• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.263-271
• /
• 1987

The cyclical trend and seasonal variations of chestnut prices have been analyzed to find out the chestnut price fluctuation in Korea during 1966-1985. The optimum prices, production, and plantation area for the next twenty five years (1986-2010) have been forcasted by the derived equation models. The results of study can be summarized as follows: 1. The chestnut prices were increased by 14.67 percent per annum during 1966-1972, an d decreased by 9.24 percent during 1973-1985, due to the excessive production of chestnut. 2. The chestnut prices showed the lowest price during the harvesting season, especially in October (89.1), and highest in July (109.1). Seasonal fluctuation of chestnut prices were 0.0837 (C.V value) during 1966-1975, and 0.0706 during 1976-1985. Such a seasonal fluctuation of chestnut prices tends to be even with the passage of time. 3. The equation model of predicted chestnut prices was derived as follows : PR=117788.088 - 7.60 TC/Pop + 6.585 GNP/Pop The chestnut prices will be the lowest in 1988, but increased rapidly thereafter. 4. The equation model of optimum chestnut production was derived as follows : $${\ell}n\;PD/Pop=-8.5147-0.8267{\ell}n\;PR+3.3063{\ell}n\;GNP/Pop$$ To maintain optimum chestnut prices according to this model, chestnut production should be 133,000 ton for 1988, and 1,899,000 ton for 2010. 5. Optimum chestnut plantation area will be 4,000 ha in 1988, and thereafter total plantation area will be up to 57,400 ha in 2010.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.73 no.1
• /
• pp.70-75
• /
• 1986

The secular trend and seasonal variation of chestnut prices have been analyzed, and the production and price for the next two decades (1985-2004) have been forecasted by the derived equation model. The results of the study can be summarized as follows; 1) The chestnut prices went up at the rate of 10.95% per annum during 1965-1972, but, due to excessive supply of chestnuts, went down at the rate of 7.25% during 1973-1984. 2) In a year, the prices were lowest at the harvesting season, especially on October, and highest on July. Such a seasonal fluctuations of chestnut prices tend to be even with the passage of time, but the range of fluctuation is still wide. 3) It was forecasted under certain premises that the annual chestnut production will be increased by 99,000 tons in 1992, but the amount will fall rapidly to about 23,000 tons in 2004. The prices will be similar to the present level or have slightly upward Tendency until 1992, but this will be rapidly raised thereafter.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.29-34
• /
• 1993

This study was carried out to estimate price and domestic consumption functions of chestnut using time series data for the period 1970~1989. Using a regression analysis method, price and domestic consumption functions of chestnut in Korea are estimated. The result of this study reveals that the optimum function of price for chestnut is PR= -249.33965 + 163532.56817 EX/POP-4.10177 PD+4.02877 DC+6056.98339 GDP/POP($R^2$=0.88207), and that optimum function of domestic consumption for chestnut is ln DC=14.97145+1.48279 ln PD/POP - 0.32853 ln GDP - 0.02337 ln PR - 0.12117 ln EX($R^2$=0.98689). On the ground that instability of prices make the income of producer and family finances of consumer unstable, the object of price-policy should be to stabilize price of chestnut in Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.97 no.4
• /
• pp.398-407
• /
• 2008

This study is to give management state information about changes of income and net profit due to the fluctuations of chestnut prices to someone who will manage a chestnut orchard or has been managing a chestnut orchard in the market opening time. This study, hence, evaluated 133 households who manage a chestnut orchard at Jin-ju, San-cheoung in Gyeong-nam, Gu-rae in Jeon-nam, Gong-ju, Bu-yeo, and Cheoung-yang in Chung-nam. This study analyzed three scenarios by chestnut prices and by tree ages to provide informations for working expenses, production cost, income and net income to cultivators. In case of chestnut of one thousand won, the income of chestnut trees generated from nine ages and the net income is obtained from ten ages and turned into deficit from twenty-eight ages. In case of chestnut of one thousand and five hundred won, the income of chestnut trees generated from seven ages and the net income is obtained from nine ages. In case of chestnut of two thousand won, the income of chestnut trees generated from six ages and the net income is obtained seven nine ages. We calculated out labor costs and material cost and figured out management cost by tree ages. Namely two man and twenty woman are employed in harvesting 3,000 kg by hectare from ten till eighteen ages maximum harvesting seasons. Material cost is fertilizer cost, agricultural chemicals cost and seeding cost.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.96 no.6
• /
• pp.661-666
• /
• 2007

