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Assessing the resilience of urban water management to climate change

  • James A. Griffiths
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.32-32
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    • 2023
  • Incidences of urban flood and extreme heat waves (due to the urban heat island effect) are expected to increase in New Zealand under future climate change (IPCC 2022; MfE 2020). Increasingly, the mitigation of such events will depend on the resilience of a range Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) used in Sustainable Urban Drainage Schemes (SUDS), or Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) (Jamei and Tapper 2019; Johnson et al 2021). Understanding the impact of changing precipitation and temperature regimes due climate change is therefore critical to the long-term resilience of such urban infrastructure and design. Cuthbert et al (2022) have assessed the trade-offs between the water retention and cooling benefits of different urban greening methods (such as WSUD) relative to global location and climate. Using the Budyko water-energy balance framework (Budyko 1974), they demonstrated that the potential for water infiltration and storage (thus flood mitigation) was greater where potential evaporation is high relative to precipitation. Similarly, they found that the potential for mitigation of drought conditions was greater in cooler environments. Subsequently, Jaramillo et al. (2022) have illustrated the locations worldwide that will deviate from their current Budyko curve characteristic under climate change scenarios, as the relationship between actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) changes relative to precipitation. Using the above approach we assess the impact of future climate change on the urban water-energy balance in three contrasting New Zealand cities (Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Invercargill). The variation in Budyko curve characteristics is then used to describe expected changes in water storage and cooling potential in each urban area as a result of climate change. The implications of the results are then considered with respect to existing WSUD guidelines according to both the current and future climate in each location. It was concluded that calculation of Budyko curve deviation due to climate change could be calculated for any location and land-use type combination in New Zealand and could therefore be used to advance the general understanding of climate change impacts. Moreover, the approach could be used to better define the concept of urban infrastructure resilience and contribute to a better understanding of Budyko curve dynamics under climate change (questions raised by Berghuijs et al 2020)). Whilst this knowledge will assist in implementation of national climate change adaptation (MfE, 2022; UNEP, 2022) and improve climate resilience in urban areas in New Zealand, the approach could be repeated for any global location for which present and future mean precipitation and temperature conditions are known.

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A Study for Quality of Life in Musically Talented Students Using Experience Sampling Method (경험표집법(ESM)을 통해 본 음악영재의 삶의 질)

  • Lee, Hyun-Joo;Choe, In-Soo
    • Journal of Gifted/Talented Education
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.57-81
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study was to explore the quality of life of musically talented students as measured by their external experiences (e.g., activities, companions) and internal experiences (e.g., flow, emotion). The participants in this study were 33 musically talented students (10 males, 23 females) aged 13 to 19. Study data were collected for 7 consecutive days using the Experience Sampling Method (ESM), which employs a cellular-phone as a signaling device. The results were as follows: First, in response to the 1625 random signals, musically talented students reported that 40.9% of their time was spent on productive activities. An additional 33.4% of time was used for maintenance activities and the rest of their time was spent on leisure/social activities. Also, musically talented students reported that 48.5% of their time was spent alone. When they were alone, they spent a lot of time engaging in productive activities (44.3%). Second, in order to measure the flow of their life, two methods were used. One used a 4-channel flow model (i.e. apathy, boredom, flow, anxiety) and the other used 8 dimensions and conditions of the flow experience (i.e. concentration, self-consciousness disappears, action and awareness merge, distorted sense of time, freedom from worry about failure, clear goals, immediate feedback, balance between challenges and skills). According to the former, when engaged in music-related activities, musically talented students usually reported flow (54.0%), while they felt apathy (41.3%) for daily routines activities. According to the latter method, musically talented students experienced flow for most productive activities, while they experienced flow least for maintenance activities. Emotional variables of ESF are comprised of 10 semantic scales (i.e. happy-sad, strong-weak, active-passive, sociablelonely, proud-ashamed, involved-detached, excited-bored, clear-confused, relaxed-worried, cooperative-competitive). Musically talented students reported experiencing the most positive emotion for social activities and experiencing the most negative emotion for maintenance activities. Results of this study assert that musically talented students had to trade off immediate enjoyment for developing their special gifts. They could not afford as much time for socializing with friends, and they had to spend more time alone compared to their peers without such gifts. Consequently, they were found to deprive themselves of the spontaneous good times that teenagers usually thrive on. They were helped in this respect by their autotelic personality traits, especially their strong need for achievement and endurance. The downside, however, is that the moment-to-moment quality of their moods suffered. The argument concerning musically talented students applies for all adolescents. The choices that talented students must make between immediate gratification and long-term development, and between solitude and companionship, are the same choices every young person must make, regardless of her or his level of talent. All of us have gifts that are potentially useful and worthy of being appreciated. But to develop these latent talents we must cultivate them, and this takes time and the investment of mental energy. The lifestyle that musically talented students develop can show us some of the choices all of us must make in order to cultivate our gifts.

Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA)-Based Assessment of a Rice Cultivation System in Gimje, Korea (한국 김제의 벼 경작 시스템의 기후스마트농업 (Climate-Smart Agriculture) 기반의 평가)

  • Talucder, Mohammad Samiul Ahsan;Kim, Joon;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.235-250
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    • 2021
  • The overarching question of this study is how a typical rice cultivation system in Gimje, Korea was keeping up with the triple-win challenge of climate-smart agriculture (CSA). To answer this question, we have employed (1) quantitative data from direct measurement of energy, water, carbon and information flows in and out of a rice cultivation system and (2) appropriate metrics to assess production, efficiency, GHG fluxes, and resilience. The study site was one of the Korean Network of Flux measurement (KoFlux) sites (i.e., GRK) located at Gimje, Korea, managed by National Academy of Agricultural Science, Rural Development Administration. Fluxes of energy, water, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) were directly measured using eddy-covariance technique during the growing seasons of 2011, 2012 and 2014. The production indicators include gross primary productivity (GPP), grain yield, light use efficiency (LUE), water use efficiency (WUE), and carbon uptake efficiency (CUE). The GHG mitigation was assessed with indicators such as fluxes of carbon dioxide (FCO2), methane (FCH4), and nitrous oxide (FN2O). Resilience was assessed in terms of self-organization (S), using information-theoretic approach. Overall, the results demonstrated that the rice cultivation system at GRK was climate-smart in 2011 in a relative sense but failed to maintain in the following years. Resilience was high and changed little for three year. However, the apparent competing goals or trade-offs between productivity and GHG mitigation were found within individual years as well as between the years, causing difficulties in achieving the triple-win scenario. The pursuit of CSA requires for stakeholders to prioritize their goals (i.e., governance) and to practice opportune interventions (i.e., management) based on the feedback from real-time assessment of the CSA indicators (i.e., monitoring) - i.e., a purpose-driven visioneering.

Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

A Study for Strategy of On-line Shopping Mall: Based on Customer Purchasing and Re-purchasing Pattern (시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 활용한 온라인 쇼핑몰의 전략에 관한 연구 : 소비자의 구매 및 재구매 행동을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Sang-Gun;Min, Suk-Ki;Kang, Min-Cheol
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.91-121
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    • 2008
  • Electronic commerce, commonly known as e-commerce or eCommerce, has become a major business trend in these days. The amount of trade conducted electronically has grown extraordinarily by developing the Internet technology. Most electronic commerce has being conducted between businesses to customers; therefore, the researches with respect to e-commerce are to find customer's needs, behaviors through statistical methods. However, the statistical researches, mostly based on a questionnaire, are the static researches, They can tell us the dynamic relationships between initial purchasing and repurchasing. Therefore, this study proposes dynamic research model for analyzing the cause of initial purchasing and repurchasing. This paper is based on the System-Dynamic theory, using the powerful simulation model with some restriction, The restrictions are based on the theory TAM(Technology Acceptance Model), PAM, and TPB(Theory of Planned Behavior). This article investigates not only the customer's purchasing and repurchasing behavior by passing of time but also the interactive effects to one another. This research model has six scenarios and three steps for analyzing customer behaviors. The first step is the research of purchasing situations. The second step is the research of repurchasing situations. Finally, the third step is to study the relationship between initial purchasing and repurchasing. The purpose of six scenarios is to find the customer's purchasing patterns according to the environmental changes. We set six variables in these scenarios by (1) changing the number of products; (2) changing the number of contents in on-line shopping malls; (3) having multimedia files or not in the shopping mall web sites; (4) grading on-line communities; (5) changing the qualities of products; (6) changing the customer's degree of confidence on products. First three variables are applied to study customer's purchasing behavior, and the other variables are applied to repurchasing behavior study. Through the simulation study, this paper presents some inter-relational result about customer purchasing behaviors, For example, Active community actions are not the increasing factor of purchasing but the increasing factor of word of mouth effect, Additionally. The higher products' quality, the more word of mouth effects increase. The number of products and contents on the web sites have same influence on people's buying behaviors. All simulation methods in this paper is not only display the result of each scenario but also find how to affect each other. Hence, electronic commerce firm can make more realistic marketing strategy about consumer behavior through this dynamic simulation research. Moreover, dynamic analysis method can predict the results which help the decision of marketing strategy by using the time-line graph. Consequently, this dynamic simulation analysis could be a useful research model to make firm's competitive advantage. However, this simulation model needs more further study. With respect to reality, this simulation model has some limitations. There are some missing factors which affect customer's buying behaviors in this model. The first missing factor is the customer's degree of recognition of brands. The second factor is the degree of customer satisfaction. The third factor is the power of word of mouth in the specific region. Generally, word of mouth affects significantly on a region's culture, even people's buying behaviors. The last missing factor is the user interface environment in the internet or other on-line shopping tools. In order to get more realistic result, these factors might be essential matters to make better research in the future studies.

Perfluoropolymer Membranes of Tetrafluoroethylene and 2,2,4Trifluofo- 5Trifluorometoxy- 1,3Dioxole.

  • Arcella, V.;Colaianna, P.;Brinati, G.;Gordano, A.;Clarizia, G.;Tocci, E.;Drioli, E.
    • Proceedings of the Membrane Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1999.07a
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    • pp.39-42
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    • 1999
  • Perfluoropolymers represent the ultimate resistance to hostile chemical environments and high service temperature, attributed to the presence of fluorine in the polymer backbone, i.e. to the high bond energy of C-F and C-C bonds of fluorocarbons. Copolymers of Tetrafluoroethylene (TEE) and 2, 2, 4Trifluoro-5Trifluorometoxy- 1, 3Dioxole (TTD), commercially known as HYFLON AD, are amorphous perfluoropolymers with glass transition temperature (Tg)higher than room temperature, showing a thermal decomposition temperature exceeding 40$0^{\circ}C$. These polymer systems are highly soluble in fluorinated solvents, with low solution viscosities. This property allows the preparation of self-supported and composite membranes with desired membrane thickness. Symmetric and asymmetric perfluoropolymer membranes, made with HYFLON AD, have been prepared and evaluated. Porous and not porous symmetric membranes have been obtained by solvent evaporation with various processing conditions. Asymmetric membranes have been prepared by th wet phase inversion method. Measure of contact angle to distilled water have been carried out. Figure 1 compares experimental results with those of other commercial membranes. Contact angles of about 120$^{\circ}$for our amorphous perfluoropolymer membranes demonstrate that they posses a high hydrophobic character. Measure of contact angles to hexandecane have been also carried out to evaluate the organophobic character. Rsults are reported in Figure 2. The observed strong organophobicity leads to excellent fouling resistance and inertness. Porous membranes with pore size between 30 and 80 nanometers have shown no permeation to water at pressures as high as 10 bars. However high permeation to gases, such as O2, N2 and CO2, and no selectivities were observed. Considering the porous structure of the membrane, this behavior was expected. In consideration of the above properties, possible useful uses in th field of gas- liquid separations are envisaged for these membranes. A particularly promising application is in the field of membrane contactors, equipments in which membranes are used to improve mass transfer coefficients in respect to traditional extraction and absorption processes. Gas permeation properties have been evaluated for asymmetric membranes and composite symmetric ones. Experimental permselectivity values, obtained at different pressure differences, to various single gases are reported in Tab. 1, 2 and 3. Experimental data have been compared with literature data obtained with membranes made with different amorphous perfluoropolymer systems, such as copolymers of Perfluoro2, 2dimethyl dioxole (PDD) and Tetrafluorethylene, commercialized by the Du Pont Company with the trade name of Teflon AF. An interesting linear relationship between permeability and the glass transition temperature of the polymer constituting the membrane has been observed. Results are descussed in terms of polymer chain structure, which affects the presence of voids at molecular scale and their size distribution. Molecular Dyanmics studies are in progress in order to support the understanding of these results. A modified Theodoru- Suter method provided by the Amorphous Cell module of InsightII/Discover was used to determine the chain packing. A completely amorphous polymer box of about 3.5 nm was considered. Last but not least the use of amorphous perfluoropolymer membranes appears to be ideal when separation processes have to be performed in hostile environments, i.e. high temperatures and aggressive non-aqueous media, such as chemicals and solvents. In these cases Hyflon AD membranes can exploit the outstanding resistance of perfluoropolymers.

