• 제목/요약/키워드: bayesian approach

검색결과 628건 처리시간 0.02초

원자력 발전소 사고 예측 및 발전소 운행중지 정책 결정에 관한 연구 (Forecasting and Deciding When to Shutdown a Nuclear Power Plant to Prevent a Severe Accident)

  • Yang, Hee-Joong
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제23권55호
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2000
  • To make a better decision about when to shutdown a nuclear power plant, we build a decision model using influence diagrams. We proceed the analysis adopting a bayesian approach. Firstly, an accident arrival rate is assumed to be known and this assumption is relaxed later. We perform our analysis on the cases of exponential time to accidents, and gamma distribution for the arrival rate. An optimal shutdown time is obtained considering the trade-off between the costs incurred by an accident due to late shutdown and the possible loss of revenues due to the early shutdown. We also derive the upper bound of the failure rate where we may operate the plant.

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파괴확률 산정을 위한 검측 데이터의 확률적 업데이트 (Updating Inspection Data to Estimate Probability of Failure)

  • 정태영;박흥민;이학;공정식
    • 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산구조공학회 2007년도 정기 학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.645-650
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    • 2007
  • According to most studies, assessment of aging structure is trend to detect flaw size by sensor than using existing subjective evaluation by expert for objective evaluation. But Uncertainties existing in the sensor make difference between measured flaw size and actual flaw size, In this paper, Probability of Detection(POD) have been used to quantify the uncertainties and POD is updated by relationship measured flaw size and actual flaw size (Heasler, 1990), also we proposed probabilistic updating approach method to improve measurement accuracy(the difference of measured PDF and actual PDF) by using updated POD.

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옹벽구조시스템의 신뢰성 및 안전도 해석 (Reliability and Safety Analysis of Structure System of Retaining Walls)

  • 정철원;윤병조
    • 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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    • 제2권3호
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    • pp.223-234
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    • 1998
  • In this study, an attempt is made to apply the concept of fuzzy-bayesian theory to the integrity assessment of structure system, and uncertainty states are represented in terms of fuzzy sets which define several linguistic variables such as "very good", "good", "average", "poor", "very poor", etc. Especially, the concept of fuzzy conditional probability aids to derive a new reliability analysis which includes the subjective assessment of engineers without introducing any additional correction factors. The fuzzy concept are also used as reliability indexes for the condition assessment based on the proposed models, the proposed fuzzy theory-based approach with the results of PEM and AFOSM are applied to retaining wall.

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하부시스템의 안전도 개선이 전체 시스템 안전도에 미치는 영향 분석 (Analysis of the Effects of Subsystem Improvements on the Total System Safety)

  • 양희중
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.129-134
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    • 2010
  • 본 논문에서는 하부 안전 시스템의 개선이 전체 안전 시스템에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위한 방법론을 개발하였다. 어느 하부 시스템의 안전성을 개선하느냐에 따라 전체 시스템의 안전성 증가는 서로 다르게 나타날 수도 있다. 본 연구에서는 베이지안 기법을 활용하여 사건가지와 상호연관도를 응용한 모형을 활용하였다. 또한 가지 파라메터의 확률 값 향상이 다음 번 사고까지의 시간을 어떻게 변화시키는지 연구하였다. 본 연구를 통해 우리가 관심을 갖고 있는 시스템 전체의 안전성 향상을 위해서는 어느 하부 시스템을 우선적으로 개선해야할지를 판단할 수 있게 한다.

Guitar Tab Digit Recognition and Play using Prototype based Classification

  • Baek, Byung-Hyun;Lee, Hyun-Jong;Hwang, Doosung
    • 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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    • 제21권9호
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    • pp.19-25
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    • 2016
  • This paper is to recognize and play tab chords from guitar musical sheets. The musical chord area of an input image is segmented by changing the image in saturation and applying the Grabcut algorithm. Based on a template matching, our approach detects tab starting sections on a segmented musical area. The virtual block method is introduced to search blanks over chord lines and extract tab fret segments, which doesn't cause the computation loss to remove tab lines. In the experimental tests, the prototype based classification outperforms Bayesian method and the nearest neighbor rule with the whole set of training data and its performance is similar to that of the support vector machine. The experimental result shows that the prediction rate is about 99.0% and the number of selected prototypes is below 3.0%.

