• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.32-44
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• 1987

장기간(長期間)의 극심(劇甚)한 불황(不況)의 여파(餘波)로 사양화(斜陽化)의 길에 접어든 합판산업(合板産業) 부양(浮揚)을 위(爲)해서는 장기적(長期的)인 안목(眼目)의 합판수요정책(合板需要政策)이 절실(切實)히 요망(要望)되고 있는 실정(實情)에 비추어 본(本) 연구(硏究)에서는 이에 필요(必要)한 기초자료(基礎資料)를 제공하고자 1970~1985년(年)까지 16년간(年間)의 표본자료를 토대로 하여 다음과 같은 결론(結論)을 얻었다. 1) 국민(國民) 총생산(總生産)(GNP), 합판(合板)의 실질도매물가지수(實質都賣物價指數)(PWI) 및 건설자재(建設資材)의 실질도매물가지수(實質都賣物價指數)(CWI)를 설명변수(說明變數)(독립변수(獨立變數))로 합판(合板)의 국내수요량(國內需要量)(DDP)을 피설명변수(被說明變數)(종속변수(從屬變數))로 하는 합판수요(合板需要)의 예측모형(豫測模型)은 다음과 같다. $\bigcirc$ 합판수요(合板需要)의 예측모형(豫測模型) $^{in}DDP$=0, 65186+1.29412 $^{in}GNP$-0.28385 $^{in}PWI$-1.05011 $^{in}CWI$ DDP: 합판(合版)의 국내수요량(國內需要量)(천(千)S/F) GNP: 국민총생산량(國民總生産量)(Billion Won) PWI: 합판(合板)의 실질도매물가지수(實質都賣物價指數) CWI: 건설자재(建設資材)의 실질도매물가지수(實質都賣物價指數) 2) 추정(推定)된 회귀계수(回歸係數)의 크기로 보아 합판산업(合板産業)의 생산활동(生産活動)을 반영(反映)하는 설명변수중(說明變數中) 합판(合板)의 국내수요(國內需要)에 영향력(影響力)이 가장 큰 인자(因子)는 국민총생산(國民總生産)(GNP)이었다. 3) 예측모형(豫測模型)의 결정계수(決定係數)는 0.9로서 고도(高度)의 유의성(有意性)을 인정(認定)할 수 있다. 4) 추정(推定)된 회귀계수(回歸係數)의 부호(符號)가 GNP는 정(正)의 상관(相關)PWI, CWI는 부(負)의 상관(相關)으로 나타났다. 5) 예측기간(豫測期間)의 년평균(年平均合) 합판수요(合板需要) 증가율(增加率)은 9.4%로 표본기간(標本期間)의 년평균(年平均) 증가율(增加率) 10.2%보다 다소(多少) 둔화(鈍化) 되었다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.91-107
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• 2003

Distribution of fish products from Tongyoung Marine ranching can be classified by three routes such as street-stall, live fish transportation vehicles, and wholesale markets neighboring unloading ports. These methods of distribution, however, have been restricted by limited distribution right, difficulties to differentiate fish prices from other surfaces, simple marketing channels. The ratio of cultured live fish circulated in market is increasing while naturally caught live fish is decreasing and the fresh fish shows a little of increasing rate. Consumers purchasing routes mainly depend on the live fish transportation merchants. For fresh fish traditional market plays an important role in trade. Convenience for consumers and quality of products are main factors in making decision of purchases. Bargaining power, however, belongs to the live fish transportation merchants. The demand of special markets for live fish was very strong, and the convenience and quality are relatively important required factors. Catch from Tongyoung Marine ranching has very good reputation as the possibility of being a good brand. Expecting possibility of quality differentiation was higher than price differentiation specially. The possible conclusion of a contract of a supply was suspicious however. Preliminary quality evaluation revealed that the catch is better than the cultured but worse than naturally grown fish. A merchandising is to be in a better position in the formation of prices by giving $\ulcorner$brand image$\lrcorner$ to potential consumers. The target markets are retail stores such as restaurants for raw fish and final consumers. The staple markets are retail stores. Possible items of products are live fish, fresh fish for cook, and fresh fish for raw fish. It is necessary for the catch to be informed as new functional products that have been improved in safety and quality, since the product positioning is similar but not well known to consumers. To secure a brand it is required to register a trademark, eco-label product design or packing, use real name in tranction, introduce recall system, and put label. Price higher than naturally grown live fish should be targeted. Establishing broad distribution channel, wholesale market, franchise are required. To secure enough catch and control shipment of products facilities of containing live fish are necessary. Instead of dealing with live fish only, it would be better to. sell fresh fish and live fish simultaneous. Strategically promotion focuses on advertisement of Marin ranching at first and then focuses on the catch from the marine ranching.

