• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.887-894
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• 1998

Let T=( $T_1$,…, $T_{k}$;k$\geq$2) be a minimal sufficient and complete statistic for a k-parameter exponential model. Consider a partition of T into ( $T_1$, $T_2$), where $T_1$=( $T_1$,…, $T_{r}$ and $T_2$=( $T_{r+1}$,…, $T_{k}$1$\leq$r$\leq$k-1/). This article represents a way to obtain higher moments such as skewness and kurtosis for the distribution T and the conditional distribution of $T_1$, given $T_2$= $t_2$. These results are illustrated by some examples.s.les.s.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.107-128
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• 2004

Bivariate Laplace distributions for which both marginal distributions and Laplace are discussed. Three kinds of bivariate Laplace distributions which are extended bivariate exponential distributions of Gumbel (1960) are introduced in this paper. These symmetrical distributions are compared with asymmetrical distributions of Kotz et al. (2000). Their probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions are derived. Conditional skewnesses and kurtoses are also defined. Their correlation coefficients are calculated and compared with others. We proposed bivariate random vector generating methods whose distributions are bivariate Laplace. With sample means and medians obtained from generated random vectors, variance and covariance matrices of means and medians are calculated and discussed with those of bivariate normal distribution.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.157-160
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• 1999

We show the cumulants of a minimal sufficient statistics in k parameter natural exponential family by parameter function and partial parameter function. We nd the cumulants have some merits of central moments and general cumulants both. The first three cumulants are the central moments themselves and the fourth cumulant has the form related with kurtosis.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.651-668
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• 2014

Wind tunnel tests are conducted to investigate the wind loads on vertical fixed-roof cylindrical tanks with a very low aspect ratio of 0.275, which is a typical ratio for practical tanks with a volume of $100,000m^3$. Both the flat-roof tank and the dome-roof tank are investigated in present study. The first four moments of the measured wind pressure, including the mean and normalized deviation pressure, kurtosis and skewness of the pressure signal, are obtained to study the feature of the wind loads. It is shown that the wind loads are closely related to the behavior of flow around the structure. For either tank, the mean wind pressures on the cylinder are positive on the windward area and negative on the sides and the wake area, and the mean wind pressures on the whole roof are negative. The roof configurations have no considerable influence on the mean pressure distributions of cylindrical wall in general. Highly non-Gaussian feature is found in either tank. Conditional sampling technique, envelope method, and the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) analysis are employed to investigate the characteristics of wind loads on the cylinder in more detail. It is shown that the patterns of wind pressure obtained from conditional sampling are similar to the mean pressure patterns.An instantaneous pressure coefficient can present a wide range from the maximum value to the minimum value. The quasi-steady assumption is not valid for structures considered in this paper according to the POD analysis.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권8호
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• pp.297-309
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• 2021

In this study, to capture the skewness and kurtosis detected in both conditional and unconditional return distributions of the stock markets of Kazakhstan and Russia, two versions of normal mixture GARCH models are employed. The data set consists of daily observations of the Kazakhstan and Russia stock prices, and world crude oil price, covering the period from 1 June 2006 through 1 March 2021. From the empirical results, incorporating the long memory effect on the returns not only provides better descriptions of dynamic behaviors of the stock market prices but also plays a significant role in improving a better understanding of the return dynamics. In addition, normal mixture models for time-varying volatility provide a better fit to the conditional densities than the usual GARCH specifications and has an important advantage that the conditional higher moments are time-varying. This implies that the volatility skews implied by normal mixture models are more likely to exhibit the features of risk and the direction of the information flow is regime-dependent. The findings of this study contain useful information for diverse purposes of cross-border stock market players such as asset allocation, portfolio management, risk management, and market regulations.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.53-60
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• 2007

시계열 자료 분석에서 ARCH류와 같은 조건부 이분산성 모형을 가정하고 분석하는 모형들이 많이 쓰이고 있다. 실제 우리나라 금융 시계열 자료들을 분석해 보면 비정상성을 나타내는 경우가 드물지 않게 나타난다. 즉, 단위근 형태의 비정상 패턴(integrated phenomenon)에 가까운 경우가 자주 나타난다. 본 논문에서는 다양한 국내 금융시계열 15개에(주가지수, 선물지수, 환율, 이자율 등) GARCH(1,1) 모형을 적합시켜 분산의 지속성을 확인하고, 각 데이터에 첨도(Kurtosis)와 적합된 IGARCH(1,1) 모형을 제시하고자 한다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.1065-1074
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• 2011

