• Title/Summary/Keyword: change-point model

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Long-term Prognostic Value of Dipyridamole Stress Myocardial SPECT (디피리다몰 부하 심근관류 SPECT의 장기예후 예측능)

  • Lee, Dong-Soo;Cheon, Gi-Jeong;Jang, Myung-Jin;Kang, Won-Jun;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myoung-Mook;Lee, Myung-Chul;Kang, Wee-Chang;Lee, Young-Jo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.39-54
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    • 2000
  • Purpose: Dipyridamole stress myocardial perfusion SPECT could predict prognosis, however, long-term follow-up showed change of hazard ratio in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. We investigated how long normal SPECT could predict the benign prognosis on the long-term follow-up. Materials and Methods: We followed up 1169 patients and divided these patients into groups in whom coronary angiography were performed and were not. Total cardiac event rate and hard event rate were predicted using clinical, angiographic and SPECT findings. Predictive values of normal and abnormal SPECT were examined using survival analysis with Mantel-Haenszel method, multivariate Cox proportional hazard model analysis and newly developed statistical method to test time-invariance of hazard rate and changing point of this rate. Results: Reversible perfusion decrease on myocardial perfusion SPECT predicted higher total cardiac event rate independently and further to angiographic findings. However, myocardial SPECT showed independent but not incremental prognostic values for hard event rate. Hazard ratio of normal perfusion SPECT was changed significantly (p<0.001) and the changing point of hazard rate was 4.4 years of follows up. However, the ratio of abnormal SPECT was not. Conclusion: Dipyridamole stress myocardial perfusion SPECT provided independent prognostic information in patients with known and suspected coronary artery disease. Normal perfusion SPECT predicted least event rate for 4.4 years.

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The Analysis of Cost Structure and Productivity in the Korea and Japan Railroad Industry (한국과 일본 철도산업의 비용구조와 생산성 분석)

  • Park, Jin-Gyeong;Kim, Seong-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.2 s.88
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    • pp.65-78
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    • 2006
  • This paper investigates the cost structure ot the Korea and Japan railroad industry with respect to density, scale and scope economies as well as productivity growth rate using a generalized trans)og multiproduct cost function model. The paper then assumes that the Korea and Japan railway companies pi·educe three outputs (incumbent railway passenger-kilometers. Shinkansen passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers of freight) using four input factors (labor, fuel, maintenance, rolling stock and capital). The specified cost function includes foul other independent variables: track lengths to reflect network effects, two dummies to reflect nation and ownership effects, and time trend as a proxy for technical change. The simultaneous equation system consisting of a cost function and three input share equations is estimated with the Zellner's iterative seemingly unrelated regression. The unbalanced panel data used in the paper, a total of 154 observations. are collected from the annual records of the Korea National Railroad (KNR) for the yews $1977{\sim}2003$, Japan National Railways (JNR) for the years $1977{\sim}1984$. seven Japan Railways (JR's) for the years $1987{\sim}2003$. The findings show that the Korean and Japanese railways exhibit product-specific and overall economies of density but product-specific diseconomies of scale with respect to incumbent railway passenger-kilometers, Shinkansen-kilometers and ton-kilometers. However, the railways experience mild overall economies of scale which result from economies of scope associated with the joint production of incumbent railway/Shinkansen and feight, freight/incumbent railway and Shinkansen except Shinkansen/incumbent railway and freight. In addition, the economies of density and scale in the KNR, JR east, JR central, and JR west companies at the point of the years $1990{\sim}2003$ average is generally analogous to the above results at the point of sample average. There also appear to be economies of ssope associated with the joint Production of the incumbent railway and Shinkansen in JR central but diseconomies of scope in JR East and JR West. The findings also indicate that the productivity growth rate of the privately-owned JR's is larger than that of the government-owned KNR.

Adsorption of Arsenic on Goethite (침철석(goethite)과 비소의 흡착반응)

