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Financial Condition and the Determinants of Credit Ratings in Korean Small and Medium-Sized Business (중소상공인의 금융현황과 신용등급의 결정요인 관련 연구)

  • Kang, Hyoung-Goo;Binh, Ki Beom;Lee, Hong-Kyun;Koo, Bonha
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.135-154
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    • 2020
  • This paper analyzes the 5,521 samples of the small and medium-sized businesses(SMBs) obtained from the Korea Credit Guarantee Fund. From January 2014 to September 2019, 85% of the SMBs have 5 or fewer full-time employees. The proportion of SMBs is overwhelmed by the elderly men, and most founders are the CEO. Also, about 87% of the workplace types are rented, while 64% of the CEO's residence types are owner-occupation. 47% of the financial grade score is less than 10 points out of 100 and 80% of SMBs have less than 200 million won of the loan guarantee. In particular, the total guarantee loan amount or the days of net guarantee have significantly positive relations with the working period of the CEO in the same industry, the number of employees, the operation period of SMBs, and the corporate business type. In the case of the financial grading score which has the highest weight in overall credit rating gets higher with the higher number of employees, the longer the operation period, and the corporate business type. However, the quantified non-financial grading score has no significant relationship with other explanatory variables, except for the corporate business type. This implies that a non-financial grade score is measured by other determinants that are not observed by the Korea credit guarantee fund. The pure non-financial grade score has positive relations with the working period of the CEO. Overall, this paper would help Korean SMBs upgrade their credit ratings and expand the money supply when there is no standardized credit rating model or no publicly available evaluation criteria for SMBs. We expect this paper provides important insights for further research and policy-makers for SMBs. In particular, to address the financial needs of thin-filers such as SMBs, technology-based financial services (TechFin) would use alternative data to evaluate the financial capabilities of thin-filers and to develop new financial services.

Ventilation at Supra-Optimal Temperature Leading High Relative Humidity Controls Powdery Mildew, Silverleaf Whitefly, Mite and Inhibits the Flowering of Korean Melon in a Greenhouse Cultivation (참외 시설 재배 시 고온에서의 환기 처리에 의한 상대습도 상승과 흰가루병, 담배가루이, 응애 방제 및 개화 억제)

  • Seo, Tae Cheol;Kim, Jin Hyun;Kim, Seung Yu;Cho, Myeong Whan;Choi, Man Kwon;Ryu, Hee Ryong;Shin, Hyun Ho;Lee, Choung Keun
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2022
  • This study was conducted to investigate the effect of ventilation at high temperature on the control of powdery mildew, silverleaf whitefly two-spotted spider mite occurred at Korean melon cultivation greenhouse, and on leaf rolling and flowering of the plant in summer season. 'Alchanggul' grafted onto 'Hidden Power' rootstock was planted on soil bed with the distance of 40 cm. Three ventilation temperatures of 45℃, 40℃, and 35℃ as set points were compared. Ventilation treatment was done by control of side window operation from 18th June to 13th July when silverleaf whitefly, mite, and powdery mildew were occurred in all greenhouses. The temperature inside greenhouse was increased up to the set temperature point on sunny days and maintained for about 9 hours with high relative humidity at 45℃ condition. The differences of day maximum air temperature and day minimum RH were the highest at 45℃ treatment. After 11 days of treatments, the damage by powdery mildew and two-spotted spider mite was almost recovered at 45℃ treatment but not at 40 and 35℃. The population of silverleaf whitefly and two-spotted spider mite were significantly decreased at 45℃ treatment at 14 days after treatment, while powdery mildew symptom was not significantly decreased. Leaf rolling was observed at high temperature but not severe at 45℃ treatment. After 26 days of treatments, female flowers did not bloom at all at 45℃ treatment, and the number of male flowers was 1.2 among 15 nodes of newly grown shoots. As the result, it indicates that ventilation at the high temperature of 45℃ for about 2 to 3 weeks can be an applicable method to control above mentioned pests and disease, and to recover the vegetative growth of Korean melon by reducing flowering of the plant.