1990년대 중반 이후 금융 분야에서 가장 많은 관심을 받는 연구 주제 중의 하나는 대표적인 위험측정 방법인 VaR (Value at risk)이다. VaR는 주어진 신뢰수준에서 정상적인 시장조건을 가정할 때 선택한 목표기간 동안 발생할 수 있는 포트폴리오의 최대손실액으로 정의된다. 본 논문에서는 국내 주가지수 자료를 이용한 포트폴리오에 다변량 정규분포를 이용하는 VaR 예측 방법인 단순이동평균법과 지수가중이동평균법을 고려하여 VaR를 예측한 결과와 t 분포 및 조건부 코퓰라 (Copula) 함수를 이용하여 VaR를 예측한 결과를 비교 평가하였다. 자료 분석 결과에 의하면 포트폴리오 구성 종목 간에 종속성구조와 비정규성이 존재하는 경우에 t 분포와 조건부 코퓰라 방식을 이용하여 VaR 추정의 정확도를 높일 수 있다는 결론을 얻을 수 있었다.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제35권5_6호
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• pp.477-493
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• 2017

The dual generalized order statistics is a unified model which contains the well known decreasingly ordered random variables like order statistics and lower record values. With this definition we give simple expressions for single and product moments of dual generalized order statistics from Dagum distribution. The results for order statistics and lower records are deduced from the relations derived and some computational works are also carried out. Further, a characterizing result of this distribution on using the conditional moment of the dual generalized order statistics is discussed. These recurrence relations enable computation of the means, variances and covariances of all order statistics for all sample sizes in a simple and efficient manner. By using these relations, we tabulate the means, variances, skewness and kurtosis of order statistics and record values of the Dagum distribution.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.421-433
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• 2017

The CTE (conditional tail expectation) is a useful risk management measure for a diversified investment portfolio that can be generally estimated by using a transformed univariate distribution. Hong et al. (2016) proposed a multivariate CTE based on multivariate quantile vectors, and explored its characteristics for multivariate normal distributions. Since most real financial data is not distributed symmetrically, it is problematic to apply the CTE to normal distributions. In order to obtain a multivariate CTE for various kinds of joint distributions, distribution fitting methods using copula functions are proposed in this work. Among the many copula functions, the Clayton, Frank, and Gumbel functions are considered, and the multivariate CTEs are obtained by using their generator functions and parameters. These CTEs are compared with CTEs obtained using other distribution functions. The characteristics of the multivariate CTEs are discussed, as are the properties of the distribution functions and their corresponding accuracy. Finally, conclusions are derived and presented with illustrative examples.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.1-14
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• 2014

BDI건화물운임지수의 변동성은 환율과 주가의 변동성을 크게 초과할 정도로 대단히 클 뿐만 아니라 변동성이 점차 커지고 있어서 운임을 예측하는데 많은 어려움을 겪고 있다. 이에 본고는 이러한 운임지수의 변동성을 정확히 포착할 수 있는 모형을 찾는데 목적을 둔다. 이를 위해 변동성 분석에 흔히 사용되는 대칭형 변동성 모형인 GARCH 모형과 비대칭 변동성 모형인 AGARCH모형, GJR모형, EGARCH모형을 도입한다. 그것은 나쁜 뉴스가 좋은 뉴스보다 더 큰 변동성을 야기할 가능성이 높기 때문이다. 먼저 운임의 예측불가능요소를 운임의 요일별 특성을 제거한 후 자기회귀를 하여 구한 후 GARCH 분석을 적용하는데 적합한 성격을 갖는가를 조사한다. 비대칭모형의 AGARCH모형에서는 비대칭을 나타내는 계수가 유의하나 부호가 모형의 예상과 달라 나쁜 뉴스가 좋은 뉴스보다 더 큰 변동성을 야기하지 않으며, EGARCH모형의 비대칭계수도 양의 부호로 모형의 예상과 반대일 뿐만 아니라 유의하지 않아 나쁜 뉴스가 좋은 뉴스보다 더 큰 변동성을 야기하지 않는다는 것, 그리고 GJR모형에서도 해당 계수가 음으로 모형과 반대로 유의하지 않아 음의 충격이 양의 충격보다 더 큰 변동성을 유발하지 않음을 보인다. 이에 따라 BDI건화물운임지수의 변동성은 GARCH모형을 이용하는 것이 합리적이라는 점을 보인다.