• Culinary science and hospitality research
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.126-134
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• 2017

The purpose of this paper was to examine the dynamics of the price discovery function between lean hog futures and spot markets using the vector error correction model (VECM). The researcher also investigated the existence of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the lean hog futures and spot markets. Daily time series data of lean hog futures and spot observed in the Korean market during the period from 5 Jan. 2011 to 28 Dec. 2012 were analyzed. To examine the price discovery, this study employed the Gonzalo and Granger's (1995) information ratio and Hasbrock's (1995) information ratio measurement method. The significant findings of the study are summarized as follows. First, lean hog futures and spot market are significantly correlated. Secondly, the lean hog future market plays a more dominant role in price discovery than the spot market. Finally, price discovery measures based on the VECM suggested that the lean hog future market plays a more dominant role in price discovery than the lean hog spot market. This is the important systematic empirical work to find the relationship between the lean hog future and spot market.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.207-218
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• 2011

This paper investigates the determinants of trade on Southeast Asia via Korean ports using monthly data. I employ Johansen cointegration methodology since the model must be stationary to avoid the spurious results. Johansen(1988) and Johansen and Juselius(1990) propose two statistics for testing the number of cointegrating vectors: the trace and maximum eigenvalue statistics. The null hypothesis that there is no cointegrating vector should be rejected at the 5% level. The results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between trade and variables. This also suggests that these variables have a meaningful equilibrium relationship between trade and variables would not move too far away from each other, displaying a comovement phenomenon for the export and import. Apparently, the error correction term reflects market information in a state of disequilibrium that is bound to be corrected when moving toward the long-run level.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.215-237
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• 2011

The paper is basically designed to reveal substitutability or complementary nature of export and import among Korea, China, and Japan by employing unit root test, cointegration technique, and vector error correction model(VECM). Empirical evidences are shown that the trading among these countries has been dominated by a complementary nature in the short run which enables it to promote trading in those countries. In the long run, however, the substitutability nature effects strongly to the trading among Korea, China, and Japan. To this end, it could be tentatively concluded that market-oriented trading policies are more effective to stimulate the export and import in those countries in the short run, while a trading policy has to be selectively implemented by the substitutability nature in the long run basis. For instance, a stability policy for exchange rates and various commercial policies could be set for a short term target. Whereas, the substitutability nature should be counted in building up a new industrial structure or in implementing FTA agreement among Korea, China, and Japan.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.759-780
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• 2009

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of Korean FDI(1990-2008) in China by industries on exports and imports between two countries. We use time series regression, Vector Error Correction Model and Impulse Response Function as methodologies. Our findings through empirical tests are as follows. First Korean FDI in China increases Korean exports with China but shows a tendency to decrease due to the local content of China. Second Korean FDI in China increases Korean imports in SITC 8 with China. Finally Korean trade surplus caused by Korean FDI in China shrinks due to the decreasing of exports and increasing of imports in Korea. Korean FDI in China should be oriented host country's market oriented rather than production efficiency oriented because of unfriendly foreign investment environments in China.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.77-97
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• 2012

Estimated coefficients has serious problems including inconsistency, biasness, etc. because many researches about the effect of fiscal decentralization on a country's economic growth use the traditional OLS method. Researches use the data intactly so that so called "spurious regression" phenomenon exists. This causes fundamental fallacy. This research tries unit root test, cointegration test, and then estimates the United States' economic time series by using VECM. The analysis of the effect of the state level-fiscal decentralization on economic growth shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth move the same or different directions. In case of prediction GDP increases steeply and then from 2015 gently; and fiscal decentralization index shows a general reduction trend and then decreases slowly. At local level it shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth also move the same or different directions. Impulse response analysis shows the very negative effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.409-433
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• 2014

In this paper, I estimate long-run elasticities of US real GDP and real exchange rate between Korean Won and US Dollar on export of Korean goods to US and analyze changes in their trend by using VECM and rolling regression with a fixed window. For the purposes I use the year data from 1990 to 2013 which are selected from UNCTAD, Korea Trade Association(KTA), and Bank of Korea(BOK). The results are that the long-run elasticities of US real GDP vary from 2.849 to 2.938 for the period from 1990 to 2013 depending on the models in VECM and all of them are significant statistically. The elasticities of real exchange rate between Korean WON and US Dollar vary from 0.962 to 0.967 for the same period depending on the models in VECM and all of them are significant statistically. In case of the results through the OLS and the rolling regression, the long-run elasticities of US. real GDP are 3.015 for Basic Model, 2.949 for the modified Model 1, and 2.125 for the modified Model 2 for the period from 1990 to 2013 depending on the models and all of them are significant statistically. The average of long-run elasticities of real US GDP before the global financial crisis of 2008 is greater than that after the global financial crisis of 2008. On the other hand, the long-run elasticities of real exchange rate between Korean WON and US $ are 0.347 for Basic Model, 0.566 for the modified Model 1, and -0.217 for the modified Model 2 for the same period and all of them are significant statistically except for the modified Model 2. The average of long-run elasticities of real exchange rate before the global financial crisis of 2008 is greater than that after the global financial crisis of 2008.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.416-427
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• 2018