Assessment of the Position of the Mandibular Foramen and Mandibular Lingula in Children and Adolescents using CBCT (소아 청소년에서 하악공 및 하악소설의 위치에 대한 CBCT 분석)

  • Lee, Jihye;Choi, Namki;Kim, Byunggee;Kim, Seonmi
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.64-76
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the position of the mandibular foramen and location and morphological characteristics of the mandibular lingula using Cone-Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT). Mandibular CBCT images of children aged 6 - 16 years were collected. A total of 180 patients were divided into 3 groups, 6 - 7, 10 - 11 and 15 - 16 years, with 30 male and female patients per group. Either side of the ramus was analyzed. The shortest distances from the anterior, posterior, superior and inferior border of the ramus to the mandibular lingula were measured. The shortest distance between the mandibular lingula and the mandibular foramen was also measured. The vertical distance from the mandibular lingula and the mandibular foramen to the occlusal plane was measured. The shapes of the mandibular lingula was classified into 4 types according to the criteria. The distances of the mandibular lingula from the anteroposterior and vertical reference points of the ramus increased in all directions with age. The distance between the mandibular lingula and the mandibular foramen also increased with age. The location of the mandibular lingula and the mandibular foramen in relation to the occlusal plane moved upwards with age. The most common shape of the mandibular lingula was triangular, followed by nodular, truncated and assimilated, and there was no difference in the shape according to age. It is recommended that the horizontal insertion point of the anesthesia from the anterior border of the ramus increased to 17 mm, 18 mm, and 19 mm according to the age groups. It is also suggested that the vertical insertion point increased by 2 - 3 mm, 5 - 6 mm and 9 - 10 mm above the occlusal plane according to the age groups.

Effects of Telephone Hotline Counseling Program on Stroke Care (뇌졸중 환자에 적용한 핫라인 전화상담 프로그램의 효과)

  • Baik Kyun Kim;Dong-Wan Kang;Do Yeon Kim;Jung Hyun Park;Ji-Seok Woo;Young-Hee Kim;Hyun-Sook Kim;Min-Joo Moon;Jeong-Yoon Lee;Hyung Seok Guk;Nakhoon Kim;Sang-Won Choi;Hakyeu Ahn;Bosco Seong Kyu Yang;Jun Yup Kim;Jihoon Kang;Moon-Ku Han;Hee-Joon Bae;Beom Joon Kim
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.185-193
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    • 2023
  • Background: This study focuses on the establishment and operation of a stroke patient hotline program to help patients and their caregivers determine when acute neurological changes require emergency attention. Method: The stroke hotline was established at the Gyeonggi Regional Cerebrovascular Center, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, in June 2016. Patients diagnosed with stroke during admission or in outpatient clinics were registered and provided with stroke education. Consulting nurses managed hotline calls and made decisions about outpatient schedules or emergency room referrals, consulting physicians when necessary. The study analyzed consultation records from June 2016 to December 2020, assessing consultation volumes and types. Outcomes and hotline satisfaction were also evaluated. Results: Over this period, 6,851 patients were registered, with 1,173 patients (18%) undergoing 3,356 hotline consultations. The average monthly consultation volume increased from 29.2 cases in 2016 to 92.3 cases in 2020. Common consultation types included stroke symptoms (22.3%), blood pressure/glucose inquiries (12.8%), and surgery/procedure questions (12.6%). Unexpected outpatient visits decreased from 103 cases before the hotline to 81 cases after. Among the 2,244 consultations between January 2019 and December 2020, 9.6% were recommended hospital visits, with two cases requiring intra-arterial thrombectomy. Patient satisfaction ratings of 9-10 points increased from 64% in 2019 to 69% in 2020. Conclusion: The stroke hotline program effectively reduced unexpected outpatient visits and achieved high patient satisfaction. Expanding the program could enhance the management of stroke-related neurological symptoms and minimize unnecessary healthcare resource utilization.

Study on the consumption practices and Importance-Satisfaction Analysis of meal-kit selection attributes among adults in their 20s and 30s (20-30대 성인의 밀키트 소비 실태와 밀키트 선택속성에 대한 중요도-만족도 분석)

