• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.37-45
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• 2008

It is expected that conditions of water resources will be changed in Korea in accordance with world wide climate change. In order to deal with this problem and find a way of minimizing the effect of future climate change, the usefulness of climate model simulation information is examined in this study. The objective of this study is to assess the applicability of GCM (General Circulation Model) information for Korean water resources management through uncertainty analysis. The methods are based on probabilistic measures of the effectiveness of GCM simulations of an indicator variable for discriminating high versus low regional observations of a target variable. The formulation uses the significance probability of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting differences between two variables. An estimator that accounts for climate model simulation and spatial association between the GCM data and observed data is used. Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations done by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) with a resolution of $2^{\circ}{\times}2^{\circ}$, and METRI (Meteorological Research Institute, Korea) with resolutions of $2^{\circ}{\times}2^{\circ}$ and $4^{\circ}{\times}5^{\circ}$, were used for indicator variables, while observed mean areal precipitation (MAP) data, discharge data and mean areal temperature data on the seven major river basins in Korea were used for target variables. The results show that GCM simulations are useful in discriminating the high from the low of the observed precipitation, discharge, and temperature values. Temperature especially can be useful regardless of model and season.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.147-174
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• 2005

To understand the physical processes that control the high-latitude lower thermospheric dynamics, we quantify the forces that are mainly responsible for maintaining the high-latitude lower thermospheric wind system with the aid of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (NCAR-TIEGCM). Momentum forcing is statistically analyzed in magnetic coordinates, and its behavior with respect to the magnitude and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is further examined. By subtracting the values with zero IMF from those with non-zero IMF, we obtained the difference winds and forces in the high-latitude 1ower thermosphere(<180 km). They show a simple structure over the polar cap and auroral regions for positive($B_y$ > 0.8|$\overline{B}_z$ |) or negative($B_y$ < -0.8|$\overline{B}_z$|) IMF-$\overline{B}_y$ conditions, with maximum values appearing around -80$^{\circ}$ magnetic latitude. Difference winds and difference forces for negative and positive $\overline{B}_y$ have an opposite sign and similar strength each other. For positive($B_z$ > 0.3125|$\overline{B}_y$|) or negative($B_z$ < -0.3125|$\overline{B}_y$|) IMF-$\overline{B}_z$ conditions the difference winds and difference forces are noted to subauroral latitudes. Difference winds and difference forces for negative $\overline{B}_z$ have an opposite sign to positive $\overline{B}_z$ condition. Those for negative $\overline{B}_z$ are stronger than those for positive indicating that negative $\overline{B}_z$ has a stronger effect on the winds and momentum forces than does positive $\overline{B}_z$ At higher altitudes(>125 km) the primary forces that determine the variations of tile neutral winds are the pressure gradient, Coriolis and rotational Pedersen ion drag forces; however, at various locations and times significant contributions can be made by the horizontal advection force. On the other hand, at lower altitudes(108-125 km) the pressure gradient, Coriolis and non-rotational Hall ion drag forces determine the variations of the neutral winds. At lower altitudes(<108 km) it tends to generate a geostrophic motion with the balance between the pressure gradient and Coriolis forces. The northward component of IMF By-dependent average momentum forces act more significantly on the neutral motion except for the ion drag. At lower altitudes(108-425 km) for negative IMF-$\overline{B}_y$ condition the ion drag force tends to generate a warm clockwise circulation with downward vertical motion associated with the adiabatic compress heating in the polar cap region. For positive IMF-$\overline{B}_y$ condition it tends to generate a cold anticlockwise circulation with upward vertical motion associated with the adiabatic expansion cooling in the polar cap region. For negative IMF-$\overline{B}_z$ the ion drag force tends to generate a cold anticlockwise circulation with upward vertical motion in the dawn sector. For positive IMF-$\overline{B}_z$ it tends to generate a warm clockwise circulation with downward vertical motion in the dawn sector.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.112-126
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• 1991

