• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 2012

Predictions of wind speed for six different near-shore sites were made using the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) wind data. The distances between the NCAR sites and prediction sites were varied between 40km and 150km. A well-known wind energy prediction program, WindPRO, was used. The prediction results were compared with the measured data from the AWS(Automated Weather Stations). Although the NCAR wind data were located far away from the AWS sites, the prediction errors were within 9% for all the cases. In terms of sector-wise wind energy distributions, the predictions were fairly close to the measurements, and the error in predicting main wind direction was less than $30^{\circ}$. This proves that the NCAR wind data are very useful in roughly estimating wind energy in offshore or near-shore sites where offshore wind farm might be constructed in Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.46-53
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• 2010

In this paper the feasibility of wind power forecasting from MOS(Model Output Statistics) was evaluated at Gosan area in Jeju during February to Octoberin 2008. The observed wind data from wind turbine was compared with 24 hours and 48 hours forecasting wind data from MOS predicting. Coefficient of determination of measured wind speed from wind turbine and 24 hours forecasting from MOS was around 0.53 and 48 hours was around 0.30. These determination factors were increased to 0.65 from 0.53 and 0.35 from 0.30, respectively, when it comes to the prevailing wind direction($300^{\circ}\sim60^{\circ}$). Wind power forecasting ratio in 24 hours of MOS showed a value of 0.81 within 70% confidence interval and it also showed 0.65 in 80% confidence interval. It is suggested that the additional study of weather conditions be carried out when large error happened in MOS forecasting.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.277-282
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• 2012

When wind speed exceeds a certain threshold, daily minimum temperature does not drop as predicted by the geospatial model in a cold pooling catchment. A linear regression equation was derived to explain the warming effect of wind speed on daily minimum temperature by analyzing observations at a low lying location within an enclosed catchment. The equation, Y=2X+0.4 ($R^2$=0.76) where Y stands for the warming ($^{\circ}C$) and X for the mean horizontal wind speed (m/s) at 2m height, was combined to an existing model to predict daily minimum temperature across an enclosed catchment on cold pooling days. The adjusted model was applied to 3 locations submerged in a cold air pool to predict daily minimum temperature on 25 cold pooling days with the input of simulated wind speed at each location. Results showed that bias (mean error) was reduced from -1.33 to -0.37 and estimation error (RMSE) from 1.72 to 1.20, respectively, in comparison with those from the unadjusted model.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.397-412
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• 2006

This paper presents the wind excited acceleration responses of a 50 m guyed mast under the action of Typhoon Dujuan. The response of the structure is reconstructed from using a full finite element model and an equivalent beam-column model. The wind load is modelled based on the measured wind speed and recommendations for high-rise structures. The nonlinear time response analysis is conducted using the Newton Raphson iteration procedure. Comparative studies on the measured and computed frequencies and acceleration responses show that the torsional vibration of the structure is significant particularly in the higher vibration modes after the first few bending modes. The equivalent model, in general, gives less accurate amplitude predictions than the full model because of the omission of torsional stiffness of the mast in the vibration analysis, but the root-mean-square value is close to the measured value in general with an error of less than 10%.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.1-10
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• 2013

Case studies are made to investigate the relationship between the accuracy of energy production estimation and project feasibility indicators such as rate of return on equity (ROE) and debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) for three wind farm projects. It is found out that 1% improvement in the accuracy of energy production estimation may enhance the ROE by more than 0.5% in the case of P95, thanks to improved financing terms. AHP survey shows that MCP correlation of measured in situ wind data with long term wind speed distribution and hands-on experiences of flow analysis are more important than other factors for more precise annual energy production estimation.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.17-41
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• 2016