  • Kim, Soon-Oh;Lee, Woo-Chun;Jeong, Hyeon-Su;Cho, Hyen-Goo
    • Journal of the Mineralogical Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.177-189
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    • 2009
  • Iron (oxyhydr)oxides commonly form as secondary minerals of high reactivity and large surface area resulting from alteration and weathering of primary minerals, and they are efficient sorbents for inorganic and organic contaminants. Accordingly, they have a great potential in industrial applications and are also of substantial interest in environmental sciences. Goethite (${\alpha}$-FeOOH) is one of the most ubiquitous and stable forms of iron (oxyhydr)oxides in terrestrial soils, sediments, and ore deposits, as well as a common weathering product in rocks of all types. This study focused on adsorption reaction as a main mechanism in scavenging arsenic using goethite. Goethite was synthesized in the laboratory to get high purity, and a variety of mineralogical and physicochemical features of goethite were measured and related to adsorption characteristics of arsenic. To compare differences in adsorption reactions between arsenic species, in addition, a variety of experiments to acquire adsorption isotherm, adsorption edges, and adsorption kinetics were accomplished. The point of zero charge (PZC) of the laboratory-synthesized goethite was measured to be 7.6, which value seems to be relatively higher, compared to those of other iron (oxyhydr)oxides. Its specific surface area appeared to be $29.2\;m^2/g$ and it is relatively smaller than those of other (oxyhydr)oxides. As a result, it was speculated that goethite shows a smaller adsorption capacity. It is likely that the affinity of goethite is much more larger for As(III) (arsenite) than for As(V) (arsenate), because As(III) was observed to be much more adsorbed on goethite than As(V) in equivalent pH conditions. When the adsorption of each arsenic species onto goethite was characterized in various of pH, the adsorption of As(III) was largest in neutral pH range (7.0~9.0) and decreased in both acidic and alkaline pH conditions. In the case of As(V), the adsorption appeared to be highest in the lowest pH condition, and then decreased with an increase of pH. This peculiarity of arsenic adsorption onto goethite might be caused by macroscopic electrostatic interactions due to variation in chemical speciation of arsenic and surface charge of goethite, and also it is significantly affected by change in pH. Parabolic diffusion model was adequate to effectively evaluate arsenic adsorption on goethite, and the regression results show that the kinetic constant of As(V) is larger than that of As(III).

A Study on derivation of drought severity-duration-frequency curve through a non-stationary frequency analysis (비정상성 가뭄빈도 해석 기법에 따른 가뭄 심도-지속기간-재현기간 곡선 유도에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Minsu;Park, Seo-Yeon;Jang, Ho-Won;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzed past drought characteristics based on the observed rainfall data and performed a long-term outlook for future extreme droughts using Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) used duration of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, a meteorological drought index, was applied for quantitative drought analysis. A single long-term time series was constructed by combining daily rainfall observation data and RCP scenario. The constructed data was used as SPI input factors for each different duration. For the analysis of meteorological drought observed relatively long-term since 1954 in Korea, 12 rainfall stations were selected and applied 10 general circulation models (GCM) at the same point. In order to analyze drought characteristics according to climate change, trend analysis and clustering were performed. For non-stationary frequency analysis using sampling technique, we adopted the technique DEMC that combines Bayesian-based differential evolution ("DE") and Markov chain Monte Carlo ("MCMC"). A non-stationary drought frequency analysis was used to derive Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves for the 12 locations. A quantitative outlook for future droughts was carried out by deriving SDF curves with long-term hydrologic data assuming non-stationarity, and by quantitatively identifying potential drought risks. As a result of performing cluster analysis to identify the spatial characteristics, it was analyzed that there is a high risk of drought in the future in Jeonju, Gwangju, Yeosun, Mokpo, and Chupyeongryeong except Jeju corresponding to Zone 1-2, 2, and 3-2. They could be efficiently utilized in future drought management policies.

A Study of the Reactive Movement Synchronization for Analysis of Group Flow (그룹 몰입도 판단을 위한 움직임 동기화 연구)

