• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.887-894
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• 1998

Let T=( $T_1$,…, $T_{k}$;k$\geq$2) be a minimal sufficient and complete statistic for a k-parameter exponential model. Consider a partition of T into ( $T_1$, $T_2$), where $T_1$=( $T_1$,…, $T_{r}$ and $T_2$=( $T_{r+1}$,…, $T_{k}$1$\leq$r$\leq$k-1/). This article represents a way to obtain higher moments such as skewness and kurtosis for the distribution T and the conditional distribution of $T_1$, given $T_2$= $t_2$. These results are illustrated by some examples.s.les.s.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.107-128
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• 2004

Bivariate Laplace distributions for which both marginal distributions and Laplace are discussed. Three kinds of bivariate Laplace distributions which are extended bivariate exponential distributions of Gumbel (1960) are introduced in this paper. These symmetrical distributions are compared with asymmetrical distributions of Kotz et al. (2000). Their probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions are derived. Conditional skewnesses and kurtoses are also defined. Their correlation coefficients are calculated and compared with others. We proposed bivariate random vector generating methods whose distributions are bivariate Laplace. With sample means and medians obtained from generated random vectors, variance and covariance matrices of means and medians are calculated and discussed with those of bivariate normal distribution.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.157-160
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• 1999

We show the cumulants of a minimal sufficient statistics in k parameter natural exponential family by parameter function and partial parameter function. We nd the cumulants have some merits of central moments and general cumulants both. The first three cumulants are the central moments themselves and the fourth cumulant has the form related with kurtosis.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.651-668
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• 2014

Wind tunnel tests are conducted to investigate the wind loads on vertical fixed-roof cylindrical tanks with a very low aspect ratio of 0.275, which is a typical ratio for practical tanks with a volume of $100,000m^3$. Both the flat-roof tank and the dome-roof tank are investigated in present study. The first four moments of the measured wind pressure, including the mean and normalized deviation pressure, kurtosis and skewness of the pressure signal, are obtained to study the feature of the wind loads. It is shown that the wind loads are closely related to the behavior of flow around the structure. For either tank, the mean wind pressures on the cylinder are positive on the windward area and negative on the sides and the wake area, and the mean wind pressures on the whole roof are negative. The roof configurations have no considerable influence on the mean pressure distributions of cylindrical wall in general. Highly non-Gaussian feature is found in either tank. Conditional sampling technique, envelope method, and the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) analysis are employed to investigate the characteristics of wind loads on the cylinder in more detail. It is shown that the patterns of wind pressure obtained from conditional sampling are similar to the mean pressure patterns.An instantaneous pressure coefficient can present a wide range from the maximum value to the minimum value. The quasi-steady assumption is not valid for structures considered in this paper according to the POD analysis.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.297-309
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• 2021

In this study, to capture the skewness and kurtosis detected in both conditional and unconditional return distributions of the stock markets of Kazakhstan and Russia, two versions of normal mixture GARCH models are employed. The data set consists of daily observations of the Kazakhstan and Russia stock prices, and world crude oil price, covering the period from 1 June 2006 through 1 March 2021. From the empirical results, incorporating the long memory effect on the returns not only provides better descriptions of dynamic behaviors of the stock market prices but also plays a significant role in improving a better understanding of the return dynamics. In addition, normal mixture models for time-varying volatility provide a better fit to the conditional densities than the usual GARCH specifications and has an important advantage that the conditional higher moments are time-varying. This implies that the volatility skews implied by normal mixture models are more likely to exhibit the features of risk and the direction of the information flow is regime-dependent. The findings of this study contain useful information for diverse purposes of cross-border stock market players such as asset allocation, portfolio management, risk management, and market regulations.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.53-60
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• 2007

