• Title/Summary/Keyword: cost prediction

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A Study on Predicting Construction Cost of Educational Building Project at early stage Using Support Vector Machine Technique (서포트벡터머신을 이용한 교육시설 초기 공사비 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Jae-Min;Kim, Gwang-Hee
    • The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.46-54
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    • 2012
  • The accuracy of cost estimation at an early stage in school building project is one of the critical factors for successful completion. So various of techniques are developed to predict the construction cost accurately and expeditely. Among the techniques, Support Vector Machine(SVM) has an excellent ability for generalization performance. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to construct the prediction model for construction cost of educational building project using support vector machine technique. And to verify the accuracy of prediction model for construction cost. The performance data used in this study are 217 school building project cost which have been completed from 2004 to 2007 in Gyeonggi-Do, Korea. The result shows that average error rate was 7.48% for SVM prediction model. So using SVM model on predicting construction cost of educational building project will be a considerably effective way at the early project stage.

The Algorithm of Angular Mode Selection for High Performance HEVC Intra Prediction (고성능 HEVC 화면내 예측을 위한 Angular 모드 선택 알고리즘)

  • Park, Seungyong;Ryoo, Kwangki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2016.10a
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    • pp.969-972
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we propose an algorithm of angular mode selection for high-performance HEVC intra prediction. HEVC intra prediction is used to remove the spatial redundancy. Intra prediction has a total of 35 modes and block size of $64{\times}64$ to $4{\times}4$. Intra prediction has a high amount of calculation and operational time due to performing all 35 modes for each block size for the best cost. The angular mode algorithm proposed has a simple difference between pixels of the original image and the selected angular mode. A decision is made to select one angular mode plus planar mode and DC mode to perform the intra prediction and determine the mode with the best cost. In effect, only three modes are executed compared to the traditional 35 modes. Performance evaluation index used are BD-PSNR and BD-Bitrate. For the proposed algorithm, BD-PSNR results averagely increased by 0.035 and BD-Bitrate decreased by 0.623 relative to the HM-16.9 intra prediction. In addition, the encoding time is decreased by about 6.905%.

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Prediction/Investment Cost Analysis for korea High-Speed Railway System (한국형 고속전철 시스템의 추정/투입비용 분석)

  • Lee, Tae-Hyeong;Park, Chun-Su
    • 시스템엔지니어링워크숍
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    • s.1
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    • pp.60-64
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    • 2003
  • In this study, we have analyzed the cost of korea high-speed railway system. The predicted cost in planning phase and adjustment data to 5th year are collected. Then, predicted cost is compared with adjustment in year/item/system base. We make a project history table for criteria to review project history and research & development activity. We have developed CBS(cost breakdown structure) and allocated adjustment data to them. It is shown that cost prediction related to research & development activity in planning phase is relatively correct.

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Cost prediction model of Public Multi-housing Projects in Schematic Design Phase (공공아파트 계획설계단계에서의 공사비 예측모델)

  • Kwon, Ho-Suk;Moon, Hyun-Seok;Lee, Sung-Kyun;Hong, Tae-Hoon;Koo, Kyo-Jin;Hyun, Chang-Taek
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2008
  • Public institutions recognize the importance of cost management from the planning stage but they do not have an organized construction cost estimation and management system. Thus, at the stage of planning a new public construction project and estimating the cost, those in charge of budgeting estimate construction cost based on existing data and experiences, compare construction cost estimated after the basic design stage and the execution design stage with budgets, and then decide whether to continue the project or change the design according to the budgets. Therefore, we would develop the cost prediction model through regression analysis that can predict construction cost in Schematic Design Phase of the Public Multi-Family housing. Accordingly, if public institutions have a construction cost prediction model and management system that can estimate the optimum construction cost, they can make and execute budgets in a more efficient way than they do at present.

Ratio Estimation of Indirect Cost Sector about Defense Companies by Statistic Technique (통계 기법에 의한 방산업체의 간접원가부문 비율 추정)

  • Lim, Hyeoncheol;Kim, Suhwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.246-252
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    • 2017
  • In the defense acquisition, a company's goal is to maximize profits, and the government's goal is to allocate budgets efficiently. Each year, the government estimates the ratio of indirect cost sector to defense companies, and estimates the ratio to be applied when calculating cost of the defense articles next year. The defense industry environment is changing rapidly, due to the increasing trend of defense acquisition budgets, the advancement of weapon systems, the effects of the 4th industrial revolution, and so on. As a result, the cost structure of defense companies is being diversifying. The purpose of this study is to find an alternative that can enhance the rationality of the current methodology for estimating the ratio of indirect cost sector of defense companies. To do this, we conducted data analysis using the R language on the cost data of defense companies over the past six years in the Defense Integrated Cost System. First, cluster analysis was conducted on the cost characteristics of defense companies. Then, we conducted a regression analysis of the relationship between direct and indirect costs for each cluster to see how much it reflects the cost structure of defense companies in direct labor cost-based indirect cost rate estimates. Lastly a new ratio prediction model based on regularized regression analysis was developed, applied to each cluster, and analyzed to compare performance with existing prediction models. According to the results of the study, it is necessary to estimate the indirect cost ratio based on the cost character group of defense companies, and the direct labor cost based indirect cost ratio estimation partially reflects the cost structure of defense companies. In addition, the current indirect cost ratio prediction method has a larger error than the new model.

