• Title/Summary/Keyword: error correction effect

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The Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Decentralization on Economic Growth: Centering The U. S. (재정분권화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구: 미국의 경우를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Won Ick
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2012
  • Estimated coefficients has serious problems including inconsistency, biasness, etc. because many researches about the effect of fiscal decentralization on a country's economic growth use the traditional OLS method. Researches use the data intactly so that so called "spurious regression" phenomenon exists. This causes fundamental fallacy. This research tries unit root test, cointegration test, and then estimates the United States' economic time series by using VECM. The analysis of the effect of the state level-fiscal decentralization on economic growth shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth move the same or different directions. In case of prediction GDP increases steeply and then from 2015 gently; and fiscal decentralization index shows a general reduction trend and then decreases slowly. At local level it shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth also move the same or different directions. Impulse response analysis shows the very negative effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth.

The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Economic Fundamentals: Evidence from Korean Panel Data (주택가격과 기초경제여건의 장기 관계: 우리나라의 패널 자료를 이용하여)

  • Sim, Sunghoon
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.3-27
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    • 2012
  • This paper adopts recently developed panel unit root test that is cross-sectionally robust. Cointegration test is also used to find whether regional house prices are in line with gross regional domestic production (GRDP) in the long run in Korea during 1989-2009. Based on the panel VECM and the panel ARDL models, we examine causal relationships among the variables and estimate the long-run elasticity. We find evidence of cointegration and bidirectional causal relationships between regional house prices and GRDP. The results of long-run estimates, using both fixed effect and ARDL models, show that house prices positively and significantly influence on the GRDP and vice versa. Together with these results, the findings of ARDL-ECM imply that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between house prices and regional economic variables even if there is a possibility of short-run deviation from its long-run path.

A Causality Analysis of the Tangerine Market by Distribution Channel (감귤시장의 유통단계별 가격 인과성 분석)

  • Kang, Seok-Kyu;Ko, Bong-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.376-381
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate price transmissions between wholesale and retail markets regarding Jeju tangerines by employing co-integration analysis and vector error correction model. The results of this study are summarized as follows: First, the long-run equilibrium relationship was found among wholesale and retail markets in time series for level by distribution channel. Second, a short-run causality relationship was observed between wholesale and retail markets. Third, the long-run causality relationship between wholesale market and retail markets was found bidirectional and feedback effect. These results imply that the wholesale price performs a central role in establishing price in the tangerine market, and the wholesale market influences tangerine price. In conclusion, for the development of a competitive tangerine industry, it is necessary to aggressively promote the policy of supply and demand control of tangerine production through organizing producers.

Comparative Analysis of the Causal Relationship between Regions of Fluctuations in the Housing Market (주택시장 변동의 지역간 인과성 비교분석)

  • Kim, Kyong-hoon;Jang, Ho-myun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.518-527
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    • 2016
  • The housing market is changing continuously according to the place and time and these changes have a ripple effect across various fields. On the other hand, the amount of housing that is consumed in the region also acts as a central cause of price movement. Moreover, the cause of variations in the housing market can be separated according to the characteristics of the housing consumer. In addition, the individual characteristics of the consumer varies according to the region. As a result, a study on the regional causal relationship of the housing market is underway. Although significant research has been done on the domestic home sales market, there has been limited research on the housing charter market. Therefore, in this paper, regional causal relationship of the housing market in the Gangnam and Gangbuk area in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province was analyzed using the vector error correction model, and is segmented by housing sale market and housing jeonse market. In addition, housing sale and housing jeonse of Gangam, Ganbuk and Gyeonggi province are defined as analysis variables, and time series data is the monthly material of June 2003 to November 2015. The results of the analysis, in the case of the housing sale market, showed that fluctuations in house prices in Gangnam area have a major influence on the fluctuations in house prices in the surrounding region. Similarly, in the case of the housing jeonse market, it was found that the jeonse price of Gangnam area has a significant impact on the jeonse price of housing in the surrounding area.

A Study on the Effect of the Facilitating Factors of B2C eCommerce on the Online Shopping and the Overseas Direct Purchase (우리나라 B2C 전자상거래 촉진요인이 온라인쇼핑과 해외직접구매에 미치는 영향 : 택배물류기업의 과제를 중심으로)

  • Jung, Seok-Mo;Park, Seung-Lak
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.27-51
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine correlations between the facilitating factors of the B2C e-commerce and the online shopping and the overseas direct purchase for the purpose of suggesting the successful logistics operational strategies for the domestic parcel delivery service companies. This paper conducts wide literature reviews and empirical analyses on relationships between the facilitating factors of B2C e-commerce and the online shopping and the overseas direct purchase in B2C e-commerce. We built two regression equations that dependable variables are the turnover of online shopping and the amount of imports by international postal logistics services respectively. The former equation's estimation results show that all the independable variables are affecting the dependable variable in the long-term jointly. And, the results show that the change of the turnover of online shopping is affected not only by the change of the usage count of a credit card and the real GDP, but also by the change of the error-correction variable. The latter equation's estimation results show that all the independable variables are affecting the dependable variable in the long-term jointly. Futhermore, the results show that the change of the amount of imports by international postal logistics services is affected not only by the change of the usage count of a credit card, the exchange rate and the internet protocol IPv4, but also by the change of the error-correction variable. Based on these research results, a high advanced strategic approach for optimum parcel delivery services is highly required.