  • Ryu, Joon Mo;Park, Seung-Bo;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.79-94
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the high value added business is steadily growing in the culture and art area. To generated high value from a performance, the satisfaction of audience is necessary. The flow in a critical factor for satisfaction, and it should be induced from audience and measures. To evaluate interest and emotion of audience on contents, producers or investors need a kind of index for the measurement of the flow. But it is neither easy to define the flow quantitatively, nor to collect audience's reaction immediately. The previous studies of the group flow were evaluated by the sum of the average value of each person's reaction. The flow or "good feeling" from each audience was extracted from his face, especially, the change of his (or her) expression and body movement. But it was not easy to handle the large amount of real-time data from each sensor signals. And also it was difficult to set experimental devices, in terms of economic and environmental problems. Because, all participants should have their own personal sensor to check their physical signal. Also each camera should be located in front of their head to catch their looks. Therefore we need more simple system to analyze group flow. This study provides the method for measurement of audiences flow with group synchronization at same time and place. To measure the synchronization, we made real-time processing system using the Differential Image and Group Emotion Analysis (GEA) system. Differential Image was obtained from camera and by the previous frame was subtracted from present frame. So the movement variation on audience's reaction was obtained. And then we developed a program, GEX(Group Emotion Analysis), for flow judgment model. After the measurement of the audience's reaction, the synchronization is divided as Dynamic State Synchronization and Static State Synchronization. The Dynamic State Synchronization accompanies audience's active reaction, while the Static State Synchronization means to movement of audience. The Dynamic State Synchronization can be caused by the audience's surprise action such as scary, creepy or reversal scene. And the Static State Synchronization was triggered by impressed or sad scene. Therefore we showed them several short movies containing various scenes mentioned previously. And these kind of scenes made them sad, clap, and creepy, etc. To check the movement of audience, we defined the critical point, ${\alpha}$and ${\beta}$. Dynamic State Synchronization was meaningful when the movement value was over critical point ${\beta}$, while Static State Synchronization was effective under critical point ${\alpha}$. ${\beta}$ is made by audience' clapping movement of 10 teams in stead of using average number of movement. After checking the reactive movement of audience, the percentage(%) ratio was calculated from the division of "people having reaction" by "total people". Total 37 teams were made in "2012 Seoul DMC Culture Open" and they involved the experiments. First, they followed induction to clap by staff. Second, basic scene for neutralize emotion of audience. Third, flow scene was displayed to audience. Forth, the reversal scene was introduced. And then 24 teams of them were provided with amuse and creepy scenes. And the other 10 teams were exposed with the sad scene. There were clapping and laughing action of audience on the amuse scene with shaking their head or hid with closing eyes. And also the sad or touching scene made them silent. If the results were over about 80%, the group could be judged as the synchronization and the flow were achieved. As a result, the audience showed similar reactions about similar stimulation at same time and place. Once we get an additional normalization and experiment, we can obtain find the flow factor through the synchronization on a much bigger group and this should be useful for planning contents.

A Preliminary Study for Evaluating on Demonstration Project of Community-based Home Health Care Nursing Services by the Seoul Nurses Association (지역사회중심 가정간호 시범사업 성과평가를 위한 기초연구- 서울시 간호사회 주관 -)

  • 유호신;이소우;문희자;황나미;박성애;박정숙;최행지;정기순;한상애
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.1488-1502
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    • 2000
  • This study, based on current home nursing services, aims at promoting measures for establishing a community-based home nursing system derived from the pilot home nursing demonstration project conducted by the Seoul Nurses Association. The study was based on an analysis of home nursing records from march 1993 to December 1999. The following is a summary analysis, based on individual characteristics of the patients, the organization, which recommended the service for their patients and personnel services. 1. The service has been used by many elderly people 60years of age or older(66.4%). and married people(60.9%). The average number of visits by service personnel for patients of city government was 23.5. This is 2.5 times as many visits by general patients. General patients(20.2%) had only one visit from service personnel, while 65.5% of patients of city government had 10 or more visits. Particularly, for government recommended patients, 72.7% of the patients were recommended by nurses, while only 21.9% where referred to the services by doctors. The main focus of a home nursing service was to maintain present health status (53.4%), and hospice(11.6%). Also to increase hospital-based home nursing services focused on recovery(55.9%) and maintain present health conditions (19.0%). 2. For general patients, 42.0% of patients were suffering from problems related to CVA, 11.3% from high blood pressure, and for patients referred from city, 21.2% from skeletal muscular disease. Results of home nursing services 29.4% of patients were able to recover or maintain their health status, but 48.9% of the patients died. Another main point of community-based home nursing services is medication(6.7%), other basic nursing services(6.1%), special treatment, instructions on how to use medical devices(5.9%), change of physical posture(4.6%), and training on changing physical positions(4.7%). As mentioned above there were some differences between the characteristics of patients who used the pilot home nursing service conducted by the Seoul Nurses Association and those hospital-based service users. The results are believed to be useful to support a community-based home nursing service model. Particularly, patients under medical supervision and patients recommended by government-run health clinics show a higher frequency and longer use of home nursing services compared to general patients or hospital-based home nursing service users. According to the study, nurses accounted for a large number of recommendations for home nursing services. Many patients with CVA, high blood pressure, skeletal muscular disease and bedsores used community-based home nursing services, while others used the service for minor treatments or maintaining their current health status. Based on the study, the researchers make several suggestions to establish a community- based home nursing service system. First, different ways of setting up a community-based home nursing system have to be mapped out based on the evaluation of the pilot home nursing service conducted by the Seoul Nurses Association. Secondly, a new, community-based, home health care nursing service model, and reimbursement payment system have to be developed. This is based on the outcome of the analysis, and implemented policy. Accordingly, efforts are needed to develop a community- based home nursing system with an intermediary role to promote the visiting nursing services of government-run health centers.

