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http://dx.doi.org/10.22640/lxsiri.2020.50.1.125

Time Series Analysis of the Relationship between Housing Consumer Sentiment and Regional Housing Prices in Seoul  

Yang, Hye-Seon (Department of Urban Planning and Real Estate, Chung-Ang University)
Seo, Won-Seok (Department of Urban Planning and Real Estate, Chung-Ang University)
Publication Information
Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX / v.50, no.1, 2020 , pp. 125-141 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study investigated the time-series relationship between housing consumer sentiment and housing prices in the five major districts in Seoul and also analyzed the effect of the housing consumer sentiment on housing prices using Granger Causality and VEC (Vector Error Correction) models. To describe the key results, first of all, housing consumer sentiment and regional housing market prices were closely related to each other, and the consumer sentiment strongly affected the change of housing prices. Second, the housing consumer sentiment was confirmed to have a discriminatory effect on the housing prices among the districts in Seoul in the short term. Specifically, the housing price of the east southern district (ESD) was the main reason for the change in housing consumer sentiment in Seoul, and that the resulting impact was transferred to other districts. Third, it was analyzed that regions other than the ESD would increase the housing prices in the long term as the housing consumer sentiment turned positive, but that the ESD would see a steady tone. Fourth, in the case of relative influence by district, housing (apartment) price fluctuation in a district was generally found to be most affected by adjacent or competitive districts. Through these findings, this study confirmed that there is a clear causality between housing consumer sentiment and housing prices in each district of Seoul and that there is a discriminatory influence on housing consumer sentiment among the districts.
Keywords
Housing Consumer Sentiment; Housing Price; Housing Market; Apartment; Granger Causality; VECM (Vector Error Correction Model);
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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