• 한국가금학회지
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.327-333
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• 2009

한국의 닭고기 가격은 관행적으로 전날 생닭 가격 시세와 운반 비용을 합한 값을 육계 수율로 나누고 여기에 도축 제비용을 합하여 계산, 이를 고시하고 이 고시된 가격이 유통 당사자들의 거래 가격을 결정하는 기준이 된다. 그런데 한국의 육계는 85% 정도가 계열화 생산으로 이루어지므로 생닭 시세는 계열 주체와는 무관한 가격이다. 이러한 여건 하에서 닭고기 유통 단계별 이해 당사자의 손익을 따져 보면 생닭 가격이 낮으면 계열 주체는 적자를 보지만, 대리점 마진은 상대적으로 높아진다. 반대로 생닭 가격이 높으면 계열 주체는 흑자를 보지만, 대리점 마진은 상대적으로 낮아진다. 생닭 가격 인상폭을 그대로 소비자 가격에 반영하지 못하기 때문이다. 결국 생닭 가격과는 관련이 없는 계열 주체가 생닭 가격 등락에 따라 그들의 손익이 좌우되는 모순을 들어낸다. 따라서 닭고기 가격은 생닭 가격과는 무관하게 닭고기 생산 원가를 기준으로 하고 여기에 적정 이윤을 붙여 공장도 가격을 결정 대리점으로 넘기는 가격 결정 시스템이 정착되어야 한다. 이를 위하여 경매 가격이 없는 닭고기 시장에서 거래에 기준이 될 만한 가격을 정하고 이를 널리 고시해야 한다. 일본에서는 일본 젠노 치킨푸드사와 같이 공공적인 특징을 가진 경영체로 하여금 시장 상황을 종합적으로 판단하여 매일 닭고기 희망 가격을 발표케 하고 이를 닭고기 거래에서 참고하도록 하고 있다. 한국도 생닭 가격을 기준하여 계산한 닭고기 가격 결정 방식을 버리고 NH사로 하여금 매일 닭고기 희망 가격을 발표케 함으로써 닭고기 거래의 기준이 되게 하는 방안을 제안한다. 물론 NH사의 닭고기 시장 점유율은 5%에 지나지 않지만 그 공공성을 인정하여야 할 것이다. NH사는 농협중앙회 자회사이기 때문이다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제40권2호
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• pp.49-70
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• 2009

This study proviedes GARCH model(Bollerslev, 1986) to analyze the structural characteristics of price volatility in domestic aquacultural fish market of Korea. As a case study, flatfish and rock-fish are analyzed as major species with relatively high portion in an aspect of production volume among fish captured in Korea. For analyzing, this study uses daily market data (dating from Jan 1 2000 to June 30, 2008) published by the Noryangjin Fisheries Wholesale Market which is located in Seoul of Korea. This study performs normality test on trading volume and price volatility of flatfish and rock-fish as an advanced empirical approach. The normality test adopted is Jarque-Bera test statistic. As a result, first, a null hypothesis that "an empirical distribution follows normal distribution" was rejected in both fishes. The distribution of daily market data of them were not only biased toward positive(+) direction in terms of kurtosis and skewness, but also characterized by leptokurtic distribution with long right tail. Secondly, serial correlations were found in data on market trading volume and price volatility of two species during very long period. Thirdly, the results of unit root test and ARCH-LM test showed that all data of time series were very stationary and demonstrated effects of ARCH. These statistical characteristics can be explained as a reasonable ground for supporting the fitness of GARCH model in order to estimate conditional variances that reveal price volatility in empirical analysis. From empirical data analysis above, this study drew the following conclusions. First of all, from an empirical analysis on potential effects of seasonality and the day of week on price volatility of aquacultural fish, Monday effects were found in both species and Thursday and Friday effects were also found in flatfish. This indicates that Monday is effective in expanding price volatility of aquacultural fish market and also Monday has higher effects upon the price volatility of fish than other days of week have since it has more new information for weekend. Secondly, the empirical analysis led to a common conclusion that there was very high price volatility of flatfish and rock-fish. This points out that the persistency parameter($\lambda$), an index of possibility for current volatility to sustain similarly in the future, was higher than 0.8-equivalently nearly to 1-in both flatfish and rock-fish, which presents volatility clustering. Also, this study estimated and compared and model that hypothesized normal distributions in order to determine fitness of respective models. As a result, the fitness of GARCH(1, 1)-t model was better than model where the distribution of error term was hypothesized through-distribution due to characteristics of fat-tailed distribution, was also better than model, as described in the results of basic statistic analysis. In conclusion, this study has an important mean in that it was introduced firstly in Korea to investigate in price volatility of Korean aquacultural fishery products, although there was partially a limited of official statistic data. Therefore, it is expected that the results of this study will be useful as a reference material for making and assessing governmental policies. Also, it is looked forward that the results will be helpful to build a fishery business plan as and aspect of producer, and also to take timely measures to potential price fluctuations of fishery products in market. Hence, it is advisable that further studies related to such price volatility in fishery market will extend and evolve into a wider variety of articles and issues in near future.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.75-90
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• 2003

