Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5762/KAIS.2016.17.3.518

Comparative Analysis of the Causal Relationship between Regions of Fluctuations in the Housing Market  

Kim, Kyong-hoon (Division of Construction Policy Research, KICT)
Jang, Ho-myun (Division of Occupational Health & Safety Engineering, Semyung University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society / v.17, no.3, 2016 , pp. 518-527 More about this Journal
Abstract
The housing market is changing continuously according to the place and time and these changes have a ripple effect across various fields. On the other hand, the amount of housing that is consumed in the region also acts as a central cause of price movement. Moreover, the cause of variations in the housing market can be separated according to the characteristics of the housing consumer. In addition, the individual characteristics of the consumer varies according to the region. As a result, a study on the regional causal relationship of the housing market is underway. Although significant research has been done on the domestic home sales market, there has been limited research on the housing charter market. Therefore, in this paper, regional causal relationship of the housing market in the Gangnam and Gangbuk area in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province was analyzed using the vector error correction model, and is segmented by housing sale market and housing jeonse market. In addition, housing sale and housing jeonse of Gangam, Ganbuk and Gyeonggi province are defined as analysis variables, and time series data is the monthly material of June 2003 to November 2015. The results of the analysis, in the case of the housing sale market, showed that fluctuations in house prices in Gangnam area have a major influence on the fluctuations in house prices in the surrounding region. Similarly, in the case of the housing jeonse market, it was found that the jeonse price of Gangnam area has a significant impact on the jeonse price of housing in the surrounding area.
Keywords
Housing Transaction Market; Housing Jeonse Market; Spatial Casulity; Vector Error Correction Model;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 J. H. Kim, M. J. Lee, "An Empirical Analysis of Jonsei Deposit Ratio in Seoul Housing Market," Journal of Korean Regional Science Association, vol.5, No. 1, pp. 13-26, 1989.
2 S. Y. Kim, "The Correlation among Sale Price, Chonsei Price and Chonsei/Sale Price Ration With the Structural Changes," Master Degree of Konkuk University, 2013.
3 J. J. Youn, M. S. Choi, “Study about long-term and short-term synchronization of trading volume in Gangnam-gu and its surrounding areas,” Journal of Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies, Vol. 22, No. 1, pp. 105-128, 2014.
4 J. H. Jung, J. S. Yu, “A Study on the Interregional Causality and Space-time Spillover Effects of the Housing Price and the Trade Volume: Focused on the Apartment Market in the Metropolitan Area,” Journal of Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies, Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 177-203, 2011.
5 T. K. Hwang, "Interjurisdictional analysis of housing price in Seoul metropolitan area," Master Degree of Konkuk University, 2003.
6 B. G. Jang, “Spillover Effect and its Time-varying Characteristics in the Korean Housing Market,” Journal of Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 5-28, 2014.
7 S. U, Park, H. H. KIM, S. G. Seol, “The Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of House Prices in Korea,” Journal of Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 127-155, 2012.
8 S. Y. Jung, "study on the Interregional Causality of Housing Price Variations," Master Degree of Hanyang University, 2010.
9 S. J. Park, "Study on the spatial causality analysis of housing price variation by housing size : Focused on the Capital Region in Korea," Master Degree of Hanyang University, 2010.
10 G. T. Lim, "An Empirical Study on Effect of the Perfect Opening of Korean Stock Market on KOSPI and Interrelationship between Each Investor Group," Master Degree of Dongkuk University, 2002
11 H. S. Lee, "Study on the Influence of Macroeconomic Factors upon the Housing Transaction and the Jeonse Rental Index," Doctor Degree of Dongkuk University, 2007
12 J. C. Park, "The Mutual Relationship among Interest, Apartment Prices and Stock Prices by Using VECM," Doctor Degree of Donga University, 2007
13 M. G, Ahan, H. Mun, J. J. Kim(2006), "The Impacts of Construction Investment related Building Permit Area Indicator ," Journal of Architectural institute of Korea, Vol. 22, No. 12, pp. 155-164, 2006
14 H. S. Kim, "A Study on Rising Rate of Rental Deposits on Housing Price: Focusing on Apartments in 6Gu-Districts in Seoul," Master Degree of Konkuk University, 2012.
15 S. H, Jo, "A Study of The Effect of Housing Policy and Macroeconomic Variables on Housing Price," Master Degree of Mokwon University, 2012.
16 J. W. Choi, "Analysis of the Determinants of Changes in the Real Estate Prices in Korea," Master Degree of Yonsei University, 2006.
17 J. D. Shim, "Cointegration Analysis on the Determinants of Markup in Korean Manufacturing Industries : ECM(1975-2005)," Master Degree of kwandong University, 2009.
18 D. Y. Yang, "The Effects of Oil Price Changes on the Industrial Stock Index," Master Degree of Sungkyunkwan University, 2009.
19 Y. J. Hwang, "A Study on the Dynamic Relation to the Housing Market indicators-A Case Study of Apartment Market in Busan-," Doctor Degree of Youngsan University, 2013.