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Feasibility Study on Wind Power Forecasting Using MOS Forecasting Result of KMA  

Kim, Kyoung-Bo (Korea Meteorological Administration)
Park, Yun-Ho (Korea Meteorological Administration)
Park, Jeong-Keun (Ecobrain Co, Ltd)
Ko, Kyung-Nam (Test and Evaluation Research Center for Clean Energy Development, Cheju National University)
Huh, Jong-Chul (Faculty of Mechanical & System Engineering, Cheju National University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society / v.30, no.2, 2010 , pp. 46-53 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this paper the feasibility of wind power forecasting from MOS(Model Output Statistics) was evaluated at Gosan area in Jeju during February to Octoberin 2008. The observed wind data from wind turbine was compared with 24 hours and 48 hours forecasting wind data from MOS predicting. Coefficient of determination of measured wind speed from wind turbine and 24 hours forecasting from MOS was around 0.53 and 48 hours was around 0.30. These determination factors were increased to 0.65 from 0.53 and 0.35 from 0.30, respectively, when it comes to the prevailing wind direction($300^{\circ}\sim60^{\circ}$). Wind power forecasting ratio in 24 hours of MOS showed a value of 0.81 within 70% confidence interval and it also showed 0.65 in 80% confidence interval. It is suggested that the additional study of weather conditions be carried out when large error happened in MOS forecasting.
Keywords
Wind Power; Wind Data; Wind Power Forecasting; MOS(Model Output Statistics);
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