When we think of fundamental problems of the aquaculture industry, there are several strict conditions, and consequently the aquaculture industry is forced to change. Fish aquaculture has a structural supply surplus in production, aggravation of fishing grounds, stagnant low price due to recent recession, and drastic change of distribution circumstances. It is requested for us to initiate discussion on such issue as “how fish aquaculture establishes its status in the coastal fishery\ulcorner, will fish aquaculture grow in the future\ulcorner, and if so “how it will be restructured\ulcorner” The above issues can be observed in the mariculture of yellow tail, sea scallop and eel. But there have not been studied concerning seabream even though the production is over 30% of the total production of fish aquaculture in resent and it occupied an important status in the fish aquaculture. The objectives of this study is to forecast the future movement of sea bream aquaculture. The first goal of the study is to contribute to managerial and economic studies on the aquaculture industry. The second goal is to identify the factors influencing the competition between production areas and to identify the mechanisms involved. This study will examine the competitive power in individual producing area, its behavior, and its compulsory factors based on case study. Producing areas will be categorized according to following parameters : distance to market and availability of transportation, natural environment, the time of formation of producing areas (leaderㆍfollower), major production items, scale of business and producing areas, degree of organization in production and sales. As a factor in shaping the production area of sea bream aquaculture, natural conditions especially the water temperature is very important. Sea bream shows more active feeding and faster growth in areas located where the water temperature does not go below 13∼14$^{\circ}C$ during the winter. Also fish aquaculture is constrained by the transporting distance. Aquacultured yellowtail is a mass-produced and a mass-distributed item. It is sold a unit of cage and transported by ship. On the other hand, sea bream is sold in small amount in markets and transported by truck; so, the transportation cost is higher than yellow tail. Aquacultured sea bream has different product characteristics due to transport distance. We need to study live fish and fresh fish markets separately. Live fish was the original product form of aquacultured sea bream. Transportation of live fish has more constraints than the transportation of fresh fish. Death rate and distance are highly correlated. In addition, loading capacity of live fish is less than fresh fish. In the case of a 10 ton truck, live fish can only be loaded up to 1.5 tons. But, fresh fish which can be placed in a box can be loaded up to 5 to 6 tons. Because of this characteristics, live fish requires closer location to consumption area than fresh fish. In the consumption markets, the size of fresh fish is mainly 0.8 to 2kg.Live fish usually goes through auction, and quality is graded. Main purchaser comes from many small-sized restaurants, so a relatively small farmer and distributer can sell it. Aquacultured sea bream has been transacted as a fresh fish in GMS ,since 1993 when the price plummeted. Economies of scale works in case of fresh fish. The characteristics of fresh fish is as follows : As a large scale demander, General Merchandise Stores are the main purchasers of sea bream and the size of the fish is around 1.3kg. It mainly goes through negotiation. Aquacultured sea bream has been established as a representative food in General Merchandise Stores. GMS require stable and mass supply, consistent size, and low price. And Distribution of fresh fish is undertook by the large scale distributers, which can satisfy requirements of GMS. The market share in Tokyo Central Wholesale Market shows Mie Pref. is dominating in live fish. And Ehime Pref. is dominating in fresh fish. Ehime Pref. showed remarkable growth in 1990s. At present, the dealings of live fish is decreasing. However, the dealings of fresh fish is increasing in Tokyo Central Wholesale Market. The price of live fish is decreasing more than one of fresh fish. Even though Ehime Pref. has an ideal natural environment for sea bream aquaculture, its entry into sea bream aquaculture was late, because it was located at a further distance to consumers than the competing producing areas. However, Ehime Pref. became the number one producing areas through the sales of fresh fish in the 1990s. The production volume is almost 3 times the production volume of Mie Pref. which is the number two production area. More conversion from yellow tail aquaculture to sea bream aquaculture is taking place in Ehime Pref., because Kagosima Pref. has a better natural environment for yellow tail aquaculture. Transportation is worse than Mie Pref., but this region as a far-flung producing area makes up by increasing the business scale. Ehime Pref. increases the market share for fresh fish by creating demand from GMS. Ehime Pref. has developed market strategies such as a quick return at a small profit, a stable and mass supply and standardization in size. Ehime Pref. increases the market power by the capital of a large scale commission agent. Secondly Mie Pref. is close to markets and composed of small scale farmers. Mie Pref. switched to sea bream aquaculture early, because of the price decrease in aquacultured yellou tail and natural environmental problems. Mie Pref. had not changed until 1993 when the price of the sea bream plummeted. Because it had better natural environment and transportation. Mie Pref. has a suitable water temperature range required for sea bream aquaculture. However, the price of live sea bream continued to decline due to excessive production and economic recession. As a consequence, small scale farmers are faced with a market price below the average production cost in 1993. In such kind of situation, the small-sized and inefficient manager in Mie Pref. was obliged to withdraw from sea bream aquaculture. Kumamoto Pref. is located further from market sites and has an unsuitable nature environmental condition required for sea bream aquaculture. Although Kumamoto Pref. is trying to convert to the puffer fish aquaculture which requires different rearing techniques, aquaculture technique for puffer fish is not established yet.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.93-108
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• 2014