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A Study about the Correlation between Information on Stock Message Boards and Stock Market Activity (온라인 주식게시판 정보와 주식시장 활동에 관한 상관관계 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun Mo;Yoon, Ho Young;Soh, Ry;Park, Jae Hong
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.559-575
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    • 2014
  • Individual investors are increasingly flocking to message boards to seek, clarify, and exchange information. Businesses like Seekingalpha.com and business magazines like Fortune are evaluating, synthesizing, and reporting the comments made on message boards or blogs. In March of 2012, Yahoo! Finance Message Boards recorded 45 million unique visitors per month followed by AOL Money and Finance (19.8 million), and Google Finance (1.6 million) [McIntyre, 2012]. Previous studies in the finance literature suggest that online communities often provide more accurate information than analyst forecasts [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006]. Some studies empirically show that the volume of posts in online communities have a positive relationship with market activities (e.g., trading volumes) [Antweiler and Frank, 2004; Bagnoli et al., 1999; Das and Chen, 2007; Tumarkin and Whitelaw, 2001]. The findings indicate that information in online communities does impact investors' investment decisions and trading behaviors. However, research explicating the correlation between information on online communities and stock market activities (e.g., trading volume) is still evolving. Thus, it is important to ask whether a volume of posts on online communities influences trading volumes and whether trading volumes also influence these communities. Online stock message boards offer two different types of information, which can be explained using an economic and a psychological perspective. From a purely economic perspective, one would expect that stock message boards would have a beneficial effect, since they provide timely information at a much lower cost [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006; Birchler and Butler, 2007]. This indicates that information in stock message boards may provide valuable information investors can use to predict stock market activities and thus may use to make better investment decisions. On the other hand, psychological studies have shown that stock message boards may not necessarily make investors more informed. The related literature argues that confirmation bias causes investors to seek other investors with the same opinions on these stock message boards [Chen and Gu, 2009; Park et al., 2013]. For example, investors may want to share their painful investment experiences with others on stock message boards and are relieved to find they are not alone. In this case, the information on these stock message boards mainly reflects past experience or past information and not valuable and predictable information for market activities. This study thus investigates the two roles of stock message boards-providing valuable information to make future investment decisions or sharing past experiences that reflect mainly investors' painful or boastful stories. If stock message boards do provide valuable information for stock investment decisions, then investors will use this information and thereby influence stock market activities (e.g., trading volume). On the contrary, if investors made investment decisions and visit stock message boards later, they will mainly share their past experiences with others. In this case, past activities in the stock market will influence the stock message boards. These arguments indicate that there is a correlation between information posted on stock message boards and stock market activities. The previous literature has examined the impact of stock sentiments or the number of posts on stock market activities (e.g., trading volume, volatility, stock prices). However, the studies related to stock sentiments found it difficult to obtain significant results. It is not easy to identify useful information among the millions of posts, many of which can be just noise. As a result, the overall sentiments of stock message boards often carry little information for future stock movements [Das and Chen, 2001; Antweiler and Frank, 2004]. This study notes that as a dependent variable, trading volume is more reliable for capturing the effect of stock message board activities. The finance literature argues that trading volume is an indicator of stock price movements [Das et al., 2005; Das and Chen, 2007]. In this regard, this study investigates the correlation between a number of posts (information on stock message boards) and trading volume (stock market activity). We collected about 100,000 messages of 40 companies at KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) from Paxnet, the most popular Korean online stock message board. The messages we collected were divided into in-trading and after-trading hours to examine the correlation between the numbers of posts and trading volumes in detail. Also we collected the volume of the stock of the 40 companies. The vector regression analysis and the granger causality test, 3SLS analysis were performed on our panel data sets. We found that the number of posts on online stock message boards is positively related to prior stock trade volume. Also, we found that the impact of the number of posts on stock trading volumes is not statistically significant. Also, we empirically showed the correlation between stock trading volumes and the number of posts on stock message boards. The results of this study contribute to the IS and finance literature in that we identified online stock message board's two roles. Also, this study suggests that stock trading managers should carefully monitor information on stock message boards to understand stock market activities in advance.