프로젝트기간 예측모델을 위한 의사결정 지원시스템 (Decision Support System for Project Duration Estimation Model)

  • 조성빈
    • 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지능정보시스템학회 2000년도 추계정기학술대회:지능형기술과 CRM
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    • pp.369-374
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    • 2000
  • Despite their tilde application of some traditional project management techniques like the Program Evaluation and Review Technique, they lack of learning, one of important factors in many disciplines today due to a static view far prefect progression. This study proposes a framework for estimation by learning based on a Linear Bayesian approach. As a project progresses, we sequentially observe the durations of completed activities. By reflecting this newly available information to update the distribution of remaining activity durations and thus project duration, we can implement a decision support system that updates e.g. the expected project completion time as well as the probabilities of completing the project within talc due date and by a certain date. By Implementing such customized systems, project manager can be aware of changing project status more effectively and better revise resource allocation plans.

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Surrogate based model calibration for pressurized water reactor physics calculations

  • Khuwaileh, Bassam A.;Turinsky, Paul J.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제49권6호
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    • pp.1219-1225
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    • 2017
  • In this work, a scalable algorithm for model calibration in nuclear engineering applications is presented and tested. The algorithm relies on the construction of surrogate models to replace the original model within the region of interest. These surrogate models can be constructed efficiently via reduced order modeling and subspace analysis. Once constructed, these surrogate models can be used to perform computationally expensive mathematical analyses. This work proposes a surrogate based model calibration algorithm. The proposed algorithm is used to calibrate various neutronics and thermal-hydraulics parameters. The virtual environment for reactor applications-core simulator (VERA-CS) is used to simulate a three-dimensional core depletion problem. The proposed algorithm is then used to construct a reduced order model (a surrogate) which is then used in a Bayesian approach to calibrate the neutronics and thermal-hydraulics parameters. The algorithm is tested and the benefits of data assimilation and calibration are highlighted in an uncertainty quantification study and requantification after the calibration process. Results showed that the proposed algorithm could help to reduce the uncertainty in key reactor attributes based on experimental and operational data.

프로젝트기간예측모델을 위한 의사결정지원시스템 (Decision Support System for Project Duration Estimation Model)

  • 조성빈
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.91-98
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    • 2000
  • Despite their wide application of some traditional project management techniques like the Program Evaluation and Review Technique, they lack of learning, one of important factors in many disciplines today, due to a static view for project progression. This study proposes a framework for estimation by loaming based on a Linear Bayesian approach. As a project Progresses, we sequentially observe the durations of completed activities. By reflecting this newly available information to update the distribution of remaining activity durations and thus project duration, we can implement a decision support system that updates e.g., the expected project completion time as well as the probabilities of completing the project within the due bate and by a certain date. By implementing such customized system, project manager can be aware of changing project status more effectively and better revise resource allocation plans.

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An Assessment of Urbanization Using Historic Satellite Photography: Columbus Metropolitan Area, Ohio, 1965

  • Kim, Kee-Tae;Kim, Jung-Hwan;Jayakumar, S.;Sohn, Hong-Gyoo
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.221-227
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    • 2007
  • We present an analysis of urban development and growth with reconnaissance satellite photographs of Columbus metropolitan area acquired by the Corona program in 1965. A two-dimensional polynomial linear transformation was used to rectify the photos against United State Geological Survey (USGS) Large-scale Digital Line Graph (DLG) data georeferenced to Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates. The boundaries of the Columbus metropolitan area were extracted from the rectified Corona image mosaic using a Bayesian approach to image segmentation. The inferred 1965 urban boundaries were compared with 1976 USGS Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) data and boundaries derived from 1988 and 1994 Landsat TM images. The urban area in and around Columbus approximately doubled from 1965 to 1994 (${\sim}110%$) along with population growth from 1960 to 1998 (${\sim}50%$). Most of the urban expansion results from development of residential units.

Three-Dimensional Photon Counting Imaging with Enhanced Visual Quality

  • Lee, Jaehoon;Lee, Min-Chul;Cho, Myungjin
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.180-187
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we present a computational volumetric reconstruction method for three-dimensional (3D) photon counting imaging with enhanced visual quality when low-resolution elemental images are used under photon-starved conditions. In conventional photon counting imaging with low-resolution elemental images, it may be difficult to estimate the 3D scene correctly because of a lack of scene information. In addition, the reconstructed 3D images may be blurred because volumetric computational reconstruction has an averaging effect. In contrast, with our method, the pixels of the elemental image rearrangement technique and a Bayesian approach are used as the reconstruction and estimation methods, respectively. Therefore, our method can enhance the visual quality and estimation accuracy of the reconstructed 3D images because it does not have an averaging effect and uses prior information about the 3D scene. To validate our technique, we performed optical experiments and demonstrated the reconstruction results.