• 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농공학회 2000년도 학술발표회 발표논문집
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• pp.187-192
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• 2000

The severity of drought could be evaluated by the accumulative rainfall method, soil moisture condition method, storage ratio method, and water supply restriction intensity method, etc. The pattern of drought could be forecast with the most similar pattern of accumulative rainfall out of the file of past rainfall history. The information that how much rainfall should be expected to overcome the present drought could be obtained from the reservoir storage ratio and soil moisture condition.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 1991년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.146-151
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• 1991

In recent years a reasonable supply and demand plan of construction materials which is based upon an accurate forecast has been greatly required to prevent construction works from delaying and slapdash. To meet an above requirement, a short-term forecasting system of construction materials, in this paper, is established, which is approached in engineering aspect and emerged from conventional forecasting systems. The major considerations in setting up this system are the distributed lag of consrection business indicators and seasonal variations in consumption of constuction materials.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제7권6호
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• pp.1277-1283
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• 2006

우리나라의 주민 소득수준 향상에 따른 토지수요는 수도권을 중심으로 꾸준히 증가할 것으로 예상되나 수도권에서의 가용토지는 한정되어 있고 토지공급 체계가 합리적이지 않아 토지수급에 문제가 제기되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 수도권에서의 인구변화를 기초로 주택수를 판단하여 토지수요를 예측하고 토지공급체계를 분석하여 토지 공급 개선방향을 제시하는데 목적이 있다. 연구결과 수도권에서는 2010년까지 신규 택지개발사업에 의한 주택수요량 127만호로 예측되며 이를 위해 $293km^2$ (8,855만평)의 토지수요가 있는 것으로 나타났으나 수도권에서의 토지의 용도전환이 엄격하게 제한되어 도시용 토지공급이 원활치 못한 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 수도권에서는 도시용지 공급의 중복규제 정비, 토지이용관련 규제합리화, 정부 부처간의 긴밀한 협조체제 구축, 개발용도지역과 보전용도지역의 경계조정, 농업진흥지역과 보전산지의 개념 재정립 등을 통하여 합리적인 토지공급체계 운용이 요구된다.

• 한국산업경영시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국산업경영시스템학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.343-348
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• 2002

We are concerned with a long-term replenishment contract for the ARIMA demand process in a supply chain. The chain is composed of one supplier, one buyer and consumers for a product. The replenishment contract is based upon the well-known (s, Q) policy but allows us to contract future replenishments at a time with a price discount. Due to the larger forecast error of future demand, the buyer should keep a higher level of safety stock to provide the same level of service as the usual (s, Q) policy. However, the buyer can reduce his purchase cost by ordering a larger quantity at a discounted price. Hence, there exists a trade-off between the price discount and the inventory holding cost. For the ARIMA demand process, we present a model for the contract and an algorithm to find the number of the future replenishments. Numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithm is efficient and accurate.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.345-351
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• 2001

We are concerned with a multiple replenishment contract with a purchase price discount in a supply chain. The chain is composed of one supplier, one buyer and consumers for a product. The replenishment contract is based upon the well-known (s, Q) policy but allows contracting several firmed orders at a time with a price discount. Due to a larger forecast error of the future demand, the buyer should keep a higher level of safety stock to provide the same level of service of the usual (s, Q) policy but can reduce his purchase cost by placing larger quantity. Thus there exists a trade-off between the price discount and inventory holding cost. We present a model for the contract and an algorithm to find the optimum number of the firmed orders. Computer experiments show that the algorithm finds the global optimum solution very fast.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.93-101
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• 2008

The rare metals, used for semiconductors, PDP-LCS and other specialized metal areas necessarily, has been playing a key role for the Korean economic development. Rare metals are influenced by exogenous variables, such as production quantity, price and supplied areas. Nowadays the supply base of rare metals is threatened by the sudden increase in price. For the stable supply of rare metals, a rational demand outlook is needed. In this study, focusing on the domestic demand for chromium, the uncertainty and probability materializing from demand and price is analyzed, further, a demand forecast model, which takes into account various exogenous variables, is suggested, differing from the previously static model. Also, through the OOS(out-of-sampling) method, comparing to the preexistence ARIMA model, ARMAX model, multiple regression analysis model and ECM(Error Correction Mode) model, we will verify the superiority of suggested model in this study.

• 한국유통학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국유통학회 2000년도 추계학술대회 발표논문집
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• pp.91-105
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• 2000

Results of a study of the coordination effect in stocking and promotional markdown policies for a supply chain consisting of a retailer and a discount outlet (DCO) are reported here. We assume that the products are sold in two consecutive periods: Normal Sales Period (NSP) and subsequent Promotional Sales Period (PSP). When managers in the two periods coordinate, they share information on the demand forecast and jointly decide the stocking quantity, markdown time schedule, and markdown price to maximize mutual profit. In the absence of coordination, decisions are decentralized to optimize the individual party's objective function. Optimal coordination policy for the retailer/DCO problem setting is analyzed, and the coordination policy is compared with the uncoordinated policy to explore factors that make coordination an effective approach.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.129-140
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• 2006

Quantity Flexibility contract coordinates individually motivated supplier and buyer to the systemwide optimal outcome by effectively allocating the costs of market demand uncertainty. The main feature of the contract is to couple the buyer's commitment to purchase no less than a certain percentage below the forecast with the supplier's guarantee to deliver up to a certain percentage above. In this paper we refine the previous models by adding some realistic features including the upper and lower limits of the purchase. We also incorporate purchase and canceling costs in a cost function to reflect the real world contracting process more accurately. To obtain the solution of the model, we derive a condition for extreme points using the Leibniz's rule and construct an algorithm for finding the optimal solution of the model. Several examples illustrating the algorithm show that the approach is valid and efficient.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.110-117
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• 2015

Spare part management is very important to products that have large number of parts and long lifecycle such as automobile and aircraft. Supply chain must support immediate procurement for repair. However, it is not easy to handle spare parts efficiently due to huge stock keeping units. Qualified forecasting is the basis for the supply chain to achieve the goal. In this paper, we propose an agent based modeling approach that can deal with various factors simultaneously without mathematical modeling. Simulation results show that the proposed method is reasonable to describe demand generation process, and consequently, to forecast demand of spare parts in long-term perspective.

• 현장농수산연구지
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.83-102
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• 2011

The purpose of this study carried out to analyze production status, pricing trend and distribution status of landscape plants, so that it could predict the demand of landscape plants for the balance of supply and demand. The production amount of landscape plants made constantly increased. The annual output of shrubs increased more higher than that of trees. The prices of trees have raised consistently, but shrubs were susceptible to price fluctuations. And there were still many problems in the distribution structure. The landscaping work has focused on the metropolitan area. And large-scale nationwide projects were scheduled for coming years, so the demand of landscape plants was expected to expend. However, the lack of increase in production amounts of landscape plants, it is cause to supply problems. So, demand forecast was necessary to control the production of landscape plants.