• Title/Summary/Keyword: causality analysis

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The Impact of Regional Economic Growth on Intraregional Disparities in Korea (지역경제 성장에 따른 지역 내부의 경제적 격차 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ju-Han;Kim, Donghyun
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2020
  • The aims of this study to identify the relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional regional disparities. The 16 metropolitan area, the Capital region and the southeastern region of Korea were put in the spatial scope and the time range from 2005 to 2016. Regional gross domestic product data were used to show regional growth and intraregional disparity. Panel data for each spatial unit were established, panel unit root test and panel cointegration test were conducted to check the stability of the data. The DOLS method was used to identify relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional disparity, and the VECM model and Granger causality test was conducted to verify causality. The result of analysis of 16 metropolitan area units showed that the intraregional disparity increases as regional economic growth progresses. When the regional gross domestic product increased by 1%, the intraregional disparity increased by 1.258%, and there are short-term and long-term causality. Both the Capital region and the southeastern region had a mutual relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional disparity, but the disparity in the Capital region showed an increase and the southeastern region showed a decrease. The results of this study show that the regional disparity is increasing nationwide, but the Capital region and the southeastern region showed different stages of growth.

The Causality among Residents' Loyalty to an Environmental Festival and Its Influential Factors: With Special Reference to Hampyung Butterfly Festival (지역주민의 환경축제 충성도와 그 영향요인 간의 인과관계 - 함평나비축제를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Kyeong-Jin;Song, Myung-Gyu
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.337-352
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    • 2014
  • The main purposes of this study are to find the causality among residents' loyalty to an environmental festival and its influential factors and, based upon the findings, to explore environmental festivals' developmental vision with special reference to Hampyung Butterfly Festival. Under these aims, this study applies structural equation modeling(SEM). The structural model for SEM analysis is composed of four independent variables which consist of residents' attachment(RA) to their region where its own environmental festival is provided, residents' participational intention(RP) to the festival, the economic effects(EE) of the festival, and the communication(CM) between the residents and the festival providers, one intermediate variable, residents' satisfaction(RS) from the festival, and one final dependent variable, residents' loyalty(RL) to the festival. The causality among these variables is hypothesized as follows; Among the independent variables, RP, EE, and CM have effects only on RS and RA has an effect on both RS and RL. And RS has an effect on RL. The facts found from the SEM are summed up as follows; First, (1) RP and CM turn out to have statistically significant effects on RS, (2) RA is confirmed to have a statistically very significant effect on both RS and RL, and (3) RS is also proved to show a statistically very significant effect on RL. Second, the total effects on RL of independent variables are stronger in the order of RA, CM, and RP. Third, EE seems to have no effect on RS, consequently no effect on RL, either. The reason why EE has no effect looks like to be due to environmental festivals' peculiar features. These findings offer the following suggestions for the future of environmental festivals in the part of festival providers. Firstly, to be successful in the festival, they have to provoke RL above all. Second, to do so, they need to encourage RA, CM, and RP in the mentioned order in the long run. Third, but for a short period, they had better concentrate upon promoting RS.

Prediction and Causality Examination of the Environment Service Industry and Distribution Service Industry (환경서비스업과 물류서비스업의 예측 및 인과성 검정)

  • Sun, Il-Suck;Lee, Choong-Hyo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - The world now recognizes environmental disruption as a serious issue when regarding growth-oriented strategies; therefore, environmental preservation issues become pertinent. Consequently, green distribution is continuously emphasized. However, studying the prediction and association of distribution and the environment is insufficient. Most existing studies about green distribution are about its necessity, detailed operation methods, and political suggestions; it is necessary to study the distribution service industry and environmental service industry together, for green distribution. Research design, data, and methodology - ARIMA (auto-regressive moving average model) was used to predict the environmental service and distribution service industries, and the Granger Causality Test based on VAR (vector auto regressive) was used to analyze the causal relationship. This study used 48 quarters of time-series data, from the 4th quarter in 2001 to the 3rd quarter in 2013, about each business type's production index, and used an unchangeable index. The production index about the business type is classified into the current index and the unchangeable index. The unchangeable index divides the current index into deflators to remove fluctuation. Therefore, it is easy to analyze the actual production index. This study used the unchangeable index. Results - The production index of the distribution service industry and the production index of the environmental service industry consider the autocorrelation coefficient and partial autocorrelation coefficient; therefore, ARIMA(0,0,2)(0,1,1)4 and ARIMA(3,1,0)(0,1,1)4 were established as final prediction models, resulting in the gradual improvement in every production index of both types of business. Regarding the distribution service industry's production index, it is predicted that the 4th quarter in 2014 is 114.35, and the 4th quarter in 2015 is 123.48. Moreover, regarding the environmental service industry's production index, it is predicted that the 4th quarter in 2014 is 110.95, and the 4th quarter in 2015 is 111.67. In a causal relationship analysis, the environmental service industry impacts the distribution service industry, but the distribution service industry does not impact the environmental service industry. Conclusions - This study predicted the distribution service industry and environmental service industry with the ARIMA model, and examined the causal relationship between them through the Granger causality test based on the VAR Model. Prediction reveals the seasonality and gradual increase in the two industries. Moreover, the environmental service industry impacts the distribution service industry, but the distribution service industry does not impact the environmental service industry. This study contributed academically by offering base line data needed in the establishment of a future style of management and policy directions for the two industries through the prediction of the distribution service industry and the environmental service industry, and tested a causal relationship between them, which is insufficient in existing studies. The limitations of this study are that deeper considerations of advanced studies are deficient, and the effect of causality between the two types of industries on the actual industry was not established.