The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is ever-increasing and expected to reach about 600 ppmv some time during next century. Such an increase of $CO_2$ may cause a warming of the earth's surface of 1.5 to 4.5$^{\circ}C$, resulting in great changes in natural and agricultural ecosystems. The climatic scenario under doubled $CO_2$ projected by general circulation model of Goddard Institute for Space Studies(GISS) was adopted to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on agroclimatic resources, net primary productivity and rice productivity in Korea. The annual mean temperature was expected to rise by 3.5 to 4.$0^{\circ}C$ and the annual precipitation to vary by -5 to 20% as compared to current normal climate (1951 to 1980), resulting in the increase of possible duration of crop growth(days above 15$^{\circ}C$ in daily mean temperature) by 30 to 50 days and of effective accumulated temperature(EAT=∑Ti, Ti$\geq$1$0^{\circ}C$) by 1200 to 150$0^{\circ}C$. day which roughly corresponds to the shift of its isopleth northward by 300 to 400 km and by 600 to 700 m in altitude. The hydrological condition evaluated by radiative dryness index (RDI =Rn/ $\ell$P) is presumed to change slightly. The net primary productivity under the 2$\times$$CO_2$ climate was estimated to decrease by 3 to 4% when calculated without considering the photosynthesis stimulation due to $CO_2$ enrichment. Empirical crop-weather model was constructed for national rice yield prediction. The rice yields predicted by this model under 2 $\times$ $CO_2$ climatic scenario at the technological level of 1987 were lower by 34-43% than those under current normal climate. The parameters of MACROS, a dynamic simulation model from IRRI, were modified to simulate the growth and development of Korean rice cultivars under current and doubled $CO_2$ climatic condition. When simulated starting seedling emergence of May 10, the rice yield of Hwaseongbyeo(medium maturity) under 2 $\times$ $CO_2$ climate in Suwon showed 37% reduction compared to that under current normal climate. The yield reduction was ascribable mainly to the shortening of vegetative and ripening period due to accelerated development by higher temperature. Any simulated yields when shifted emergence date from April 10 to July 10 with Hwaseongbyeo (medium maturity) and Palgeum (late maturity) under 2 $\times$ $CO_2$ climate did not exceed the yield of Hwaseongbyeo simulated at seedling emergence on May 10 under current climate. The imaginary variety, having the same characteristics as those of Hwaseongbyeo except growth duration of 100 days from seedling emergence to heading, showed 4% increase in yield when simulated at seedling emergence on May 25 producing the highest yield. The simulation revealed that grain yields of rice increase to a greater extent under 2$\times$ $CO_2$-doubled condition than under current atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration as the plant type becomes more erect.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.405-414
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• 2021

This study predicted waxy corn harvest date in South Korea using 30-year (1991-2020) hindcasts (1-6 month lead) produced by the Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) chain. To estimate corn harvest date, the cumulative temperature is used, which accumulated the daily observed and predicted temperatures from the seeding date (5 April) to the reference temperature (1,650~2,200℃) for harvest. In terms of the mean air temperature, the hindcasts with a bias correction (20.2℃) tends to have a cold bias of about 0.1℃ for the 6 months (April to September) compared to the observation (20.3℃). The harvest date derived from bias-corrected hindcasts (DOY 187~210) well simulates one from observation (DOY 188~211), despite a slight margin of 1.1~1.3 days. The study shows the possibility of obtaining the gridded (5 km) daily temperature and corn harvest date information based on the cumulative temperature in advance for all regions of South Korea.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.577-592
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• 2021

This study evaluates the predictability of the number of days of heat and cold damages by growth stages of rice in South Korea using the hindcast data (1986~2020) produced by Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model-Weather Research and Forecasting (PNU CGCM-WRF) model chain. The predictability is accessed in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Standardized Deviations (NSD), Hit Rate (HR) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). For the purpose, the model predictability to produce the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, which are the variables used to define heat and cold damages for rice, are evaluated first. The result shows that most of the predictions starting the initial conditions from January to May (01RUN to 05RUN) have reasonable predictability, although it varies to some extent depending on the month at which integration starts. In particular, the ensemble average of 01RUN to 05RUN with equal weighting (ENS) has more reasonable predictability (RMSE is in the range of 1.2~2.6℃ and NSD is about 1.0) than individual RUNs. Accordingly, the regional patterns and characteristics of the predicted damages for rice due to excessive high- and low-temperatures are well captured by the model chain when compared with observation, particularly in regions where the damages occur frequently, in spite that hindcasted data somewhat overestimate the damages in terms of number of occurrence days. In ENS, the HR and HSS for heat (cold) damages in rice is in the ranges of 0.44~0.84 and 0.05~0.13 (0.58~0.81 and -0.01~0.10) by growth stage. Overall, it is concluded that the PNU CGCM-WRF chain of 01RUN~05RUN and ENS has reasonable capability to predict the heat and cold damages for rice in South Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.587-601
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• 2020