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Water Balance and Pollutant Load Analyses according to LID Techniques for a Town Development (도시 개발 전·후 LID 기법 적용에 따른 물수지 및 오염부하 변동 특성)

  • Park, Ji-Young;Lim, Hyun-Man;Lee, Hae-In;Yoon, Young-Han;Oh, Hyun-Je;Kim, Weon-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.35 no.11
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    • pp.795-802
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    • 2013
  • According to the increase of impervious area due to the town development, the rate of infiltration generally lessens and that of runoff rises during wet weather events. And it is concerned that its impacts on water quality for the downstream water bodies due to the change of rainfall runoff patterns may also increase. To cope with these issues, LID (Low Impact Development) techniques which try to maintain the characteristics of rainfall runoff regardless of the town development have been introduced actively. However, the behaviors of each LID technique for rainfall runoff and pollutant loads is not understood sufficiently. In this study, considering the applications of some LID techniques, several sets of simulations using a distributed rainfall runoff model, SWMM-LID, have been conducted for D town whose development is progressing. As the results of the simulations, the rates of infiltration/storage have been decreased from 78% in the case before the town development to 15% after the development and increased again by 24% with LID techniques such as porous pavement, rain barrel and rain garden. The rates of runoff have been increased more than three times from 20% in the case before the development to 74% after the development, and they have also been decreased to 66% by the adoption of LID techniques. It has been simulated that porous pavement is more effective than others in the view point of the reduction of runoff and rain barrel is more attractive for the management of pollutant loads (TSS, BOD, COD, T-N and T-P). Therefore, if some LID techniques should be selected for the a new town, it could be concluded that some techniques with better infiltration functions are recommendable for the control of runoff, and ones with larger storage functions for the management of pollutant loads.

A Study of Fluoride Adsorption in Aqueous Solution Using Iron Sludge based Adsorbent at Mine Drainage Treatment Facility (광산배수 정화시설 철 슬러지 기반 흡착제를 활용한 수용액상 불소 흡착에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Joon Hak;Kim, Sun Joon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.709-716
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    • 2021
  • In this study, an adsorbent prepared by natural drying of iron hydroxide-based sludge collected from settling basin at a mine drainage treatment facility located in Gangneung, Gangwon-do was used to remove fluoride in an artificial fluoride solution and mine drainage, and the adsorption characteristics of the adsorbent were investigated. As a result of analyzing the chemical composition, mineralogical properties, and specific surface area of the adsorbent used in the experiment, iron oxide (Fe2O3) occupies 79.2 wt.% as the main constituent, and a peak related to calcite (CaCO3) in the crystal structure analysis was analyzed. It was also identified that an irregular surface and a specific surface area of 216.78 m2·g-1. In the indoor batch-type experiment, the effect of changes in reaction time, pH, initial fluoride concentration and temperature on the change in adsorption amount was analyzed. The adsorption of fluoride showed an adsorption amount of 3.85 mg·g-1 16 hours after the start of the reaction, and the increase rate of the adsorption amount gradually decreased. Also, as the pH increased, the amount of fluoride adsorption decreased, and in particular, the amount of fluoride adsorption decreased rapidly around pH 5.5, the point of zero charge at which the surface charge of the adsorbent changes. Meanwhile, the results of the isotherm adsorption experiment were applied to the Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm adsorption models to infer the fluoride adsorption mechanism of the used adsorbent. To understand the thermodynamic properties of the adsorbent using the Van't Hoff equation, thermodynamic constants 𝚫H° and 𝚫G° were calculated using the adsorption amount information obtained by increasing the temperature from 25℃ to 65℃ to determine the adsorption characteristics of the adsorbent. Finally, the adsorbent was applied to the mine drainage having a fluoride concentration of about 12.8 mg·L-1, and the fluoride removal rate was about 50%.

Active Seniors' Organizational and Functional Entrepreneurial Competencies: Discovering Unobserved Heterogeneous Relationships between Entrepreneurial Efficacy and Entrepreneurial Intention using PLS-POS (액티브 시니어의 조직적과 기능적 창업역량: PLS-POS를 이용한 창업 효능감과 창업의지의 이질성 관계 확인)