Time Series Analysis of the Relationship between Housing Consumer Sentiment and Regional Housing Prices in Seoul (서울시 주택소비심리와 권역별 주택가격의 시계열적 관계분석)

  • Yang, Hye-Seon;Seo, Won-Seok
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.125-141
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    • 2020
  • This study investigated the time-series relationship between housing consumer sentiment and housing prices in the five major districts in Seoul and also analyzed the effect of the housing consumer sentiment on housing prices using Granger Causality and VEC (Vector Error Correction) models. To describe the key results, first of all, housing consumer sentiment and regional housing market prices were closely related to each other, and the consumer sentiment strongly affected the change of housing prices. Second, the housing consumer sentiment was confirmed to have a discriminatory effect on the housing prices among the districts in Seoul in the short term. Specifically, the housing price of the east southern district (ESD) was the main reason for the change in housing consumer sentiment in Seoul, and that the resulting impact was transferred to other districts. Third, it was analyzed that regions other than the ESD would increase the housing prices in the long term as the housing consumer sentiment turned positive, but that the ESD would see a steady tone. Fourth, in the case of relative influence by district, housing (apartment) price fluctuation in a district was generally found to be most affected by adjacent or competitive districts. Through these findings, this study confirmed that there is a clear causality between housing consumer sentiment and housing prices in each district of Seoul and that there is a discriminatory influence on housing consumer sentiment among the districts.

An Analysis on Causalities Among GDP, Electricity Consumption, CO2 Emission and FDI Inflow in Korea (한국의 경제성장, 전력소비, CO2 배출 및 외국인직접투자 유입 간 인과관계 분석)

  • Park, Chang-dae;Kim, Sung-won;Park, Jung-gu
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2019
  • This article analyzes causal relationships among gross domestic product(GDP), electricity consumption, carbon dioxide($CO_2$) emission and foreign direct investments(FDI) inflow of Korea over the period from 1976 to 2014, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model(VECM). As the results, this article found (1) a long-run bi-directional causality between GDP and electricity consumption, which may imply a negative impact of electricity consumption-saving policy on economic growth, (2) uni-directional short- and long-run causalities running from $CO_2$ emission to GDP, and a uni-directional long-run causality running from $CO_2$ emission to electricity consumption, which can result in a negative impact of $CO_2$ emission reduction policy on economic growth and electricity consumption, (3) a uni-directional long-run causality running from FDI to GDP, and uni-directional short- and long-run causalities running from FDI to electricity consumption, which may result from relatively lower electricity prices than investing countries, (4) no causality between FDI and $CO_2$ emission, which is based on the characteristics of FDI composed of service industries. Considering the above causal relationships among the four variables, the policy implication needs to focus on the electricity demand management based on the relevant R&Ds, and on the gradual transition from fossil fuel- to renewable-energy. Adaptive policy to increase the FDI inflow is also needed.

Dynamics of Crude Oil and Real Exchange Rate in India

  • ALAM, Md. Shabbir;UDDIN, Mohammed Ahmar;JAMIL, Syed Ahsan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.123-129
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    • 2020
  • This scholarly work is an effort to capture the effects of oil prices on the actual exchange rate between dollar and rupee. This is done with reference to the U.S. dollar as oil prices are marked in USD (U.S. Dollar) in the international market, and India is among the top five importers of oil. Using monthly data from January 2001 to May 2020. The study used the real GDP, money supply, short-term interest rate difference between two countries, and inflation apart from the crude oil prices per barrel as the factors that help define the exchange rate. The analysis, through cointegration and vector error correction method (VECM), suggests long and short-run causality amid prices of oil and the rate of exchange fluctuations. Oil prices are found to be negatively related to the exchange rate in the long term but positively related in the short term. The result of the Wald test also indicates the short-run causation from the short-term interest rate and the prices of crude oil towards the exchange rate. The present study shows that oil prices are evidence of the existence of short-term and long-term driving associations with short-term interest rates and exchange rates.