This study is to give investment information to someone who will manage a chestnut orchard or has been managing a chestnut orchard by means of profit by producers' chestnut price and a term of investment retrieval because of fluctuations in chestnut prices in the opening time by FTA. This study, hence, evaluated 133 families who manage a chestnut orchard at Jin-ju, San-cheoung in Gyeong-nam, Gu-rae in Jeon-nam, Gong-ju, Bu-yeo, Cheoung-yang in Chung-nam. This study used IRR, B/C Ration, NPV and the break-even point sales methods. As the result of this study, there are investment value at much than 1,140 won/kg including wages themselves at 4% interest, however, there are not investment value at less than 1,140 won/kg in the same economic condition. Furthermore, an investor could retrieve the investment at sixteen year and the break-even point sales is 32,963,000 won/ha. If 3,000 won/kg, an investor could retrieve the investment at nine year and the break-even point sales is 15,176,000 won.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.95 no.4
• /
• pp.468-475
• /
• 2006

This study examined the economic effects of low tree-form culture, Cost-Benefit analysis was done based on additional costs and benefits from investment in low tree-form culture. In addition, this study analysed the sensitivity of profitability due to the changes in chestnut prices and wages. Investment in low tree-form culture was analysed to be profitable in Chungju, Gongju and Buyeo areas but in Jinju area. Sensitivity analysis of changes in prices and wages also showed that investment in low tree-form culture was economically feasible in Chungju, Gongju and Buyeo areas except for Jinju area.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.90 no.3
• /
• pp.373-379
• /
• 2001

The objectives of this study were to assess implementation on tariff quotas and tariff cuts committed in the WTO as result of Uruguay Round(UR) negotiations and to examine impacts of reductions in agricultural protection agreed in the UR on major non-timber forest products markets. The implementation of WTO Agreement on Agriculture was analysed based on the relevant data and statistics. The impacts of implementation on tariff cuts and tariff quotas on non-timber forest products markets were estimated by using supply and demand elasticities from previous studies and data on production, consumption and trade after UR. The quantities of Chestnut, Pine nut and Jujube imported by the system of tariff quota did not exceed the committed quotas over the five years from 1995 to 1999. The current level of applied rates on imports of non-timber products is much lower than that of bound rates, which will be maintained until the year 2004. It is estimated that increase in imports after UR reduced prices and that reduction in prices led to decrease in expenditure and to increase in consumer surplus. It is estimated, however, that production level significantly decreased due to rise in imports and that the negative effects on production exceeded positive effects on consumption. Exports of most non-timber forest products decreased after UR even though non-timber forest products could gain access to the export markets at the lower tariffs as a result of UR.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.17 no.5
• /
• pp.574-581
• /
• 2016

Exports of Korean non-timber forest products to the Japanese market decreased 46.3% from 17.54 million dollars in 2010 to 9.42 million dollars in 2014. This research aims to find the appropriate strategies for exporting Korean non-timber products, such as chestnut, shitake, persimmon, and wild ginseng. We applied conjoint analysis to investigate the preferences of Japanese homemakers for Korean non-timber products. The results are as follows: (1) There is a clear distinction in the preference for the attributes and levels of products; (2).Korean products are preferred to Chinese products, but have lower competitiveness than Japanese products; (3) Japanese homemakers responded sensitively, not to the forest product prices, but to changes in their specific attributes. These results can be used to promote the export of Korean non-timber products to the Japanese market.