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Is BTC Oil Pipeline Good or Bad for Azerbaijan Economy? (BTC 파이프라인이 아제르바이잔 경제에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Hwang, Yun Seop;Kim, Soo Eun;Choi, Young Jun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.413-440
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    • 2010
  • Since 2000, as importance of sourcing energy emphasized caused by instability of international oil price, interests toward Caspian countries as an alternative markets has increased. Especially, Azerbaijan, as middle Asian emerging exporting country, has performed drastic economic boom because of massive amount of foreign capital flowed in and construction of BTC pipeline. However, despite this economic surge, there are unbalanced economy which is merely focusing on energy industry and pressure from increase in real exchange rate and inflation. In order to analyze the sustainability of Azerbaijan economy, the total sample time period of this paper is from January 2001 to December 2007 and the term is divided into before and after BTC line construction. Vector Error-Correction Model has been applied to analysis confirming short-term and long-term effect. As a result, Azerbaijan now face the symptoms of the recession during the time period and this is due to high oil price and increase in export influenced by BTC oil pipeline resulting in decrease in real interest rate. This conclusion is to affect competitiveness of manufacturing industry, base industry for economic proliferation, in a negative way.

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A study on the impact of carbon tax on carbon dioxide emission, energy use and green growth: Focusing on Finland and 4 others (탄소세 도입이 탄소배출량과 에너지 사용 및 경제성장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 핀란드 외 4개국을 중심으로)

  • Chung, Sang-Kuck;Kim, Seong-Ki
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.495-522
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    • 2011
  • In this study, a vector error correction model is considered to analyze the correlations among carbon emission, energy use and economic growth using countries adopted carbon tax such as Finland, Netherland, Newzealand, Sweden, and United Kingdom in the short-run dynamics. In order to examine the effect of a carbon tax on the carbon emission specifically for Finland, New zealand and Sweden in the cointegration coefficients among variables, the economic growth equation has the statistically significant negative value(positive values for Netherland and UK). This implies that in the case of the deviation from a long-run equilibrium all variables except carbon emission and energy use are adjusted toward decreasing. After introducing a carbon tax, all variables for Finland, New zealand and Sweden appear to be negative and positive values for the other countries. The evidence that the carbon emission and energy use have been decreased is very weak in the short-run for Finland, New zealand and Sweden but the economic growth is on the decrease after a carbon tax. However, the empirical results show that the increase in carbon emission leads to the decrease in production for Netherland and UK. This implies that for reducing the carbon emission, these countries need to provide more aggressive policies.

Contact lens Prescription and Satisfaction with Astigmatism Eye (난시안의 콘택트렌즈 처방과 만족도에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Mi-Yeon;Kim, Yeong-Mi;Kim, Tae-Hun;Sung, A-Young
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.317-322
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    • 2006
  • For this study we made up a question investigation to analyze a grade of satisfaction and a side effect about the prescription actual condition of contact lens of person with astigmatism among the person who has a error of refraction. The whole patient of refractive error was 46 person, there were 11 person who only wear spectacles by correction of visual acuity among person to a question investigation and 35 person who only wear contact lens. Under investigation 35 person who only wear contact lens, there were 25 person who experience the problem which occurs because of contact lens wearing for a long time. The most patient who made up a question investigation very choose remainder item except for item of very satisfaction. The their reason that could not satisfaction was non corrected astigmatism, wrong prescription, wrong Base curve, out of life span etc.

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Development of a Surface Roughness Measurement Method Using Reflected Laser Beam Image and Its Application (레이저광 반사 화상을 이용한 표면 거칠기 측정법의 개발과 적용)

  • Yun, Yun-Feng-Shen;Kim, haa-young;An, jung-hwan;Chi, ei-jon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.18 no.11
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2001
  • A light beam reflected from a machined surface generally containes information concerning about its surface roughness. This study examines and proposes a surface roughness measurement technique for on-machine measurement of machined surfaces. The technique is based on the measurement of a reflected laser beam pattern and the statistical analysis of its light intensity distribution. The surface roughness was found to be closely related to the standard deviation of the light intensity on the primary axis of the reflected pattern. An image acquisition device is made up of a laser diode, a half mirror, a screen, and a CCD camera. The exact image with the primary and secondary axes of a reflected laser beam pattern is calculated through such image processing algorithm as thresholding, edge detection, image rotation, segmentation, etc. A median filter and a surrounding light correction algorithm are improve the image quality and reduce the measuring error. Using the developed measuring device the effect of screen materials and workpiece and workpiece materials was investigated. Experimental results regarding to relatively high-quality surfaces machined by grinding, polishing, lapping processes have shown the measurement error is within 10% in the range of $0.1{mu}m~0.8{\mu}m R_q.$Therefore, the proposed method is thought to be effectively used when quick measurements is needed with workpieces fixed on the machine.

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Thermal Performance Test of the On-Board Blackbody System in the orbital environment for Non-Uniformity Correction of an Infrared Sensor (적외선 센서 교정용 위성 탑재 흑체 시스템의 궤도 환경 열성능 평가 시험)

  • Pil-Gyeong, Choi;Hye-In, Kim;Hyun-Ung, Oh;Byung-Cheol, Yoo;Kyoung-Muk, Lee;Jin-Suk, Hong
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.90-98
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    • 2022
  • The output of an infrared (IR) sensor mounted on an EO/IR payload is known to change during a mission period in an orbital environment. As it is required to calibrate the output of the IR sensor periodically to obtain high-quality images, an on-board black body system is mounted on the payload. All systems operating in the space environment require performance tests on ground to verify the target performance in the orbital environment. Therefore, it is also required to test the black body system to verify the performance of the surface temperature uniformity and the estimated representative temperature error within the target temperature range in the operating environment. In this study, calibration of the estimated representative temperature error and verification of the thermal performance of the black body system were conducted by performed a performance test in the thermal vacuum chamber applying deep space radiation cooling effect of an orbital environment.