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Domestic earthquake prediction using bayesian approach  

Yang, Hee-Joong (Department of Industrial Engineering, Cheong Ju University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science / v.11, no.4, 2009 , pp. 119-125 More about this Journal
Abstract
We predict the earthquake rate in Korea following Bayesian approach. We make a model that can utilize the data to predict other levels of earthquake. An event tree model which is a frequently used graphical tool in describing accident initiation and escalation to more severe accident is transformed into an influence diagram model. Prior distributions for earthquake occurrence rate and probabilities to escalating to more severe earthquakes are assumed and likelihood of number of earthquake in a given period of time is assessed. And then posterior distributions are obtained based on observed data. We find that the minor level of earthquake is increasing while major level of earthquake is less likely.
Keywords
지진;베이지안 예측;상호연관도;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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