  • Shin, Hyang Sook;Bae, Jee-eun;Chao, Meiyu;Lee, Yong-Ki
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.15-31
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    • 2022
  • This study was conducted to suggest a start-up policy that includes start-up education and support for active seniors with various careers who try to change their careers before and after retirement. From this point of view, this study divided the factors affecting the entrepreneurial will of active seniors into entrepreneurship organizational and functional competency and identified the effect of these competencies on entrepreneurial efficacy and entrepreneurial intention. In the proposed model, start-up competency is divided into organizational competency (leadership, creativity problem-solving, communication, decision-making) and functional competency (management strategy, marketing, business plan). And this study examined the mediating role of entrepreneurial efficacy in the relationship between entrepreneurial competency factors and entrepreneurial intention. Meanwhile, PLS-POS analysis was performed to uncover the heterogeneity and pattern in the proposed structural model. The survey was conducted with the help of an online survey company from November 27 to December 15, 2020 for the active senior age group from 40 to under 65 years old. Data were collected from a total of 433 panelists and analyzed using SPSS 22.0 and SmartPLS 3.3.7 programs. The findings are as follows. First, the finding shows that the entrepreneurial organizational and functional competencies of active seniors had significant positive(+) effects on entrepreneurial efficacy. Second, the result shows that entrepreneurial organizational and functional competencies of active seniors had significant positive(+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. Third, the findings show that entrepreneurship efficacy had a significantly positive(+) effect on entrepreneurial intention. The findings of PLS-POS show that entrepreneurship education needs to be carried out by identifying the needs that require entrepreneurial organizational and functional competency when training for entrepreneurship competency. In summary, the findings of the current study are to determine what the competency factors are for the government (local government) to increase the policy direction necessary for establishing and implementing entrepreneurship education and training programs to develop policies to enhance the economic activity participation rate of active seniors.

Edge to Edge Model and Delay Performance Evaluation for Autonomous Driving (자율 주행을 위한 Edge to Edge 모델 및 지연 성능 평가)

  • Cho, Moon Ki;Bae, Kyoung Yul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.191-207
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    • 2021
  • Up to this day, mobile communications have evolved rapidly over the decades, mainly focusing on speed-up to meet the growing data demands of 2G to 5G. And with the start of the 5G era, efforts are being made to provide such various services to customers, as IoT, V2X, robots, artificial intelligence, augmented virtual reality, and smart cities, which are expected to change the environment of our lives and industries as a whole. In a bid to provide those services, on top of high speed data, reduced latency and reliability are critical for real-time services. Thus, 5G has paved the way for service delivery through maximum speed of 20Gbps, a delay of 1ms, and a connecting device of 106/㎢ In particular, in intelligent traffic control systems and services using various vehicle-based Vehicle to X (V2X), such as traffic control, in addition to high-speed data speed, reduction of delay and reliability for real-time services are very important. 5G communication uses high frequencies of 3.5Ghz and 28Ghz. These high-frequency waves can go with high-speed thanks to their straightness while their short wavelength and small diffraction angle limit their reach to distance and prevent them from penetrating walls, causing restrictions on their use indoors. Therefore, under existing networks it's difficult to overcome these constraints. The underlying centralized SDN also has a limited capability in offering delay-sensitive services because communication with many nodes creates overload in its processing. Basically, SDN, which means a structure that separates signals from the control plane from packets in the data plane, requires control of the delay-related tree structure available in the event of an emergency during autonomous driving. In these scenarios, the network architecture that handles in-vehicle information is a major variable of delay. Since SDNs in general centralized structures are difficult to meet the desired delay level, studies on the optimal size of SDNs for information processing should be conducted. Thus, SDNs need to be separated on a certain scale and construct a new type of network, which can efficiently respond to dynamically changing traffic and provide high-quality, flexible services. Moreover, the structure of these networks is closely related to ultra-low latency, high confidence, and hyper-connectivity and should be based on a new form of split SDN rather than an existing centralized SDN structure, even in the case of the worst condition. And in these SDN structural networks, where automobiles pass through small 5G cells very quickly, the information change cycle, round trip delay (RTD), and the data processing time of SDN are highly correlated with the delay. Of these, RDT is not a significant factor because it has sufficient speed and less than 1 ms of delay, but the information change cycle and data processing time of SDN are factors that greatly affect the delay. Especially, in an emergency of self-driving environment linked to an ITS(Intelligent Traffic System) that requires low latency and high reliability, information should be transmitted and processed very quickly. That is a case in point where delay plays a very sensitive role. In this paper, we study the SDN architecture in emergencies during autonomous driving and conduct analysis through simulation of the correlation with the cell layer in which the vehicle should request relevant information according to the information flow. For simulation: As the Data Rate of 5G is high enough, we can assume the information for neighbor vehicle support to the car without errors. Furthermore, we assumed 5G small cells within 50 ~ 250 m in cell radius, and the maximum speed of the vehicle was considered as a 30km ~ 200 km/hour in order to examine the network architecture to minimize the delay.