Conditionally heteroscedastic time series models such as GARCH processes have frequently provided useful approximations to the real aspects of financial time series. It is not uncommon that financial time series exhibits near non-stationary, say, integrated phenomenon. For stationary GARCH processes, a shock to the current conditional variance will be exponentially converging to zero and thus asymptotically negligible for the future conditional variance. However, for the case of integrated process, the effect will remain for a long time, i.e., we have a persistent effect of a current shock on the future observations. We are here concerned with providing empirical evidences of persistent GARCH(1,1) for various fifteen domestic financial time series including KOSPI, KOSDAQ and won-dollar exchange rate. To this end, kurtosis and Integrated-GARCH(1,1) fits are reported for each data.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1065-1074
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• 2011

During several decades, many researchers in the field of finance have studied Value at Risk (VaR) to measure the market risk. VaR indicates the worst loss over a target horizon such that there is a low, pre-specified probability that the actual loss will be larger (Jorion, 2006, p.106). In this paper, we compare conditional copula method with two conventional VaR forecasting methods based on simple moving average and exponentially weighted moving average for measuring the risk of the portfolio, consisting of two domestic stock indices. Through real data analysis, we conclude that the conditional copula method can improve the accuracy of portfolio VaR forecasting in the presence of high kurtosis and strong correlation in the data.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.35 no.5_6
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• pp.477-493
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• 2017

The dual generalized order statistics is a unified model which contains the well known decreasingly ordered random variables like order statistics and lower record values. With this definition we give simple expressions for single and product moments of dual generalized order statistics from Dagum distribution. The results for order statistics and lower records are deduced from the relations derived and some computational works are also carried out. Further, a characterizing result of this distribution on using the conditional moment of the dual generalized order statistics is discussed. These recurrence relations enable computation of the means, variances and covariances of all order statistics for all sample sizes in a simple and efficient manner. By using these relations, we tabulate the means, variances, skewness and kurtosis of order statistics and record values of the Dagum distribution.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.421-433
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• 2017

The CTE (conditional tail expectation) is a useful risk management measure for a diversified investment portfolio that can be generally estimated by using a transformed univariate distribution. Hong et al. (2016) proposed a multivariate CTE based on multivariate quantile vectors, and explored its characteristics for multivariate normal distributions. Since most real financial data is not distributed symmetrically, it is problematic to apply the CTE to normal distributions. In order to obtain a multivariate CTE for various kinds of joint distributions, distribution fitting methods using copula functions are proposed in this work. Among the many copula functions, the Clayton, Frank, and Gumbel functions are considered, and the multivariate CTEs are obtained by using their generator functions and parameters. These CTEs are compared with CTEs obtained using other distribution functions. The characteristics of the multivariate CTEs are discussed, as are the properties of the distribution functions and their corresponding accuracy. Finally, conclusions are derived and presented with illustrative examples.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.1-14
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• 2014

This paper aims at measuring how new information is incorporated into volatility estimates. Various GARCH models are compared and estimated with daily BDI(Baltic Dry Index) data. While most researchers agree that volatility is predictable, they differ on how this volatility predictability should be modelled. This study, hence, introduces the asymmetric or leverage volatility models, in which good news and bad news have different predictability for future. We provide the systematic comparison of volatility models focusing on the asymmetric effect of news on volatility. Specifically, three diagnostic tests are provided: the sign bias test, the negative size bias test, and the positive size bias test. From the Ljung-Box test statistic for twelfth-order serial correlation for the level we do not find any significant serial correlation in the unpredictable BDI. The coefficients of skewness and kurtosis both indicate that the unpredictable BDI has a distribution which is skewed to the left and significantly flat tailed. Furthermore, the Ljung-Box test statistic for twelfth-order serial correlations in the squares strongly suggests the presence of time-varying volatility. The sign bias test, the negative size bias test, and the positive size bias test strongly indicate that large positive(negative) BDI shocks cause more volatility than small ones. This paper, also, shows that three leverage models have problems in capturing the correct impact of news on volatility and that negative shocks do not cause higher volatility than positive shocks. Specifically, the GARCH model successfully reveals the shape of the news impact curve and is a useful approach to modeling conditional heteroscedasticity of daily BDI.