Applicability Comparison of Transmission Line Parameter Extraction Methods for Busbar Distribution Systems

  • Hasirci, Zeynep;Cavdar, Ismail Hakki;Ozturk, Mehmet
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.586-593
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    • 2017
  • Modeling busbar distribution system as a transmission line is an important subject of power line communication in the smart grid concept. This requires extraction of busbar RLGC parameters, accurately. In this study, a comparison is made between conventional and modified method for the aspect of optimum RLGC parameters extraction in the 1 MHz to 50 MHz frequency band. The usefulness of these methods is shown both in time and frequency-domain analysis. The frequency-domain analyzes show that the inherent power of modified method can eliminate the errors especially due to the discontinuities arise in conventional method. This makes the modeling approach of modified method more advantageous for the busbars due to its robustness against disturbances in the S-parameters measurements which cannot be eliminated with the calibration procedure. On the other hand, time-domain simulations show that the transmission line representation of the modified method is closer to physical reality by handling causality issues.

A Study on the Mutual Effect between Small & Medium-sized Enterprises and Economic Growth: Evidence from Alibaba Group and City of Hangzhou

  • He, Yugang
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - From the advanced path of development and current situation, the development of enterprises plays a tremendous role in promoting national economic growth and raising the overall national strength. Therefore, this paper aims at examining the mutual effect between small & medium enterprises and economic growth. Research design, data, and methodology - In order to address the operating mutual effect between the small & medium enterprises and economic growth more clearly, this paper sets Alibaba Group and Hangzhou as an example. Meanwhile, the annual data from 2000 to 2017 will be employed, and an empirical analysis will be performed under the vector error correction model. Results - The findings display that the total revenue of Alibaba Group has a positive effect on economic growth in city of Hangzhou. However, the Granger Causality test implies that there is only a unidirectional causality between total revenue of Alibaba Group and economic growth in Hangzhou. More specifically, 1% increase in total revenue of Alibaba Group can result in 0.272% in economic growth of Hangzhou in the long run. Conclusions - In summary, for the long run, the local governments should promulgate a series of policies to assist the small & medium enterprises like Alibaba Group to improve the local economic growth as seen in the city of Hangzhou.

A Study on Causality between Total Quality Management and Performance of Secondary-Care Hospital Using Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award Model for Healthcare (말콤 볼드리지 모형을 이용한 2차 의료기관의 전사적 품질관리와 성과 간의 인과관계 연구)

  • Kwon, June-Duk;Yoon, Chiho;Oh, Hyun-Jong;Park, Beom-Gyu;Kim, Yang-Kyun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.11-30
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to lay groundwork for future research on the outcomes of national quality awards for secondary-care healthcare organizations. Methods: For this study, a secondary-care hospital was selected through a convenience sampling method and all of its organizational members participated in complete enumeration survey using 109 survey questions derived from the MBNQA criteria for healthcare through structural equation modeling (SEM) Results: As a result, Leadership was shown to drive Foundation and Direction, which affect System that creates Results with 12 hypotheses supported out of 18 hypotheses established. Conclusion: The findings of this study will provide valuable implications to the top management of secondary-care hospitals for self-examining quality management and promoting sustainable competitiveness.

Causality of Placeness Cognition by Using Structural Equation Modeling in Suseong Amusement Park (수성유원지 장소성 인식 요인 인과구조모형 분석)

  • Han, Jae-Gyeong;Eom, Boong-Hoon
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.29 no.10
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    • pp.961-968
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to analyze the causality of placeness cognition which includes the place satisfaction, place attachment, place function, and behavioral intention of those who visit Suseong amusement park. A questionnaire survey was administered to 255 individuals who visited in Suseong amusement park. To conduct the analysis, six hypotheses were formulated and tested. While two hypotheses were statistically rejected, four hypotheses were accepted. First, place satisfaction was found to have a positive effect on place function (β=.577, p<0.001). Second, place attachment had a positive effect on behavioral intention (β=.450, p<0.001). Third, place function had a positive effect on behavioral intention (β=.247, p<0.05). Fourth, place function was found to have a positive effect on place attachment (β=.637, p<0.001). Unlike most existing research which has indicated that place satisfaction has a direct effect on behavioral intention this study suggests a that double mediating effect through place function and place attachment between place satisfaction and behavioral intention. In addition to increasing satisfaction through the environment of the Suseong Amusement Park, it is also necessary to improve the function of the place to ensure repeated visits from visitors.