  • Se-Eun Kim;Hyun-Joo Bae
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.315-329
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study examined the meal-kit consumption practices of adults in their 20s and 30s and analyzed the properties that should be given priority for improvement among the selection attributes to improve the quality of meal-kits. Methods: Statistical analyses were conducted using the SPSS program (ver. 28.0) for χ2-test, t-test, one-way analysis of variance, Duncan's multiple range test, factor analysis, and Importance-Satisfaction Analysis (ISA). Results: Of the 249 subjects surveyed, 85.5% had some experience of purchasing meal-kits, with significantly more females than males (p < 0.01), significantly more married people than single people (p < 0.05), significantly more employed people than unemployed people (p < 0.05). Meal-kits were purchased most frequently for meals (60.6%), from discount stores or supermarkets (44.6%), and priced between 10,000 won and 20,000 won per person (46.9%). The overall satisfaction with meal-kits was 4.1 out of 5.0 points. The frequency of purchases was Korean soup dishes (69.5%), Korean main dishes (47.4%), and Korean street snacks (46.9%). Factor analysis of the meal-kit selection attributes revealed, 4 factors: 'quality of food,' 'packaging and diversity,' 'quality of meal-kit,' and 'convenience and price.' Compared to single-person households, multi-person households placed significantly higher importance on the 'quality of food,' 'packaging and diversity,' and 'quality of meal-kit.' The factor, 'packaging and diversity' were significantly higher in the importance evaluation scores for females (p < 0.01), married people (p < 0.05), and people in their 30s (p < 0.05) among meal-kit consumers. According to the ISA results, a critical aspect that meal-kit manufacturers or sellers should strengthen is 'price.' Conclusion: Meal-kit products will need to be developed for various purposes that offer high value for money that can satisfy the consumers' needs to improve the satisfaction of meal-kit consumers.

A study of the income inequality of the aged in OECD 10 countries - Focusing on the life course perspective (OECD 10개국 노인의 소득불평등에 관한 연구 -생애주기관점을 중심으로-)

  • Ji, Eun Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.333-370
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    • 2011
  • This study views the aged inequalities according to the inequality hypothesis of the life course perspective in OECD 10 countries. Focusing on educational level which is early social status and welfare state regime which is social structure factors of inequality, this study analyzes income inequality for the aged who have transformed into old age period from non-aged period. The analysis is based on the data SHARE of Europe and HRS of USA. The main results of this study are summarized in four points. First, the income inequality is quite high by welfare system and the educational level. Second, the income inequality is somewhat reduced in case the people move from the period of non-aged to the period of aged. However, gini coefficient is still high(0.475). Considering welfare state regimes, although the income inequality is high in conservative regime of non-aged period, this would be higher in aged period. This result supports cumulative advantages/disadvantages hypothesis. The liberal regime remains high income inequality which supports the theoretical argument of status maintenance. Social democratic regime provides evidence to offer some support for the status leveling hypothesis. In there, income inequality is lower in aged period even though income inequality of non-aged period is low. Third, the cumulative advantages/disadvantages of disposable income according to educational level are strengthened and heterogeneity is grown in case people transition from the late period of non-aged to aged period. But public pension has been more equally distributed than gross income. Fourth, seeing welfare state regimes, public pension of aged-period is more inequally distributed than that of non-aged period in liberal and conservative regime. Specially in conservative regime, inequality of gross income is very high and public pension is also inequally distribute So this might show that the social security system strengthens the cumulative advantages/disadvantages. However, in the social democratic regime, public pension is more equally distributed than gross income and it could be much more equally distributed in aged period, which can support the status leveling hypothesis.

A Study on Jeong Su-yeong's Handscroll of a Sightseeing Trip to the Hangang and Imjingang Rivers through the Lens of Boating and Mountain Outings (선유(船遊)와 유산(遊山)으로 본 정수영(鄭遂榮)의 《한임강유람도권》 고찰)

