• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.119-125
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• 2009

We predict the earthquake rate in Korea following Bayesian approach. We make a model that can utilize the data to predict other levels of earthquake. An event tree model which is a frequently used graphical tool in describing accident initiation and escalation to more severe accident is transformed into an influence diagram model. Prior distributions for earthquake occurrence rate and probabilities to escalating to more severe earthquakes are assumed and likelihood of number of earthquake in a given period of time is assessed. And then posterior distributions are obtained based on observed data. We find that the minor level of earthquake is increasing while major level of earthquake is less likely.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.101-116
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• 2012

Accident prediction models have been utilized to predict accident possibilities in existing or projected freeways and to evaluate programs or policies for improving safety. In this study, a traffic accident prediction model for freeways was developed for the above purposes. When selecting variables for the model, the highest priority was on the ease of both collecting data and applying them into the model. The dependent variable was set as the number of total accidents and the number of accidents including casualties in the unit of IC(or JCT). As a result, two models were developed; the overall accident model and the casualty-related accident model. The error structure adjusted to each model was the negative binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution, respectively. Among the two models, a more appropriate model was selected by statistical estimation. Major nine national freeways were selected and five-year dada of 2003~2007 were utilized. Explanatory variables should take on either a predictable value such as traffic volumes or a fixed value with respect to geometric conditions. As a result of the Maximum Likelihood estimation, significant variables of the overall accident model were found to be the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volume to the number of curved segments between ICs(or JCTs). For the casualty-related accident model, the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volumes had a significant impact on the accident. The likelihood ratio test was conducted to verify the spatial and temporal transferability for estimated parameters of each model. It was found that the overall accident model could be transferred only to the road with four or more than six lanes. On the other hand, the casualty-related accident model was transferrable to every road and every time period. In conclusion, the model developed in this study was able to be extended to various applications to establish future plans and evaluate policies.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2022.06a
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• pp.261-268
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• 2022

In road work zones, pedestrian workers' habituated inattention to warning alarms from construction vehicles can lead to fatal accidents. Previous studies have theorized that human factors such as personality traits may affect workers' inattentiveness to workplace hazards. However, there has been no study that directly examined how road construction workers' personality traits affect their attention to warning alarms within a work zone and the likelihood of engagement in a struck-by accident. This study examines how workers' sensation-seeking (especially boredom susceptibility) is related to inattention to warning alarms while performing a task in road work zones. An experiment with actual road construction workers was conducted using a virtual road construction environment. Workers' attention to repeatedly presented warning alarms was measured using eye-tracking sensors. In response to workers' frequent inattentive behaviors, a virtual accident was simulated. Results revealed a significant association between boredom susceptibility and workers' engagement in the virtual accident, a consequence of inattentiveness to warning alarms. The findings suggest that workers' personality traits predispose them to tune out warning alarms and become vulnerable to accidents in road work zones. The findings of this study can be used to develop targeted interventions aimed at preventing workers' inattention to repeatedly exposed workplace hazards, thereby contributing to reducing fatal accidents in road work zones.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.111-118
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• 2018

Korea is facing a surge in the aging population, showing that population aged 65 and above will be accounted for 42.5% of the total population in 2065 with the emphasis on the over-80 population consisting of 19.2%. In response to this abrupt change in population structure, the number of traffic fatality accident referring to older driver as aged 65+ years had been increasing from 605 fatalities in 2011 to 815 fatalities in 2015 resulting in increases in 34.7% in oppose to happening to decreases in 17.2% about non-older driver. With Logit analysis based on Newton-Raphson algorithm utilizing older driver's traffic fatality data for the 2011-2015 years, it was found that the likelihood of an accident resulting in a fatality for super older driver aged 80 years and above considerably increased compared to other older driver with aging classification: 2.24 times for violation of traffic lane, 2.04 times for violation of U-turn, 1.48 times for violation of safety distance, 1.35 times for violation of obstacle of passing; also average annual increase of traffic accident cost related to super older driver was fairly increased rather than other older driver groups. Hence, this study proposes that improving and amending transport safety system and Road Traffic Act for super older driver needs to be urgently in action about license management, safe driving education, etc. when considering the increase of over-80 population in the near future. Also, implementing a social agreement with all ages and social groups to apply with advanced driver assistance system for older driver groups will be able to become a critical factor to enhance safe driving over the face of the country.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.79-86
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• 2021

On the construction site, there exists frequently a high likelihood that a fire accident can lead to a large-scale disaster. In the previous studies, the diverse outcomes have been focused on the improvement of relative statutes and tried to realize the suppression and confrontation of the fire accidents. In this study, the limitations on the site were identified through prior research reviews, and the fire risk assessment checklist was proposed through the analysis of the massive accident cases. The checklist was divided into the prevention and minimization steps and developed into 16 categories of total risk factors. According to the results from the cases applied in this study, if the installation status is checked, such as removing combustibles, and broadcasting facilities for evacuation are installed, it is expected that the casualties will be minimized or zeroed. By developing a fire risk assessment checklist, this study provides the implications of the theoretical and realistic fire accident prevention, and supports the ways to minimize the damage resulted from the fire accidents on construction sites. In the further, deriving universe and common items about repeated occurrences of a work type will be needed as a subsequent research.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.267-275
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• 2017

