp.91-105
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    • 2000
  • Results of a study of the coordination effect in stocking and promotional markdown policies for a supply chain consisting of a retailer and a discount outlet (DCO) are reported here. We assume that the products are sold in two consecutive periods: Normal Sales Period (NSP) and subsequent Promotional Sales Period (PSP). When managers in the two periods coordinate, they share information on the demand forecast and jointly decide the stocking quantity, markdown time schedule, and markdown price to maximize mutual profit. In the absence of coordination, decisions are decentralized to optimize the individual party's objective function. Optimal coordination policy for the retailer/DCO problem setting is analyzed, and the coordination policy is compared with the uncoordinated policy to explore factors that make coordination an effective approach.

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최적 구매량 결정을 위한 QF 계약 모형 (A Quantity Flexibility Contract Model for Optimal Purchase Decision)

  • 김종수;김태영;강우석
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제31권2호
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    • pp.129-140
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    • 2006
  • Quantity Flexibility contract coordinates individually motivated supplier and buyer to the systemwide optimal outcome by effectively allocating the costs of market demand uncertainty. The main feature of the contract is to couple the buyer's commitment to purchase no less than a certain percentage below the forecast with the supplier's guarantee to deliver up to a certain percentage above. In this paper we refine the previous models by adding some realistic features including the upper and lower limits of the purchase. We also incorporate purchase and canceling costs in a cost function to reflect the real world contracting process more accurately. To obtain the solution of the model, we derive a condition for extreme points using the Leibniz's rule and construct an algorithm for finding the optimal solution of the model. Several examples illustrating the algorithm show that the approach is valid and efficient.

Agent-Based Model을 활용한 자동차 예비부품 장기수요예측 (Long-Term Demand Forecasting Using Agent-Based Model : Application on Automotive Spare Parts)

  • 이상욱;하정훈
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제38권1호
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    • pp.110-117
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    • 2015
  • Spare part management is very important to products that have large number of parts and long lifecycle such as automobile and aircraft. Supply chain must support immediate procurement for repair. However, it is not easy to handle spare parts efficiently due to huge stock keeping units. Qualified forecasting is the basis for the supply chain to achieve the goal. In this paper, we propose an agent based modeling approach that can deal with various factors simultaneously without mathematical modeling. Simulation results show that the proposed method is reasonable to describe demand generation process, and consequently, to forecast demand of spare parts in long-term perspective.

한국의 조경수 생산과 유통현황 및 수요분석 (A Study on the Demand and Status of Distribution and Production of Landscape Plants)

  • 김현준;이태영;권영휴
    • 현장농수산연구지
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.83-102
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study carried out to analyze production status, pricing trend and distribution status of landscape plants, so that it could predict the demand of landscape plants for the balance of supply and demand. The production amount of landscape plants made constantly increased. The annual output of shrubs increased more higher than that of trees. The prices of trees have raised consistently, but shrubs were susceptible to price fluctuations. And there were still many problems in the distribution structure. The landscaping work has focused on the metropolitan area. And large-scale nationwide projects were scheduled for coming years, so the demand of landscape plants was expected to expend. However, the lack of increase in production amounts of landscape plants, it is cause to supply problems. So, demand forecast was necessary to control the production of landscape plants.