Abstract
The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is ever-increasing and expected to reach about 600 ppmv some time during next century. Such an increase of $CO_2$ may cause a warming of the earth's surface of 1.5 to 4.5$^{\circ}C$, resulting in great changes in natural and agricultural ecosystems. The climatic scenario under doubled $CO_2$ projected by general circulation model of Goddard Institute for Space Studies(GISS) was adopted to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on agroclimatic resources, net primary productivity and rice productivity in Korea. The annual mean temperature was expected to rise by 3.5 to 4.$0^{\circ}C$ and the annual precipitation to vary by -5 to 20% as compared to current normal climate (1951 to 1980), resulting in the increase of possible duration of crop growth(days above 15$^{\circ}C$ in daily mean temperature) by 30 to 50 days and of effective accumulated temperature(EAT=∑Ti, Ti$\geq$1$0^{\circ}C$) by 1200 to 150$0^{\circ}C$. day which roughly corresponds to the shift of its isopleth northward by 300 to 400 km and by 600 to 700 m in altitude. The hydrological condition evaluated by radiative dryness index (RDI =Rn/ $\ell$P) is presumed to change slightly. The net primary productivity under the 2$\times$$CO_2$ climate was estimated to decrease by 3 to 4% when calculated without considering the photosynthesis stimulation due to $CO_2$ enrichment. Empirical crop-weather model was constructed for national rice yield prediction. The rice yields predicted by this model under 2 $\times$ $CO_2$ climatic scenario at the technological level of 1987 were lower by 34-43% than those under current normal climate. The parameters of MACROS, a dynamic simulation model from IRRI, were modified to simulate the growth and development of Korean rice cultivars under current and doubled $CO_2$ climatic condition. When simulated starting seedling emergence of May 10, the rice yield of Hwaseongbyeo(medium maturity) under 2 $\times$ $CO_2$ climate in Suwon showed 37% reduction compared to that under current normal climate. The yield reduction was ascribable mainly to the shortening of vegetative and ripening period due to accelerated development by higher temperature. Any simulated yields when shifted emergence date from April 10 to July 10 with Hwaseongbyeo (medium maturity) and Palgeum (late maturity) under 2 $\times$ $CO_2$ climate did not exceed the yield of Hwaseongbyeo simulated at seedling emergence on May 10 under current climate. The imaginary variety, having the same characteristics as those of Hwaseongbyeo except growth duration of 100 days from seedling emergence to heading, showed 4% increase in yield when simulated at seedling emergence on May 25 producing the highest yield. The simulation revealed that grain yields of rice increase to a greater extent under 2$\times$ $CO_2$-doubled condition than under current atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration as the plant type becomes more erect.