A Study on the Institutional Improvement Directions of Industrial Security Programs: Focused upon Policies and Practices in the U.S. (산업보안의 제도적 발전방안 연구: 미국 사례를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Justin Jin-Hyuk
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.22
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    • pp.197-230
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    • 2010
  • This study examined the institutional improvement directions of industrial security programs, particularly focusing upon policies and practices in the U.S., to enhance the effectiveness of industrial security programs in Korea. This study also aimed to investigate the significance of institutional and/or policy implementations in preventing economic espionage attempt. Data leakage and/or loss of trade secrets in corporations has been a scary proposition and a serious headache to both the CEOs and the CSOs(Chief Security Officers). Security professionals or practitioners have always had to deal with data leakage issues that arise from e-mail, instant messaging(IM), and other Internet communication channels. In addition, with the proliferation of wireless and mobile technology, it's now much easier than ever for loss by data breaches to occur, whether accidentally or maliciously or even by an economic espionage attempt. The researcher in this study used both a case study and a comparative research to analyze the different strategies and approaches between the U.S. and Korea in regard of implementing policies to mitigate damages by economic espionage attempts and prevent them from occurring. The researcher first examined the current policies and practices in the U.S. in terms of federal government's and agencies' approach and strategies on industrial security programs and their partnerships with private-commercial-sectors. The purpose of this paper is to explain and suggest selected findings, and a discussion of actions to be taken on implementing a proactive and tactical approach to enhance the effectiveness of industrial security programs to fight against information loss or data leaks. This study used case reviews, literatures, newspapers, articles, and Internet resources relating to the subject of this study for triangulation of data. The findings during this research are as follows. This research suggests that both the private and the governmental sector should closely cooperate in the filed of industrial security to strengthen its traditional prevention strategies and reduce opportunities of economic espionage as well. This study finally recognizes both the very importance of institutional development led by the Government in preventing economic espionage attempts and its effectiveness when properly united with effective industrial security programs.

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DEVELOPMENT OF SAFETY-BASED LEVEL-OF-SERVICE CRITERIA FOR ISOLATED SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS (독립신호 교차로에서의 교통안전을 위한 서비스수준 결정방법의 개발)

