• Title/Summary/Keyword: conditional quantile

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Forecasting volatility via conditional autoregressive value at risk model based on support vector quantile regression

  • Shim, Joo-Yong;Hwang, Chang-Ha
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.589-596
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    • 2011
  • The conditional autoregressive value at risk (CAViaR) model is useful for risk management, which does not require the assumption that the conditional distribution does not vary over time but the volatility does. But it does not provide volatility forecasts, which are needed for several important applications such as option pricing and portfolio management. For a variety of probability distributions, it is known that there is a constant relationship between the standard deviation and the distance between symmetric quantiles in the tails of the distribution. This inspires us to use a support vector quantile regression (SVQR) for volatility forecasts with the distance between CAViaR forecasts of symmetric quantiles. Simulated example and real example are provided to indicate the usefulness of proposed forecasting method for volatility.

M-quantile regression using kernel machine technique

  • Hwang, Chang-Ha
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.973-981
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    • 2010
  • Quantile regression investigates the quantiles of the conditional distribution of a response variable given a set of covariates. M-quantile regression extends this idea by a "quantile-like" generalization of regression based on influence functions. In this paper we propose a new method of estimating M-quantile regression functions, which uses kernel machine technique. Simulation studies are presented that show the finite sample properties of the proposed M-quantile regression.

The Effects of Entrepreneurship and Corporate Social Responsibility on Firm Performance (기업가 정신 및 기업의 사회적 책임과 기업의 경영성과 관계)

  • Seo, Joohwan
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.426-433
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    • 2016
  • This study investigates the effects of entrepreneurship and corporate social responsibility (CSR) on firm performance. I use the conditional quantile regression as well as the ordinary least square (OLS) with 300 samples, only medium and small size companies. I found firstly, entrepreneurship affected overall positively firm performance in the all quantile levels. Secondly, CSR also have a positive impact on firm performance in the overall all quantile levels. By these results, I recommend that entrepreneurship and CSR should a positive impact on the firm performance for the small and medium business companies.

A comparison study of multiple linear quantile regression using non-crossing constraints (비교차 제약식을 이용한 다중 선형 분위수 회귀모형에 관한 비교연구)

  • Bang, Sungwan;Shin, Seung Jun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.773-786
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    • 2016
  • Multiple quantile regression that simultaneously estimate several conditional quantiles of response given covariates can provide a comprehensive information about the relationship between the response and covariates. Some quantile estimates can cross if conditional quantiles are separately estimated; however, this violates the definition of the quantile. To tackle this issue, multiple quantile regression with non-crossing constraints have been developed. In this paper, we carry out a comparison study on several popular methods for non-crossing multiple linear quantile regression to provide practical guidance on its application.

Stepwise Estimation for Multiple Non-Crossing Quantile Regression using Kernel Constraints (커널 제약식을 이용한 다중 비교차 분위수 함수의 순차적 추정법)

  • Bang, Sungwan;Jhun, Myoungshic;Cho, HyungJun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.915-922
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    • 2013
  • Quantile regression can estimate multiple conditional quantile functions of the response, and as a result, it provide comprehensive information of the relationship between the response and the predictors. However, when estimating several conditional quantile functions separately, two or more estimated quantile functions may cross or overlap and consequently violate the basic properties of quantiles. In this paper, we propose a new stepwise method to estimate multiple non-crossing quantile functions using constraints on the kernel coefficients. A simulation study are presented to demonstrate satisfactory performance of the proposed method.

A Nonparametric Procedure for Bioassay by using Conditional Quantile Processes

  • Kim, Ho
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.179-186
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    • 1996
  • Bioequivanence models arise typically in bioassays when new preparations are compared against standard ones by means of responses on some biological organisms. Relative potency measures provide nice interpretations for such bioequivalence and their estimation constitutes the prime interest of such studies. A conditional quantile process based on the k-nearest neighbor method is proposed for this purpose. An alternative procedure based on Kolmogrov-Smirnov type estimator has also been considered along with. ARIC ultrasound data are analyzed as examples.

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Value at Risk Forecasting Based on Quantile Regression for GARCH Models

  • Lee, Sang-Yeol;Noh, Jung-Sik
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.669-681
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    • 2010
  • Value-at-Risk(VaR) is an important part of risk management in the financial industry. This paper present a VaR forecasting for financial time series based on the quantile regression for GARCH models recently developed by Lee and Noh (2009). The proposed VaR forecasting features the direct conditional quantile estimation for GARCH models that is well connected with the model parameters. Empirical performance is measured by several backtesting procedures, and is reported in comparison with existing methods using sample quantiles.

Intergenerational economic mobility in Korea using a quantile regression analysis (한국의 세대 간 경제적 이동성 - 분위수회귀분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Richey, Jeremiah;Jeong, Kiho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.715-725
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    • 2014
  • This study uses a quantile regression analysis to investigate intergenerational economic mobility in Korea. The analysis is based on data from the 1st through 11th waves of the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) conducted from 1998-2008. The household nature of the data allows us to link parents' incomes to children's incomes at different points in time. Using a quantile regression analysis instead of mean one reveals that the effect of fathers' earnings are different across the conditional distribution of sons' earnings, particularly being larger on the upper quantile than on the lower quantile. After controlling effect of sons' college education by including a dummy variable for the degree, however, the pattern among quantile effects for fathers' earnings is no longer clear. Instead a new pattern emerges that education has a much larger effect on the upper quantiles than on the lower ones. Using nonparametric estimates of conditional density curves based on the quantile regression results, we derive some interesting features in graphical forms, which are not obvious in numerical analysis.

Nonparametric estimation of conditional quantile with censored data (조건부 분위수의 중도절단을 고려한 비모수적 추정)

  • Kim, Eun-Young;Choi, Hyemi
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.211-222
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    • 2013
  • We consider the problem of nonparametrically estimating the conditional quantile function from censored data and propose new estimators here. They are based on local logistic regression technique of Lee et al. (2006) and "double-kernel" technique of Yu and Jones (1998) respectively, which are modified versions under random censoring. We compare those with two existing estimators based on a local linear fits using the check function approach. The comparison is done by a simulation study.

Wage Determinants Analysis by Quantile Regression Tree

  • Chang, Young-Jae
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.293-301
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    • 2012
  • Quantile regression proposed by Koenker and Bassett (1978) is a statistical technique that estimates conditional quantiles. The advantage of using quantile regression is the robustness in response to large outliers compared to ordinary least squares(OLS) regression. A regression tree approach has been applied to OLS problems to fit flexible models. Loh (2002) proposed the GUIDE algorithm that has a negligible selection bias and relatively low computational cost. Quantile regression can be regarded as an analogue of OLS, therefore it can also be applied to GUIDE regression tree method. Chaudhuri and Loh (2002) proposed a nonparametric quantile regression method that blends key features of piecewise polynomial quantile regression and tree-structured regression based on adaptive recursive partitioning. Lee and Lee (2006) investigated wage determinants in the Korean labor market using the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS). Following Lee and Lee, we fit three kinds of quantile regression tree models to KLIPS data with respect to the quantiles, 0.05, 0.2, 0.5, 0.8, and 0.95. Among the three models, multiple linear piecewise quantile regression model forms the shortest tree structure, while the piecewise constant quantile regression model has a deeper tree structure with more terminal nodes in general. Age, gender, marriage status, and education seem to be the determinants of the wage level throughout the quantiles; in addition, education experience appears as the important determinant of the wage level in the highly paid group.