As the loan size of real estate PF is huge, its market ripple effect gets bigger when overdue occurs. Accordingly, the management of the delinquency rate and macroeconomic analysis are required. As the preceding research mainly proceeded with microeconomic analysis through the real estate PF data of individual banks to evaluate importance of list or analyzed core factors for delinquency, it lacked research on comprehensive real estate PF size. In order to overcome the limitations of such data, this research studied real estate PF delinquency rate of the entire market and effect relationship by the size. The research utilized the size of real estate PF loans, money supply, interest rate, consumer price index(CPI), and GDP data. Also, it applied the first model of VECM as linear relationship between at least two or more variables, following the result of co-integration test. As a result of Granger-causality test, the real estate PF loans delinquency rate is influenced by their loan size, and as a result of impulse response analysis, the interest rate is shown to be affecting delinquency rate the most. Interest rate could risesomeday and aggravate the delinquency rate of real estate PF. Also, risk exposure could be serious as the loan size increases.Therefore, the management of real estate PF delinquency rate requires continuous monitoring, tracking and observing issued loans from a macro point of view. The plans to prevent delinquency will be necessary.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.159-174
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• 2017

The long-term imbalances between supply and demand in office market can weaken urban growth since excessive supply of offices led to office market instability and excessive demand of offices weakens growth of urban industry. Recently, there have been a lot of new large-scale supplies, which increased volatility in Seoul office market. Nevertheless, new supply of Seoul office has not been fully examined. Given this, the focus of this article was on confirming the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul. In examining those influences, another focus was on their relative influences over time. For these purposes, we analyzed quarterly data of Seoul office market between 2003 and 2015 using a vector error correction model (VECM). As a result, in terms of the influences on the current new supply, the impact of supply before the first quarter was negative, while that of office employment before the first quarter was positive. Also, that of interest rate before the second quarter was positive, while those of cap rate before the first quarter and cap rate before the second quarter were negative. Based on the findings, it is suggested that prediction models on Seoul offices need to be developed considering the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.144-154
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• 2018

While the local construction market has lost its steam in recent years, it is discussed that the overseas construction projects should be activated by using the Official Development Assistance (ODA) in terms of finding a new way. This study empirically identifies the relationship between ODA and the foreign construction orders, and discovers the effectiveness of orders for overseas construction projects using the ODA. Therefore, based on the past 25 years of time-series data on Asia, the VECM model was used to identify the relationship between the Asia country's ODA and construction orders. As a result, it has shown a lower-than-expected correlation between the value of ODA and the construction orders. There are several reasons for this; This is because profit-purpose construction projects and ODA for public welfare are fundamentally different, and the timing of ODA applications and overseas construction orders are different. Also, compared to other developed countries, Korea has far less experience and scale of ODA. At last, there are huge differences in the size of ODA and construction orders. In conclusion, although the effectiveness of overseas construction orders based on ODA was not clearly disclosed, the significance of this study is that it attempted to conduct a empirical study on the relationship between ODA and overseas construction orders. Further relationships are expected to be drawn through the accumulation of future ODA experience and the supplementation of time series data, which can provide on a theoretical and practical basis.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.195-216
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• 2013

In this paper, I investigate how international prices affect domestic prices and export prices in Korea by using vector error correction model(VECM) and estimate its impact on international trade. According to the empirical results, international prices, such as world raw material prices and oil prices, make stronger effects on domestic prices, in order of import, export, producer, and consumer prices. And recent years the effect of international raw material prices on domestic prices becomes larger. It implies importers, exporters and producers are more affected by international prices than consumers are. Therefore, the international trade, import and export, is affected by changes in international prices. Firms, especially importing and exporting companies, should do much efforts on risk managing about raw material prices variation, diversification of raw material suppliers, and oversea resources development. The government is needed to support on firms those efforts while doing its economic policies to cope with economic conditions and the price policy.