To address the uncertainty of the flight trajectories caused by the turbulence and gustiness of the wind field over the roof and in the wake of a building, a 3-D probabilistic trajectory model of flat-type wind-borne debris is developed in this study. The core of this methodology is a 6 degree-of-freedom deterministic model, derived from the governing equations of motion of the debris, and a Monte Carlo simulation engine used to account for the uncertainty resulting from vertical and lateral gust wind velocity components. The influence of several parameters, including initial wind speed, time step, gust sampling frequency, number of Monte Carlo simulations, and the extreme gust factor, on the accuracy of the proposed model is examined. For the purpose of validation and calibration, the simulated results from the 3-D probabilistic trajectory model are compared against the available wind tunnel test data. Results show that the maximum relative error between the simulated and wind tunnel test results of the average longitudinal position is about 20%, implying that the probabilistic model provides a reliable and effective means to predict the 3-D flight of the plate-type wind-borne debris.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.1199-1211
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• 2014

The momentum flux and the sensible heat flux were measured with the scintillometers and ultrasonic anemometers at 6 sites of which surface characteristics like roughness length and zero-displacement are different each other. We estimated the momentum flux and the sensible heat flux based on the bulk transfer method with the drag coefficient and the heat transfer coefficient calculated from the temperature and wind speed at two heights. The variation of bulk transfer coefficients showed a remarkable difference depending on the atmospheric stability which is less influenced by the zero-displacement than the roughness length. The estimated sensible heat fluxes were in good agreement with those measured at 3 m, showing 23.7 $Wm^{-2}$ of the root mean square error that is less than 10% of its maximum. Since the estimated momentum flux is not only effected by drag coefficient but also by wind speed square, the determination of wind speed in the bulk transfer method is critical.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.1373-1383
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• 2016

The wind energy industry and wind power generation have increased; consequently, the stable supply of the wind power has become an important issue. It is important to accurately predict the wind power with short-term basis in order to make a reliable planning for the power supply and demand of wind power. In this paper, we first analyzed the speed, power and the directions of the wind. The neural network and the time series models (ARMA, ARMAX, ARMA-GARCH, Holt Winters) for wind power generation forecasting were compared based on mean absolute error (MAE). For one to three hour-ahead forecast, ARMA-GARCH model was outperformed, and the neural network method showed a better performance in the six hour-ahead forecast.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.59-73
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• 2020

Wind fragility analysis (WFA) of concrete chimney is often executed disregarding temperature effects. But combined wind and temperature effect is the most critical limit state to define the safety of a chimney. Hence, in this study, WFA of a 70 m tall RC chimney for combined wind and temperature effects is explored. The wind force time-history is generated by spectral representation method. The safety of chimney is assessed considering limit states of stress failure in concrete and steel. A moving-least-squares method based dual response surface method (DRSM) procedure is proposed in WFA to alleviate huge computational time requirement by the conventional direct Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach. The DRSM captures the record-to-record variation of wind force time-histories and uncertainty in system parameters. The proposed DRSM approach yields fragility curves which are in close conformity with the most accurate direct MCS approach within substantially less computational time. In this regard, the error by the single-level RSM and least-squares method based DRSM can be easily noted. The WFA results indicate that over temperature difference of 150℃, the temperature stress is so pronounced that the probability of failure is very high even at 30 m/s wind speed. However, below 100℃, wind governs the design.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.735-753
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• 2013

The wind load is always the dominant load of cooling tower due to its large size, complex geometry and thin-wall structure. At present, when computing the wind-induced response of the large-scale cooling tower, the wind pressure distribution is obtained based on code regulations, wind tunnel test or computational fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis, and then is imposed on the tower structure. However, such method fails to consider the change of the wind load with the deformation of cooling tower, which may result in error of the wind load. In this paper, the analysis of the large cooling tower based on the iterative method for wind pressure is studied, in which the advantages of CFD and finite element method (FEM) are combined in order to improve the accuracy. The comparative study of the results obtained from the code regulations and iterative method is conducted. The results show that with the increase of the mean wind speed, the difference between the methods becomes bigger. On the other hand, based on the design of experiment (DOE), an approximate model is built for the optimal design of the large-scale cooling tower by a two-level optimization strategy, which makes use of code-based design method and the proposed iterative method. The results of the numerical example demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method.