• 한국안전학회지
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.70-76
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• 1998

The smoke filling process for the atrium space containing a fire source is simulated using two types of deterministic fire models : Zone model and Field model. The zone model used is the CFAST(version 1.6) model developed at the Building and Fire Research Laboratories, NIST in the USA. The field model is a self-developed fire field model based on Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD) theories. This article is focused on finding out the smoke movement and temperature distribution in atrium space which is cubic in shape. A computational procedure for predicting velocity and temperature distribution in fire-induced flow is based on the solution, in finite volume method and non-staggered grid system, of 3-dimensional equations for the conservation of mass, momentum, energy, species and so forth. The fire model i. e. Zone model and Field model predicted similar results for the clear height and the smoke layer temperature.

• 동력기계공학회지
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.72-80
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• 2000

In order to design a stable robust controller, nominal model, and the upper bound about the uncertainty which is the error of the model are needed. The problem to estimate the nominal model of controlled system and the upper bound of uncertainty at the same time is called robust identification. When the nominal model of controlled system and the upper bound of uncertainty in relation to robust identification are given, the evaluation of the validity of the model and the upper bound makes it possible to distinguish whether there is a model which explains observation data including disturbance among the model set. This paper suggests a method to identity the uncertainty which removes disturbance and expounds observation data by giving a probable postulation and plural data set to disturbance. It also examines the suggested method through a numerical computation simulation and validates its effectiveness.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.61-72
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• 1991

A lumped deterministic model(DAWAST model) was developed to predict the daily streamflow. Since the streamflow is dominantly determined by the soil water storage in the watershed, the model takes the soil water accounting procedures which are based on three linear reservoirs representing the surface, unsaturated, and saturated soil layers. The variation of soil water storage in the unsaturated zone is traced from the soil water balance on a daily basis. DAWAST model consists of 5 parameters for water balance and 3 parameters for routing. A optimization technique of unconstrained nonlinear Simplex method was applied for the determination of the optimal parameters for water balance. Model verification was carried out to the 7 hydrologic watersheds with areas of 5.89-7,126km$^2$ and the results were generally satisfactory. The daily streamflow can be arbitrarily simulated with the input data of daily rainfall and pan evaporation by the DAWAST model at the station where the observed streamflow data of short periods are available to calibrate the model parameters.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제48권3호
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• pp.493-510
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• 2020

Purpose: As of July 31, there were 14,336 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea, including 301 deaths. Since the daily confirmed number of cases hit 909 on February 29, the spread of the disease had gradually decreased due to the active implementation of preventive control interventions, and the daily confirmed number had finally recorded a single digit on April 19. Since May, however, the disease has re-emerged and retaining after June. In order to eradicate the disease, it is necessary to suggest suitable forward preventive strategies by predicting future infectivity of the disease based on the cases so far. Therefore, in this study, we aim to evaluate the transmission potential of the disease in early phases by estimating basic reproduction number and assess the preventive control measures through effective reproduction number. Methods: We used publicly available cases and deaths data regarding COVID-19 in South Korea as of July 31. Using ensemble model integrated stochastic linear birth model and deterministic linear growth model, the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number were estimated. Results: Estimated basic reproduction number is 3.1 (95% CI: 3.0-3.2). Effective reproduction number was the highest with 7 on February 15, decreased as of April 20. Since then, the value is gradually increased to more than unity. Conclusion: Preventive policy such as wearing a mask and physical distancing campaigns in the early phase of the outbreak was fairly implemented. However, the infection potential increased due to weakening government policy on May 6. Our results suggest that it seems necessary to implement a stronger policy than the current level.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.385-395
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• 2002

하천에서의 수질변동을 예측하기 위해 FOEA(First-Order Error-Analysis)와 Monte Carlo 모의를 적용한 추계학적 모형을 개발하였다. 영향메트릭스(Influential matrix)를 이용한 민감도 분석을 실시하여 주요 반응계수를 결정하였고, BFGS(Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno) 최적화 기법을 사용하여 주요 반응계수 값을 산정하였다. 본 모형을 확정론적 수질해석과 동일한 실제 하도구간에 적용하여 추계학적 수질해석을 실시하였고, 그 결과는 확정론적 해석결과와 잘 일치하였다. 유량과 수질, 반응계수 등에 포함된 불확실도가 하류단의 불확실도에 끼치는 영향을 산정하기 위해 상류단과 지류의 유량 및 수질에 대한 불확실도, 그리고 반응계수의 불확실도에 대한 분석과정이 모형에 포함되었다. 모의수행 결과로부터 각 변수들이 가지고 있는 불확실도가 총 불확실도에 끼치는 영향에 대한 기여도를 산정 할 수 있었다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제67권2호
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• pp.248-254
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• 2018

In this paper, a Monte Carlo-based Recursive Least Square(MC-RLS) method is presented to directly identify the inverse model of the dynamical system. Although a RLS method has been used for the identification based on the deterministic data in the closed loop controlled form, it would be better for RLS to identify the model with random data. In addition, the inverse model obtained by inverting the identified forward model may not work properly. Therefore, MC-RLS can be used for the inverse model identification without proceeding a numerical inversion of an identified forward model. The performance of the proposed method is verified through experimental studies on a control moment gyroscope.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.27-40
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• 1991

Delay is an widely-used tool for evaluating the operation of signalized intersections. This paper presents two mathematical models: a model converting stop delay into approach delay : and a model estimating delay at isolated signalized intersection. To develop the delay-conversion model, actual stop delay and approach delay experienced by individual vehicles were measured and then their relationship was formulated using ma-thematical procedure. the formula expressing the approach-delay to stop-delay ratio was a monotonously decreasing function of effective red time. New delay model was developed based on the following criteria; the fitness to measured delay for undersaturated traffic condition and the convergence to the deterministic overflow delay for oversaturated traffic condition. Performance of this model was better than those of other existing models based on the comparison study.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제40권1호
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• pp.49-59
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• 2012

In computer simulation models the output from the computer code is often deterministic, i.e., running the code twice with the same values for the input variables would give the same output. It is discussed why the response surface method with polynomial approximation for the true response function is a good approximation to the computer experiments model. A sequential strategy to find the proper reduced quadratic polynomial model is illustrated with a case study in the military war game computer simulation model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.67-80
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• 2017

Over the last few decades, ensemble forecasts based on global climate models have become an important part of climate forecast due to the ability to reduce uncertainty in prediction. Moreover in ensemble forecast, assessing the prediction uncertainty is as important as estimating the optimal weights, and this is achieved through a probabilistic forecast which is based on the predictive distribution of future climate. The Bayesian model averaging has received much attention as a tool of probabilistic forecasting due to its simplicity and superior prediction. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian model averaging method for probabilistic ensemble forecasting. The proposed method combines a deterministic ensemble forecast based on a multivariate regression approach with Bayesian model averaging. We demonstrate that the proposed method is better in prediction than the standard Bayesian model averaging approach by analyzing monthly average precipitations and temperatures for ten cities in Korea.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제29권3_4호
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• pp.781-802
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• 2011

Of concern in the paper is a Holling-Tanner predator-prey model with modified version of the Leslie-Gower functional response. Dynamical behaviours such as stability, permanence and Hopf bifurcation have been carried out deterministically. Using the normal form theory and center manifold theorem, the explicit formulae determining the stability and direction of Hopf bifurcation have been derived. The deterministic model is extended to a stochastic one by perturbing the growth equation of prey and predator by white and colored noises and finally the mean square stability of the stochastic model systems is investigated analytically. An extensive quantitative analysis has been performed based on numerical computation so as to validate the applicability of the proposed mathematical model.