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http://dx.doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2019.43.1.1

A Study on the Estimation of Optimal Probability Distribution Function for Seafarers' Behavior Error  

Park, Deuk-Jin (Graduate Course of Navigation System Engineering, Mokpo National Maritime University)
Yang, Hyeong-Seon (Division of Navigation Science, Mokpo National Maritime University)
Yim, Jeong-Bin (Division of Navigation Science, Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
Publication Information
Journal of Navigation and Port Research / v.43, no.1, 2019 , pp. 1-8 More about this Journal
Abstract
Identifying behavioral errors of seafarers that have led to marine accidents is a basis for research into prevention or mitigation of marine accidents. The purpose of this study is to estimate the optimal probability distribution function needed to model behavioral errors of crew members into three behaviors (i.e., Skill-, Rule-, Knowledge-based). Through use of behavioral data obtained from previous accidents, we estimated the optimal probability distribution function for the three behavioral errors and verified the significance between the probability values derived from the probability distribution function. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) was applied to the probability distribution function estimation and variance analysis (ANOVA) used for the significance test. The obtained experimental results show that the probability distribution function with the smallest error can be estimated for each of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents. The statistical significance of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents calculated using the probability distribution function was observed. In addition, behavioral errors were also found to significantly affect marine accidents. The results of this study can be applied to predicting marine accidents caused by behavioral errors.
Keywords
Marine Accident; Behavioral Error; Accident Prevention; Probability Distribution Function; Maximum Likelihood Estimation; Analysis of Variance;
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