The ocean circulation was simulated in the East Sea and Ulleungdo-Dokdo region using ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) model. By adopting the East Sea 3 km model and the HYCOM 9 km data, Ulleungdo 1 km model and Ulleungdo-Dokdo 300 m model were constructed with one-way grid nesting method. During the model development, a correction method was proposed for the distortion of the open boundary data which may be caused by the bathymetry data difference between the mother and child models and the interpolation/extrapolation method. Using this model, a super-high resolution ocean circulation with a horizontal resolution of 300 m near the Ulleungdo and Dokdo region was simulated for year 2018. In spite of applying the same conditions except for the initial and boundary data, the numerical models result indicated significantly different characteristics in the study area. Therefore, these results were compared and verified by using the surface current data estimated by satellites altimeter data and temperature data from NIFS (National Institute of Fisheries Science). They suggest that in general, the improvement of the one-way grid nesting with the HYCOM data on RMSE, Mean Bias, Pattern correlation and Vector correlation is greater in 300 m model than in the 1 km model. However, the nesting results of using East Sea 3 km model showed that simulations of the 1 km model were better than 300 m model. The models better resolved distinct ridge/trough structures of isotherms in the vertical sections of water temperature when using the higher horizontal resolution. Furthermore, Karman vortex street was simulated in Ulleungdo-Dokdo 300 m model due to the terrain effect of th islands that was not shown in the Ulleungdo 1 km model.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.95-106
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• 2013

It is now generally known that dynamical climate modeling outputs include systematic biases in reproducing the properties of atmospheric variables such as, preciptation and temerature. There is thus, general consensus among the researchers about the need of bias-correction process prior to using climate model results especially for hydrologic applications. Among the number of bias-correction methods, distribution (e.g., cumulative distribution fuction, CDF) mapping based approach has been evaluated as one of the skillful techniques. This study investigates the uncertainty of using various CDF mapping-based methods for bias-correciton in assessing regional climate change Impacts. Two different dynamicailly-downscaled Global Circulation Model results (CCSM and GFDL under ARES4 A2 scenario) using Regional Spectial Model for retrospective peiod (1969-2000) and future period (2039-2069) were collected over the west central Florida. Total 12 possible methods (i.e., 3 for developing distribution by each of 4 for estimating biases in future projections) were examined and the variations among the results using different methods were evaluated in various ways. The results for daily temperature showed that while mean and standard deviation of Tmax and Tmin has relatively small variation among the bias-correction methods, monthly maximum values showed as significant variation (~2'C) as the mean differences between the retrospective simulations and future projections. The accuracy of raw preciptiation predictions was much worse than temerature and bias-corrected results appreared to be more significantly influenced by the methodologies. Furthermore the uncertainty of bias-correction was found to be relevant to the performance of climate model (i.e., CCSM results which showed relatively worse accuracy showed larger variation among the bias-correction methods). Concludingly bias-correction methodology is an important sourse of uncertainty among other processes that may be required for cliamte change impact assessment. This study underscores the need to carefully select a bias-correction method and that the approach for any given analysis should depend on the research question being asked.

• Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.135-145
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• 2006

The surface temperature and hydrological budget for the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulatedwith an atmospheric general circulation model of NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corespondingto a grid cel size of roughly 75 km. LGM simulations were forced with the reconstructed CLIMAP sea surface temperatures, sea ice distribution, ice sheet topography, reduced CO2, and orbital parameters.oC in winter, 5.6oC in sumer,and 6oC annual-mean. The decrease of surface temperature leads to a weakening of the hydrologicalcycle. Global-mean precipitation decreases by about 14% in winter, 17% in summer, and 13% annually.However, some regions such as the U.S., southern Europe, northern and eastern Africa, and the SouthAmerica appear to be weter in the LGM winter and Canada and the Midle East are weter in sumer. model captures detailed climate features over land.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.56 no.3
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• pp.803-811
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• 2024

Nuclear accidents such as Fukushima Daiichi have highlighted the potential of passive safety systems to replace or complement active safety systems as part of the overall prevention and/or mitigation strategies. In addition, passive systems are key features of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), for which they are becoming almost unavoidable and are part of the basic design of many reactors available in today's nuclear market. Nevertheless, their potential to significantly increase the safety of nuclear power plants still needs to be strengthened, in particular the ability of computer codes to determine their performance and reliability in industrial applications and support the safety demonstration. The PASTELS project (September 2020-February 2024), funded by the European Commission "Euratom H2020" programme, is devoted to the study of passive systems relying on natural circulation. The project focuses on two types, namely the SAfety COndenser (SACO) for the evacuation of the core residual power and the Containment Wall Condenser (CWC) for the reduction of heat and pressure in the containment vessel in case of accident. A specific design for each of these systems is being investigated in the project. Firstly, a straight vertical pool type of SACO has been implemented on the Framatome's PKL loop at Erlangen. It represents a tube bundle type heat exchanger that transfers heat from the secondary circuit to the water pool in which it is immersed by condensing the vapour generated in the steam generator. Secondly, the project relies on the CWC installed on the PASI test loop at LUT University in Finland. This facility reproduces the thermal-hydraulic behaviour of a Passive Containment Cooling System (PCCS) mainly composed of a CWC, a heat exchanger in the containment vessel connected to a water tank at atmospheric pressure outside the vessel which represents the ultimate heat sink. Several activities are carried out within the framework of the project. Different tests are conducted on these integral test facilities to produce new and relevant experimental data allowing to better characterize the physical behaviours and the performances of these systems for various thermo-hydraulic conditions. These test programmes are simulated by different codes acting at different scales, mainly system and CFD codes. New "system/CFD" coupling approaches are also considered to evaluate their potential to benefit both from the accuracy of CFD in regions where local 3D effects are dominant and system codes whose computational speed, robustness and general level of physical validation are particularly appreciated in industrial studies. In parallel, the project includes the study of single and two-phase natural circulation loops through a bibliographical study and the simulations of the PERSEO and HERO-2 experimental facilities. After a synthetic presentation of the project and its objectives, this article provides the reader with findings related to the physical analysis of the test results obtained on the PKL and PASI installations as well an overall evaluation of the capability of the different numerical tools to simulate passive systems.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.405-414
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• 2008

To better understand the physical processes that control the high-latitude lower thermospheric dynamics, we analyze the divergence and vorticity of the high-latitude neutral wind field in the lower thermosphere during the southern summertime for different IMF conditions. For this study the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (NCAR-TIEG CM) is used. The analysis of the large-scale vorticity and divergence provides basic understanding flow configurations to help elucidate the momentum sources that ulti-mately determine the total wind field in the lower polar thermosphere and provides insight into the relative strengths of the different sources of momentum responsible for driving winds. The mean neutral wind pattern in the high-latitude lower thermosphere is dominated by rotational flow, imparted primarily through the ion drag force, rather than by divergent flow, imparted primarily through Joule and solar heating. The difference vorticity, obtained by subtracting values with zero IMF from those with non-zero IMF, in the high-latitude lower thermosphere is much larger than the difference divergence for all IMF conditions, indicating that a larger response of the thermospheric wind system to enhancement in the momentum input generating the rotational motion with elevated IMF than the corresponding energy input generating the divergent motion. the difference vorticity in the high-latitude lower thermosphere depends on the direction of the IMF. The difference vorticity for negative and positive $B_y$ shows positive and negative, respectively, at higher magnetic latitudes than $-70^{\circ}$. For negative $B_z$, the difference vorticities have positive in the dusk sector and negative in the dawn sector. The difference vorticities for positive $B_z$ have opposite sign. Negative IMF $B_z$ has a stronger effect on the vorticity than does positive $B_z$.