기업 의사 결정 지원을 위하여 거래 데이터를 다양한 관점에서 분석하고 활용하려는 노력과 관심들이 증가하고 있다. 이러한 노력들은 고객 관리나 마케팅에만 국한되는 것이 아니라 부정행위에 대한 감시와 탐지를 목적으로도 다양한 분석 방안들이 연구되고 있다. 부정행위는 기술의 발전을 악용하여 다양한 형태로 진화하고 있으며, 이에 따라 목적에 맞는 부정탐지 방안 연구와 적용을 통하여 탐지 효용의 극대화를 위한 노력의 필요성이 증가하고 있다. 이러한 연구 동향의 일환으로 본 연구에서는 대용량 거래 데이터가 저장 관리되고 있는 국내 최대 농수산물 유통 시장의 2008년부터 2010년까지 상장예외품목의 거래 가격을 분석하여 부정 탐지 규칙을 도출하였으며, 전문가 검증을 통하여 도출 된 규칙의 신뢰성을 확보하였다. 본 연구의 주요 부정거래 분석 방안으로는 정상적인 데이터들은 발생 확률이 높은 반면에 특이한 데이터들의 발생 확률은 낮다고 가정하는 통계적 접근을 통한 이상치 식별 방안을 활용하였다. 이에 따라 부정거래 분석 별로 정의 된 Z-Score 값보다 클 경우 부정거래 탐지 대상이 된다. 다만 상장예외품목 거래의 경우 취급 가능한 중도매인의 수가 제한되어 있으며, 일반적인 상장품목의 거래보다 거래량이 적기 때문에 소수의 이상치가 품목의 평균에 미치는 영향이 크다. 그 예로 다른 소수의 중도매인들이 해당 품목을 정상적인 가격에 거래하였더라도, 특정한 중도매인 한 명이 지나치게 비정상적인 가격에 거래할 경우 모든 거래들이 부정거래로 탐지 될 가능성도 있다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위하여 기존의 Z-Score의 개념을 활용하여 수정된 Z-Score(Self-Eliminated Z-Score)를 사용하였다. 또한 부정 유형별 탐지 규칙 관리와 활용을 위한 시스템 프로토타입(prototype) 개발을 수행하였다. 이를 통하여 실제 부정거래 탐지 업무에 적용할 수 있는 효과적인 방안을 제시하였고, 농수산 유통시장의 공정성 및 투명성 확보를 위한 관리 감독의 기능 강화가 가능할 것이다.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.156-162
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• 2020

