• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.62 no.2
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• pp.149-154
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• 2013

Short term load forecasting for electric power demand is essential for stable power system operation and efficient power market operation. High accuracy of the short term load forecasting can keep the power system more stable and save the power market operation cost. We propose an optimal coefficient selection method for exponential smoothing model in short term load forecasting on weekdays. In order to find the optimal coefficient of exponential smoothing model, load forecasting errors are minimized for actual electric load demand data of last three years. The proposed method are verified by case studies for last three years from 2009 to 2011. The results of case studies show that the average percentage errors of the proposed load forecasting method are improved comparing with errors of the previous methods.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.539-557
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• 1998

This article is concerned with the problem of estimating the mean of a one-parameter exponential family through sequential sampling in three stages under quadratic error loss. This more general framework differs from those considered by Hall (1981) and others. The differences are : (i) the estimator and the final stage sample size are dependent; and (ii) second order approximation of a continuously differentiable function of the final stage sample size permits evaluation of the asymptotic regret through higher order moments. In particular, the asymptotic regret can be expressed as a function of both the skewness $\rho$ and the kurtosis $\beta$ of the underlying distribution. The conditions on $\rho$ and $\beta$ for which negative regret is expected are discussed. Further results concerning the stopping variable N are also presented. We also supplement our theoretical findings wish simulation results to provide a feel for the triple sampling procedure presented in this study.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.421-433
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• 1998

In this paper, matching priors for P(X < Y) are investigated when both distributions are exponential distributions. Two recent approaches for finding noninformative priors are introduced. The first one is the verger and Bernardo's forward and backward reference priors that maximizes the expected Kullback-Liebler Divergence between posterior and prior density. The second one is the matching prior identified by matching the one sided posterior credible interval with the frequentist's desired confidence level. The general forms of the second- order matching prior are presented so that the one sided posterior credible intervals agree with the frequentist's desired confidence levels up to O(n$^{-1}$ ). The frequentist coverage probabilities of confidence sets based on several noninformative priors are compared for small sample sizes via the Monte-Carlo simulation.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.279-287
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• 2015

본 연구는 공급자(supplier), 중간공급자(distributor) 그리고 고객(customer)으로 구성된 2 단계 공급사슬에서 퇴화성 제품(deteriorating products)에 대한 중간공급자의 재고모형을 분석하였다. 문제 분석을 위해 공급자는 중간공급자의 수요 증대를 목적으로 중간공급자의 주문 크기에 따라 차별적으로 외상 기간을 허용하고, 최종 고객의 수요는 중간공급자의 재고 수준에 따라 선형적(linearly)으로 증가한다는 가정 하에 모형을 분석하였다. 중간공급자의 이익을 최대화하는 경제적 주문량 결정 방법을 제시하였고, 예제를 통하여 그 해법의 타당성을 보였으며, 민감도 분석을 통하여 퇴화율이 재고정책에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.221-227
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• 2021

An early warning system was developed to help identify stock status as early as possible. For performance to improve, there needs to be a feature to predict the amount of stock that must be provided and a feature to estimate when to buy goods. This research was conducted to improve the inventory early warning system and optimize the Reminder Block's performance in minimum stock settings. The models used in this study are the single exponential smoothing (SES) method for prediction and the economic order quantity (EOQ) model for determining the quantity. The research was conducted by analyzing the Reminder Block in the early warning system, identifying data needs, and implementing the SES and EOQ mathematical models into the Reminder Block. This research proposes a new Reminder Block that has been added to the SES and EOQ models. It is hoped that this study will help in obtaining accurate information about the time and quantity of repurchases for efficient inventory management.

• Journal of the Chungcheong Mathematical Society
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.347-361
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• 2014

Generalized Pareto distribution play an important role in reliability, extreme value theory, and other branches of applied probability and statistics. This family of distribution includes exponential distribution, Pareto or Lomax distribution. In this paper, we established exact expressions and recurrence relations satised by the quotient moments of generalized order statistics for a generalized Pareto distribution. Further the results for quotient moments of order statistics and records are deduced from the relations obtained and a theorem for characterizing this distribution is presented.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.115-125
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• 2016

The Bollinger Band indicating the current price position in the recent price action range is obtained by adding/substracting the simple standard deviation (SSD) to/from the simple moving average (SMA). In this paper, we first compare the characteristics of the SMA and the exponential moving average (EMA) in the operator's point of view. A basic equation is obtained between the interval length N of the SMA operator and the weighting factor ${\rho}$ of the EMA operator, that makes the centers of the 1st order momentums of each operator impulse respoinse identical. For equivalent N and ${\rho}$, frequency response examples are obtained and compared by using the discrete time Fourier transform. Based on observation that the SMA operator reacts more excessively than the EMA operator, we propose a novel exponential standard deviation (ESD) band centered at the EMA and derive an auto recursive formula for the proposed ESD band. Practical examples for the ESD band show that it has a smoother bound on the price action range than the Bollinger Band. Comparisons are also made for the gap corrected chart to show the advantageous feature of the ESD band even in the case of gap occurrence. Trading techniques developed for the Bollinger Band can be straight forwardly applied to those for the ESD band.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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• v.23 no.7
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• pp.831-839
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• 2012

In this paper, an exponential model of Korea is proposed to minimize an altitude-error of high-altitude target due to atmosphere refraction at radar system. The relation between surface refractivity and refractivity gradient, which is extracted using the least square fit from the measured data at 7 weather stations, is applied to the exponential model. And in order to verify the proposed model, the altitude-errors for a standard atmosphere, a CRPL(Central Radio Propagation Lab.) exponential model, the proposed model are extracted and analyzed using a ray tracing. As a result, the proposed model can improve the altitude estimation performance of radar compared to conventional atmosphere refractive index models.

• Tribology and Lubricants
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.14-20
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• 2004

In high-speed gas-levitation applications a high compressibility number may bring a numerical difficulty in predicting generated pressure profiles accurately as it causes erroneous sudden pressure overshoot and oscillation in the trailing-edge. To treat the problem, in this study an exact exponential high-order shape function is introduced in the FE lubrication analyses. It is shown by various example applications that the high-order shape function scheme can successfully subdue undesired pressure overshoot and oscillation.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.167-179
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• 2023

In this paper, we investigate solutions of equations which are linear (p, q)-difference equation of higher order by using (p, q)-derivative and integral. We also derive the solution of equation in the case of second order.