Background: The mining industry is known worldwide for its highly risky and hazardous working environment. Technological advancement in ore extraction techniques for proliferation of production levels has caused further concern for safety in this industry. Research so far in the area of safety has revealed that the majority of incidents in hazardous industry take place because of human error, the control of which would enhance safety levels in working sites to a considerable extent. Methods: The present work focuses upon the analysis of human factors such as unsafe acts, preconditions for unsafe acts, unsafe leadership, and organizational influences. A modified human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS) was adopted and an accident predictive fuzzy reasoning approach (FRA)-based system was developed to predict the likelihood of accidents for manganese mines in India, using analysis of factors such as age, experience of worker, shift of work, etc. Results: The outcome of the analysis indicated that skill-based errors are most critical and require immediate attention for mitigation. The FRA-based accident prediction system developed gives an outcome as an indicative risk score associated with the identified accident-prone situation, based upon which a suitable plan for mitigation can be developed. Conclusion: Unsafe acts of the worker are the most critical human factors identified to be controlled on priority basis. A significant association of factors (namely age, experience of the worker, and shift of work) with unsafe acts performed by the operator is identified based upon which the FRA-based accident prediction model is proposed.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.25-36
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• 1992

A possible adverse effect on the likelihood of front-seat occupant fatalities from unbelted rear-seat occupants in frontal crashes is investigated using Fatal Accident Reporting System data. Passenger cars which sustained frontal damage and which did not roll over are included in this analysis. Of the frontally damaged cars, only cars containing a driver and a right-front passenger are selected. Then, from these cars, the following three cases are considered: a) left-rear occupant present, b) right-rear occupant present, and c) no one else in the car. Cars belonging to a) or b) contain only three occupants, and those belonging to the last case contain only two occupants. In addition, all occupants are unbelted. To estimate the influence of rear-seat occupants on front-seat occupant fatalities, relative risks of driver and right-front passenger fatalities are compared pairwise across these three cases. The adverse influence of unbelted rear-seat occupants on the likelihood of unbelted front-seat occupant fatalities in frontal crashes is estimated to be 7.9% ${\pm}$ 45%(the error limits indicate one standard error). In other words, front-seat occupant fatalities are increased 7.9% in frontal crashes due to the loadings from unbelted rear-seat occupants. This suggests that the usage of safety belts by rear-seat occupants not only may extend their own lives but also helps in reducing the fatalities of front-seat occupants seated in front of them.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2022.11a
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• pp.133-134
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• 2022

Recently, the criteria for assessing industrial accidents have been replaced by the mortality rate. It was found that the number of deaths from excavation work was the highest among construction machinery. The risk assessment is being conducted, however the industrial accident mortality rate has not decreased. Accordingly, this study aims to provide the basic for the create of a risk assessment model specialized in construction work at excavator. It provides absolute value from the risk model which is capable of delivery the probability of a disaster. In addition, we provide a relative risk model that compares the risk through scores between detailed works. The relative risk model is combined by likelihood and severity; the likelihood indicates the frequency of accidents and the severity indicates seriousness of fatal accidents. A variable that reflects the conditions of the construction site was added to the risk assessment model based on past disaster cases. And using the concepts of probability and average, the risk assessment process was quantified and used as an objective indicator. Therefore, the model is expected to reduce disasters by raising the awareness of disasters.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.1-8
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• 2019

Identifying behavioral errors of seafarers that have led to marine accidents is a basis for research into prevention or mitigation of marine accidents. The purpose of this study is to estimate the optimal probability distribution function needed to model behavioral errors of crew members into three behaviors (i.e., Skill-, Rule-, Knowledge-based). Through use of behavioral data obtained from previous accidents, we estimated the optimal probability distribution function for the three behavioral errors and verified the significance between the probability values derived from the probability distribution function. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) was applied to the probability distribution function estimation and variance analysis (ANOVA) used for the significance test. The obtained experimental results show that the probability distribution function with the smallest error can be estimated for each of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents. The statistical significance of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents calculated using the probability distribution function was observed. In addition, behavioral errors were also found to significantly affect marine accidents. The results of this study can be applied to predicting marine accidents caused by behavioral errors.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.95-106
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• 2005

Road accidents are considered as the result of a complex interplay between road, vehicle, environments, and human factors. Little study, however, has been carried out on the attributes of human factor compared to the road geometric conditions and traffic conditions. The previous researches focused on mainly both traffic and geometric conditions on specific location. Therefore, it's hard to explain phenomenon of the high traffic accident rates where road and traffic conditions are good. Because of these reasons, accident analysis has contributed on geometric improvement and has not contributed on traffic management such as selection of attention section, driver napping alert, etc. The freeway incident management is also associated with reliable prediction of incident occurrences on freeway sections. This paper presents a method for estimating the effect of trip length on freeway accident rate. A PAR (Potential Accident Ratio), the new concept of accident analysis, considering TLFDs (Trip Length Frequency Distributions) is suggested in this paper. This approach can help to strengthen freeway management and to reduce the likelihood of accidents.