This study was conducted to analyze the current management status of green tea processors in two regions (Hadong-gun and Boseong-gun) in Korea and to suggest directions for the development of the green tea industry based on an understanding their difficulties in management. This study showed that the number of green tea farms and the cultivation area had decreased, while the average unit sales price of green tea in Boseong-gun was approximately three times higher than that in Hadong-gun. Also, this study found that Hadong-gun mainly provided green tea products to wholesalers, whereas Boseong-gun sold it directly to the local retail stores targeting tourists, and this results in generating relatively higher unit prices. Meanwhile, we discovered that both regions had difficulties in management which were caused by the demand for low delivery unit costs from large corporations and small food companies. Therefore, in order to develop the green tea industry in both regions, the size of green tea fields and the scenery satisfaction should be improved to draw more tourists and boost tourists' intention to revisit. In addition, it is necessary to enhance guidance and accessibility of related tourist sites, to expand green tea experience activities, and to improve product satisfaction by developing various goods. By inducing more tourists in these ways, it could change the sales type of green tea from wholesale to retail and help activate the management of green tea processors.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.9-42
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• 1974

Korea is a peninsular country surrounded by seas on three sides, and the fishing industry has carried out the service of suppling to the people with important anima protein. The distribution of fishery products has very complicated structures, because the production is in charge of small producers scattering along the coast all over the country, while consumpstion is made by separate homes in areas away from producing district. The relation between these two factors the structures make very complicated. The most typical and special structures of fishery distridution are distinguished in two, that is, one is landing market, the other is inland market. Landing markets have been monopolized by fishermen's cooperatives, providing with landing facilities and building sites. Fish markets played not only an important role in the landing, but distribution and price determination of catches by auction or tender. Inland markets are two types of wholesale market in consuming center, one is the terminal market for urban consumers, the other type is the local market for rural consumers. Fundamental functions of landing markets are gathering, assessment, and distribution functions. Gathering function is in charge of wholesaler in fishery cooperative. Gathering amounts are equal to gathering capacity of wholesaler and transact ability of licensed dealers as shown below model. Gathering amount=f.gathering capacity(=pre price.landing facility.account of wholesaler.distance of fishing ground.conveniency purchasing.home port)=fㆍ transact ability of licensed dealers≒f.population or port, and table 1 indicates these relationship. Assessment and distribution functions are in charge of licensed dealers in consumption side. Assessment function should bring the value in production activity through the auction between the cooperative seller and the licensed dealer as buyer. For fair trade transaction in auction, the free competition is supposed to be a prerequisite among the licensed dealers. The ideal condition for free competition is sameness in the scale of buying amount by licensed delaers, but it is almost impossible to attain its goal in actual marketing.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 2006년도 춘계공동학술대회 논문집
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• pp.187-192
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• 2006

In the absence of a clear command and control structure, a key challenge in supply chain management is the coordination and alignment of the supply chain members who pursue divergent and often conflicting goals. The newsvendor model is typically used as a framework to quantify the cost of misalignment and to assess the impact of coordination initiatives. This paper considers a fuzzy approach for the newsvendor problem which includes a single manufacturer and a single retailer. We use several fuzzy parameters in the model such as the demand, the wholesale price, and the market sales price. We apply a coordination policy, referred to as buyback, to solve the fuzzy newsvendor problem. Based on the buyback policy, the optimal order quantity of the retailer can be computed, and the possible profits of the members in the supply chain can be calculated with minimum sharing of private information. Focusing on the fuzzy model with buyback policy for the newsvendor problem, we illustrate exemplary fuzzy models. We also illustrate an integration model, which extends a single-manufacturer-single-retailer model to the single-manufacturer-multiple-retailer setting. In the extended model, we consider three coordination policies including quantity discount, profit sharing, and buyback, as well as non-coordination case.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.35-56
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• 2006

Korea is implementing strong regulatory derives such as Feed in Tariff to provide incentives for renewable energy developers. But if the government is planning to increase the renewable capacity with only "Price policy" not considering the investors behavior in the competitive electricity market, the policy would be failed. It is necessary system thinking and simulation model analysis to decide government's incentive goal. This study is focusing on the assesment of the competitiveness of renewable energy with the current Feed in Tariff incentives compared to the traditional energy source, specially coal and gas. The simulation results show that the market penetration of renewable energy with the current Feed-in-Tariff level is about 60-70% of the government goal under condition that the solar energy and fuel cell are assumed to provide the whole capacity set in the governmental goal. If the contribution from solar and fuel cell is lower than planned, the total penetration of renewable energy will be dropped more. Notably, Wind power turned out to be proved only 10% of government goal because of its low availability.