  • Hahn, Sangyun
    • MISULJARYO - National Museum of Korea Art Journal
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    • v.96
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    • pp.89-122
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, I argue that the Handscroll of a Sightseeing Trip to the Hangang and Imjingang Rivers by Jeong Su-yeong (1743~1831, pseudonym: Jiwujae) is a record of his private journeys to several places on the outskirts of Hanyang (present-day Seoul) and that it successfully embodies the painter's subjective perspective while boating on these rivers and going on outings to nearby mountains. Around 1796, Jeong Su-yeong traveled to different places and documented his travels in this 16-meter-long handscroll. Several leaves of paper, each of which depicts a separate landscape, are pieced together to create this long handscroll. This indicates that the Handscroll of a Sightseeing Trip to the Hangang and Imjingang Rivers reflected the painter's personal subjective experiences as he went along his journey rather than simply depicts travel destinations. The Handscroll of a Sightseeing Trip to the Hangang and Imjingang Rivers features two types of travel: boating and mountain outings on foot. Traveling by boat takes up a large portion of the handscroll, which illustrates the channels of the Hangang and Imjingang Rivers. Mountain outings correspond to the sections describing the regions around Bukhansan, Gwanaksan, and Dobongsan Mountains. Jeong Su-yeong traveled to this wide span of places not just once, but several times. The fact that the Hangang River system are not presented in accordance with their actual locations shows that they were illustrated at different points. After visiting the riversides of the Hangang and Namhangang Rivers twice, Jeong Su-yeong delineated them in fourteen scenes. Among them, the first eight illustrate Jeong's initial trip by boat, while the other six scenes are vistas from his second trip. These fourteen scenes occupy half of this handscroll, indicating that the regions near the Hangang River are painted most frequently. The scenes of Jeong Su-yeong's first boating trip to the system of the Hangang River portray the landscapes that he personally witnessed rather than famous scenes. Some of the eight scenic views of Yeoju, including Yongmunsan Mountain, Cheongsimru Pavilion, and Silleuksa Temple, are included in this handscroll. However, Jeong noted spots that were not often painted and depicted them using an eye-level perspective uncommon for illustrating famous scenic locations. The scenes of Jeong's second boating trip include his friend's villa and a meeting with companions. Moreover, Cheongsimru Pavilion and Silleuksa Temple, which are depicted in the first boating trip, are illustrated again from different perspectives and in unique compositions. Jeong Su-yeong examined the same locations several times from different angles. A sense of realism is demonstrated in the scenes of Jeong's first and second boating trips to the channels of the Hangang River, which depict actual roads. Furthermore, viewers can easily follow the level gaze of Jeong from the boat. The scenes depicting the Imjingang River begin from spots near the Yeongpyeongcheon and Hantangang Rivers and end with places along the waterways of the Imjingang River. Here, diverse perspectives were applied, which is characteristic of Imjingang River scenes. Jeong Su-yeong employed a bird's-eye perspective to illustrate the flow of a waterway starting from the Yeongpyeongcheon River. He also used an eye-level perspective to highlight the rocks of Baegundam Pool. Thus, depending on what he wished to emphasize, Jeong applied different perspectives. Hwajeogyeon Pond located by the Hantangang River is illustrated from a bird's-eye perspective to present a panoramic view of the surroundings and rocks. Similarly, the scenery around Uhwajeong Pavilion by the Imjingang River are depicted from the same perspective. A worm's-eye view was selected for Samseongdae Cliff in Tosangun in the upper regions of the Imjingang River and for Nakhwaam Rock. The scenes of Jeong Su-yeong's mountain outings include pavilions and small temple mainly. In the case of Jaeganjeong Pavilion on Bukhansan Mountain, its actual location remains unidentified since the pavilion did not lead to the route of the boating trip to the system of the Hangang River and was separately depicted from other trips to the mountains. I speculate that Jaeganjeong Pavilion refers to a pavilion either in one of the nine valleys in Wooyi-dong at the foot of Bukhansan Mountain or in Songajang Villa. Since these two pavilions are situated in the valleys of Bukhansan Mountain, their descriptions in written texts are similar. As for Gwanaksan Mountain, Chwihyangjeong and Ilganjeong Pavilions as well as Geomjisan Mountain in the Bukhansan Mountain range are depicted. Ilganjeong Pavilion was a well-known site on Gwanaksan that belonged to Shin Wi. In this handscroll, however, Jeong Su-yeong recorded objective geographic information on the pavilion rather than relating it to Shin Wi. "Chwihyangjeong Pavilion" is presented within the walls, while "Geomjisan Mountain" is illustrated outside the walls. Handscroll of a Sightseeing Trip to the Hangang and Imjingang Rivers also includes two small temples, Mangwolam and Okcheonam, on Dobongsan Mountain. The actual locations of these are unknown today. Nevertheless, Gungojip (Anthology of Gungo) by Yim Cheonsang relates that they were sited on Dobongsan Mountain. Compared to other painters who stressed Dobong Seowon (a private Confucian academy) and Manjangbong Peak when depicting Dobongsan Mountain, Jeong Su-yeong highlighted these two small temples. Jeong placed Yeongsanjeon Hall and Cheonbong Stele in "Mangwolam small temple" and Daeungjeon Hall in front of "Okcheonam small temple." In addition to the buildings of the small temple, Jeong drew the peaks of Dobongsan Mountain without inscribing their names, which indicates that he intended the Dobongsan peaks as a background for the scenery. The Handscroll of a Sightseeing Trip to the Hangang and Imjingang Rivers is of great significance in that it embodies Jeong Su-yeong's personal perceptions of scenic spots on the outskirts of Hanyang and records his trips to these places.