A Study on the Prediction of the Construction Cost in Planning Stage of Local Housing Union Project (지역주택조합사업 기획단계의 공사비 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jin-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.653-659
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    • 2018
  • The accurate prediction of construction cost is a key factor in a project's success. However, it is hard to predict the construction costs in the planning stages rapidly and precisely when drawings, specifications, construction cost calculation statements are incomplete, among other factors. Accurate construction-cost prediction in the planning stage of a project is also important for project feasibility studies and successful completion. Therefore, various techniques have been applied to accurately predict construction costs at an early stage when project information is limited. There are many factors that affect the construction cost prediction. This paper presents a construction-cost prediction method as multiple regression model with seven construction factors as independent variables. The method was used to predict the construction cost of a local housing union project, and the error rate was 4.87%. It is not possible to compare the cost of the project at the planning stage of the local housing union project, but it has high prediction accuracy compared to the unit price of an existing unit area. It is likely to be applied in construction-cost calculation work and to contribute to the establishment of the budget for the local housing union project.

A Study on the Process for Estimating the Construction Cost of an Apartment House in the Planning/Planning Stage (기획/계획단계에서 공동주택 건축공사비 산정을 위한 프로세스에 관한 고찰)

  • Jo, Seong-Min;Cho, Sung-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2021.11a
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    • pp.228-229
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    • 2021
  • Planning/planning stage Construction cost prediction is very important. In particular, flexible thinking is required to predict the construction cost by reflecting rapid market changes and current conditions. Therefore, in this study, we tried to consider the process for calculating the construction cost of an apartment house in a more accurate planning/planning stage. First, cases were collected based on the classification system by construction type. Second, the construction cost was predicted using the case-based reasoning technique. Third, the composition ratio by construction type of the most similar case was applied to the derived construction cost. Finally, the construction cost was predicted based on practical corrections reflecting the market and field conditions.

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Quantitative estimation system development for project similarity (주요 건물군의 유사도 정량화 측정 시스템)

  • Lee, Eun-Ji;Choi, Byoung-Il;Ko, Yong-Ho;Han, Seung-woo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2014.05a
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    • pp.162-163
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    • 2014
  • Operation and maintenance stage consists the largest portion of project life cycle cost. Appropriate management and analysis of such stages have massive effect on the total project cost. The effective prediction of optimized repair period is one of main factors in ㅌ management. However, it has been analyzed that the prediction of appropriate repair period revealed limitations in reliability. Therefore, this study suggests a methodology of repair period prediction by dividing finished projects into similar groups with same properties to be compared with the target project using quantitative variables.

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Preliminary Study on the Construction of Database for BIM-based preliminary estimate. (BIM 기반 개산견적을 위한 DB구축 기초연구)

  • Jun, Kl-Hyun;Yun, Seok-Heon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2012.11a
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    • pp.291-292
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    • 2012
  • Progress in the construction project, the estimated cost of the measure is very important. Use preliminary estimate cost data for the prediction of construction cost. But, preliminary estimate cost data a clear calculation, there is no way. it is rely on the historical data and the past construction data. As a result, a significant difference in the actual construction cost and the predicted cost of the problem occurs. In this study, taking advantage of BIM Cost Prediction for efficient and rapid preliminary estimate BIM for building database through the study preliminary estimate cost data.

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Cost Analysis Study : Development of HVAC&R System Cost Estimation and Prediction Methodology for Office Buildings (사무소 건물의 HVAC&R 시스템 공사비 분석방법 및 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Jinkyun;Shin, Seungho;Kim, Jonghurn
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.115-121
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    • 2014
  • HVAC&R system costs can often be one of the most expensive components, representing approximately 15% of the total construction cost for office buildings. Despite their significant importance, there is a lack of a consistent and homogeneous framework to approximate the estimate research. This research deals with the prediction methodology of HVAC&R system cost with the aim of establishing a common idea for the analysis of the construction cost estimate. Our approach deals with the concept of an HVAC&R set that is composed of subsystems. The matrix combination analysis is examined, and total 960 HVAC&R system cost estimation can be implemented to large scale office buildings.