  • Dr. Tae-Jun Ha
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.3-32
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    • 1995
  • The Highway Capacity Manual specifies procedures for evaluating intersection performance in terms of delay per vehicle. What is lacking in the current methodology is a comparable quantitative procedure for ass~ssing the safety-based level of service provided to motorists. The objective of the research described herein was to develop a computational procedure for evaluating the safety-based level of service of signalized intersections based on the relative hazard of alternative intersection designs and signal timing plans. Conflict opportunity models were developed for those crossing, diverging, and stopping maneuvers which are associated with left-turn and rear-end accidents. Safety¬based level-of-service criteria were then developed based on the distribution of conflict opportunities computed from the developed models. A case study evaluation of the level of service analysis methodology revealed that the developed safety-based criteria were not as sensitive to changes in prevailing traffic, roadway, and signal timing conditions as the traditional delay-based measure. However, the methodology did permit a quantitative assessment of the trade-off between delay reduction and safety improvement. The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) specifies procedures for evaluating intersection performance in terms of a wide variety of prevailing conditions such as traffic composition, intersection geometry, traffic volumes, and signal timing (1). At the present time, however, performance is only measured in terms of delay per vehicle. This is a parameter which is widely accepted as a meaningful and useful indicator of the efficiency with which an intersection is serving traffic needs. What is lacking in the current methodology is a comparable quantitative procedure for assessing the safety-based level of service provided to motorists. For example, it is well¬known that the change from permissive to protected left-turn phasing can reduce left-turn accident frequency. However, the HCM only permits a quantitative assessment of the impact of this alternative phasing arrangement on vehicle delay. It is left to the engineer or planner to subjectively judge the level of safety benefits, and to evaluate the trade-off between the efficiency and safety consequences of the alternative phasing plans. Numerous examples of other geometric design and signal timing improvements could also be given. At present, the principal methods available to the practitioner for evaluating the relative safety at signalized intersections are: a) the application of engineering judgement, b) accident analyses, and c) traffic conflicts analysis. Reliance on engineering judgement has obvious limitations, especially when placed in the context of the elaborate HCM procedures for calculating delay. Accident analyses generally require some type of before-after comparison, either for the case study intersection or for a large set of similar intersections. In e.ither situation, there are problems associated with compensating for regression-to-the-mean phenomena (2), as well as obtaining an adequate sample size. Research has also pointed to potential bias caused by the way in which exposure to accidents is measured (3, 4). Because of the problems associated with traditional accident analyses, some have promoted the use of tqe traffic conflicts technique (5). However, this procedure also has shortcomings in that it.requires extensive field data collection and trained observers to identify the different types of conflicts occurring in the field. The objective of the research described herein was to develop a computational procedure for evaluating the safety-based level of service of signalized intersections that would be compatible and consistent with that presently found in the HCM for evaluating efficiency-based level of service as measured by delay per vehicle (6). The intent was not to develop a new set of accident prediction models, but to design a methodology to quantitatively predict the relative hazard of alternative intersection designs and signal timing plans.

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The Knowledge Transfer Network and Performance of Chinese Subsidiary in Korean MNCs : Focusing on Roles of Absorptive Capacity and Entry Mode (한국 다국적기업의 중국 자회사의 지식이전, 네트워크와 경영성과에 관한 연구 - 흡수능력과 진입방식의 역할을 중심으로 -)

  • Yoon, Ki-Chang
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.325-351
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    • 2016
  • This study empirically investigated the relationship among knowledge transfer, network(firm network and government network) and performance Korean MNCs' subsidiaries in terms of absorptive capacity and entry mode roles in China. For this, absorptive capacity was established as an independent variable, mediating variable, and moderating variable. And the entry mode was divided into single investment and joint venture and set to the moderating variable. Data for the analysis of actual proof was randomly selected from the companies which was established more than 3 years before KOTRA 'The overseas expansion Korean company directory (2014)'. Questionnaires to 138 Chinese subsidiaries of Korean MNCs were collected by FAX and E-mail. AMOS was utilized and collected data investigated the role of the absorption capacity and entry mode as the covariance structure analysis. The empirical analysis showed that absorption capacity has a direct influence on management performance as an independent variable with the network (firm network and government network). It only has a partial mediating role between enterprise networks and management performance, and no meaningful result was gained as its moderationg role bewteen the exogenous variable and management performance. And in terms of Korean companies' moderating role in entering China, they have a moderating role between government network, absorption capacity and management performance, but did not show a statistically significant result between knowledge transfer, enterprise network and management performance. Absorption capacity, as the variable affecting overseas subsidiary's management performance, should not be considered a mediating or moderating variable, but an independent variable. Since the joint venture is showing higher performance than single investment when going into the Chinese market, implication is provided for options in overseas expansion. But this research has the limitation in generalization because it is aiming at the subsidiaries of the Korean company investing in China. Therefore, it is more desirable in the future to conduct a study of the subsidiary of the Korean company entering several countries. It also has limitations in generalization, because the research was conducted using a limited number of variables, despite there are various factors affecting the management performance of Chinese subsidiaries.

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