The Consideration of nuclear medicine technologist's occupational dose from patient who are undergoing 18F-FDG Whole body PET/CT : Aspect of specific characteristic of patient and contact time with patient (18F-FDG Whole Body PET/CT 수검자의 거리별 선량 변화에 따른 방사선 작업종사자의 유효선량 고찰: 환자 고유특성 및 응대시간 측면)

  • Kim, Sunghwan;Ryu, Jaekwang;Ko, Hyunsoo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 2018
  • Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the external dose rates of $^{18}F-FDG$ Whole Body PET/CT patients by distance, and to identify the main factors that contribute to the reduction of radiation dose by checking the cumulative doses of nuclear medicine technologist(NMT). Materials and Methods After completion of the $^{18}F-FDG$ Whole Body PET/CT scan($75.4{\pm}3.3min$), the external dose rates of 106 patients were measured at a distance of 0, 10, 30, 50, and 100 cm from the chest. Gender, age, BMI(Body Mass Index), fasting time, diabetes mellitus, radiopharmaceutical injection information, creatine value were collected to analyze individual factors that could affect external dose rates from a patient's perspective. From the perspective of NMT, personal pocket dosimeters were worn on the chest to record accumulated dose of NMT who performed the injection task($T_1$, $T_2$ and $T_3$) and scan task($T_4$, $T_5$ and $T_6$). In addition, patient contact time with NMT was measured and analyzed. Results External dose rates from the patient for each distance were calculated as $246.9{\pm}37.6$, $129.9{\pm}16.7$, $61.2{\pm}9.1$, $34.4{\pm}5.9$, and $13.1{\pm}2.4{\mu}Sv/hr$ respectively. On the patient's aspect, there was a significant difference in the proximity of gender, BMI, Injection dose and creatine value, but the difference decreased as the distance increased. In case of dialysis patient, external dose rates for each distance were exceptionally higher than other patients. On the NMT aspect, the doses received from patients were 0.70, 1.09, $0.55{\mu}Sv/person$ for performing the injection task($T_1$, $T_2$, and $T_3$), and were 1.25, 0.82, $1.23{\mu}Sv/person$ for performing the scan task($T_4$, $T_5$, $T_6$). Conclusion we found that maintaining proper distance with patient and reducing contact time with patient had a significant effect on accumulated doses. Considering those points, efforts such as sufficient water intake and encourage of urination, maintaining the proper distance between the NMT and the patient(at least 100 cm), and reducing the contact time should be done for reducing dose rates not only patient but also NMT.

The Health Behavior Patterns of Some Rural Residents in Korea and Their Association with Health Status and Health Management Practice (일부 농촌주민의 건강행위유형과 건강상태 및 건강관련실태와의 관련성)

  • Kim, Young-Gab;Kang, Myung-Guen;Ryu, So-Yeon;Kim, Ki-Soon;Kang, Sung-Deuk
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.43-63
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    • 2004
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to classify the patterns of health behaviors of some rural residents in Korea by sub-grouping them into populations with similar patterns of diet quality, physical activity, alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking, and then to investigate the relationship between these health behavior patterns and health status or health management of them. Methods: The study subjects were 722 rural residents above 20 years old on a typical rural district in Korea, and the data used in this study was from the survey data for health planning of a health center. Study questionnaire for this survey was developed from modifying the questionnaire for 'National Nutrition and Health Study' conducted in 1998. To classify health behavior patterns, cluster analysis was conducted. And to test the association of health behavior patterns with health status or health management, multiple logistic regression analysis were conducted. Results: The results and their implications of this study were as follows: 1. We identified six health behavior typologies : 67.8% of the sample had a good diet quality but showed sedentary activity level(good diet lifestyle) and 10.9% had heavy smoking behavior(smoking lifestyle). Individuals included in fitness lifestyle cluster(6.2%) had high physical activity level and those in drinking life style(2.6%) had had mainly large amount of alcohol. Zero point six percent of sample were included in hedonic lifestyle cluster, who showed poor health behaviors in all. Those included in passive lifestyle(11.9%) had no active health promoting activities but tended to avoid risk taking health behavior such as cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking. 2. As a result of logistic regression analysis, to compare with the individuals in good diet lifestyle, the prevalence of chronic diseases of those in fitness lifestyle showed higher and that of those in smoking lifestyle, drinking lifestyle, hedonic lifestyle, passive lifestyle showed lower than them, retrospectively. 3. Adjusting with general characteristics and health status, to compare with the individuals in good diet lifestyle, the proportion of those who had good health management practices in fitness lifestyle was higher, and the proportion of those who had health check in past 2 years was lower than them, retrospectively. Conclusions: There were some differences in health behavior patterns between rural population and national population, which influenced significantly on health status and health management practice of them. We suggested that the health promotion program for them be developed with considering these points.

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Forecasting Substitution and Competition among Previous and New products using Choice-based Diffusion Model with Switching Cost: Focusing on Substitution and Competition among Previous and New Fixed Charged Broadcasting Services (전환 비용이 반영된 선택 기반 확산 모형을 통한 신.구 상품간 대체 및 경쟁 예측: 신.구 유료 방송서비스간 대체 및 경쟁 사례를 중심으로)

  • Koh, Dae-Young;Hwang, Jun-Seok;Oh, Hyun-Seok;Lee, Jong-Su
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.223-252
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    • 2008
  • In this study, we attempt to propose a choice-based diffusion model with switching cost, which can be used to forecast the dynamic substitution and competition among previous and new products at both individual-level and aggregate level, especially when market data for new products is insufficient. Additionally, we apply the proposed model to the empirical case of substitution and competition among Analog Cable TV that represents previous fixed charged broadcasting service and Digital Cable TV and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) that are new ones, verify the validities of our proposed model, and finally derive related empirical implications. For empirical application, we obtained data from survey conducted as follows. Survey was administered by Dongseo Research to 1,000 adults aging from 20 to 60 living in Seoul, Korea, in May of 2007, under the title of 'Demand analysis of next generation fixed interactive broadcasting services'. Conjoint survey modified as follows, was used. First, as the traditional approach in conjoint analysis, we extracted 16 hypothetical alternative cards from the orthogonal design using important attributes and levels of next generation interactive broadcasting services which were determined by previous literature review and experts' comments. Again, we divided 16 conjoint cards into 4 groups, and thus composed 4 choice sets with 4 alternatives each. Therefore, each respondent faces 4 different hypothetical choice situations. In addition to this, we added two ways of modification. First, we asked the respondents to include the status-quo broadcasting services they subscribe to, as another alternative in each choice set. As a result, respondents choose the most preferred alternative among 5 alternatives consisting of 1 alternative with current subscription and 4 hypothetical alternatives in 4 choice sets. Modification of traditional conjoint survey in this way enabled us to estimate the factors related to switching cost or switching threshold in addition to the effects of attributes. Also, by using both revealed preference data(1 alternative with current subscription) and stated preference data (4 hypothetical alternatives), additional advantages in terms of the estimation properties and more conservative and realistic forecast, can be achieved. Second, we asked the respondents to choose the most preferred alternative while considering their expected adoption timing or switching timing. Respondents are asked to report their expected adoption or switching timing among 14 half-year points after the introduction of next generation broadcasting services. As a result, for each respondent, 14 observations with 5 alternatives for each period, are obtained, which results in panel-type data. Finally, this panel-type data consisting of $4{\ast}14{\ast}1000=56000$observations is used for estimation of the individual-level consumer adoption model. From the results obtained by empirical application, in case of forecasting the demand of new products without considering existence of previous product(s) and(or) switching cost factors, it is found that overestimated speed of diffusion at introductory stage or distorted predictions can be obtained, and as such, validities of our proposed model in which both existence of previous products and switching cost factors are properly considered, are verified. Also, it is found that proposed model can produce flexible patterns of market evolution depending on the degree of the effects of consumer preferences for the attributes of the alternatives on individual-level state transition, rather than following S-shaped curve assumed a priori. Empirically, it is found that in various scenarios with diverse combinations of prices, IPTV is more likely to take advantageous positions over Digital Cable TV in obtaining subscribers. Meanwhile, despite inferiorities in many technological attributes, Analog Cable TV, which is regarded as previous product in our analysis, is likely to be substituted by new services gradually rather than abruptly thanks to the advantage in low service charge and existence of high switching cost in fixed charged broadcasting service market.

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