• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.21-34
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• 2013

Various risk factors affect construction projects. Due to the uncertainties created by risk factors, actual activity durations frequently deviate from the estimated durations in either favorable or adverse direction. For this reason, evaluation of schedule uncertainty is required to make decisions accurately when managing construction projects. In this regard, this paper presents a new computer simulation model - the Repetitive Schedule Risk Analysis Model (RSRAM) - to evaluate unit-based repetitive building project schedules under uncertainty when activity durations and risk factors are correlated. The proposed model utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation and a Critical Path Method based repetitive scheduling procedure. This new procedure concurrently provides the utilization of resources without interruption and the maintenance of network logic through successive units. Furthermore, it enables assigning variable production rates to the activities from one unit to another and any kind of relationship type with or without lag time. Details of the model are described and an example application is presented. The findings show that the model produces realistic results regarding the extent of uncertainty inherent in the schedule.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.93-100
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• 2023

A study of uncertainty analysis was conducted on four key thermophysical properties of molten Platinum using a noncontacting levitation technique. More specifically, this work demonstrates a detailed reporting of the uncertainties associated with the density, volumetric thermal expansion coefficient, surface tension and viscosity measurements at higher temperatures for a widely used refractory metal, Platinum using electrostatic levitation (ESL). The microgravity experiments were conducted using JAXA's Electrostatic Levitation Furnace (ELF) facility on the International Space Station and the terrestrial experiments were conducted using NASA's Marshal Space Flight Center's ESL facility. The performance of these two facilities were then quantified based on the measurement precision and accuracy using the metrological International Standards Organization's Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty Measurement (GUM) principles.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.307-316
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• 2019

In the agricultural sector, greenhouse gas emissions vary depending on the interaction of all ecosystem changes such as soil environment, weather environment, crop growth, and anthropogenic farming activities. Agricultural sector greenhouse gas emissions resulting from many of these interactions are highly variable. Uncertainty-based evaluation that defines the interval with confidence level of greenhouse gas emission and absorption is necessary to take account of the variance characteristics of individual emissions, but research on uncertainty evaluation method is insufficient. This study aims to decide on the effect of reducing N₂O emissions from upland soils using an uncertainty-based approach. An uncertainty-based approach confirmed whether there was a difference between confidence intervals in the 5 different fertilizer treatment groups to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Unlike the statistically significant test with three repetition averages, the uncertainty-based approach method estimated in this study is able to estimate the confidence interval considering the distribution characteristics of the emissions, such as the dispersion characteristics of individual emissions. Therefore, it is considered that the reliability of emissions can be improved by statistically testing the variance characteristics of emissions such as the uncertainty-based approach. It is hoped that the direction of the uncertainty-based approach for the effect of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture will be helpful in the future development of agricultural greenhouse gas emission reduction technology, adaptation to climate change, and further development of sustainable eco-social system.

• Analytical Science and Technology
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-9
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• 2011

We described an estimation of measurement uncertainty in quantitative analysis of 11-nor-9-carboxy-${\Delta}^9$-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH), the metabolite of ${\Delta}^9$-tetrahydrocannabinol, in hair samples by using the bead-assisted liquid-liquid extraction and gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometric (GC-NCI-MS/MS) detection. Traceability of measurement was established through the use of reference materials, calibrated volumetric tubes, volume measuring devices, and measuring instruments. The analytical results were compared and the different contributions to the uncertainty were evaluated. Inter-day variation was performed by using statistical analysis of several indicative factors. Measurement uncertainty associated with the analyte in real forensic hair samples were estimated using QC data. The major factor of contribution to combined standard uncertainty was inter-day repeatability, while those associated with preparation of analytical standard and also sample of weight were insignificant considering the degree of contribution. Relative uncertainty of relative extended standard uncertainty divided into the measured concentration of the analyte was 17% in a hair sample. The uncertainty of result evaluation will be invaluable to improve quality of the analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.23 no.6 s.183
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• pp.96-103
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• 2006

To establish of standard technique of nano-length measurement in 2D plane, new AFM system has been designed. In the long range (about several tens of ${\mu}m$), measurement uncertainty is dominantly affected by the Abbe error of XY scanning stage. No linear stage is perfectly straight; in other words, every scanning stage is subject to tilting, pitch and yaw motion. In this paper, an AFM system with minimum offset of XY sensing is designed. And XY scanning stage is designed to minimize rotation angle because Abbe errors occur through the multiply of offset and rotation angle. To minimize the rotation angle optimal design has performed by maximizing the stiffness ratio of motion direction to the parasitic motion direction of each stage. This paper describes the design scheme of full AFM system, especially about XY stage. Full range of fabricated XY scanner is $100{\mu}m\times100{\mu}m$. And tilting, pitch and yaw motion are measured by autocollimator to evaluate the performance of XY stage. As a result, XY scanner can have good performance. Using this AFM system, 3um pitch specimen was measured. The uncertainty of total system has been evaluated. X and Y direction performance is different. X-direction measuring performance is better. So to evaluate only ID pitch length, X-direction scanning is preferable. Its expanded uncertainty(k=2) is $\sqrt{(3.96)^2+(4.10\times10^{-5}{\times}p)^2}$ measured length in nm.

• Proceedings of the Korea Air Pollution Research Association Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.294-295
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• 2004

• Proceedings of the Korean Magnestics Society Conference
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• 2000.09a
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• pp.563-564
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• 2000

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 1999.10a
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• pp.89.1-89
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• 1999

• Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.40-50
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• 2018

Objective: This study presented the analysis period, the complexity of combined therapy and comparator choice as the key limitations in the economic evaluation of new drugs, and discussed programs for coping with these limitations. Methods: This study evaluated the post-evaluation, risk-sharing agreement, extra funding program, and flexible incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) threshold as actions or programs that would increase accessibility to costly new drugs. The study also presented the cases of other countries. The application of the post-evaluation was considered to deal with high uncertainty regarding new drugs. Results: The risk-sharing agreement was introduced in European countries as well as South Korea and has been responsible for the shift from using the financial schemes to outcome-based schemes. The drug funding program has had troubled in securing stable extra funds. The application of higher ICER in the economic evaluation of expensive and innovative oncology drugs was criticized because of the inequity between oncology patients and patients with other diseases. Conclusion: Therefore, introducing and applying actions that would increase the accessibility to costly new drugs in South Korea have been deemed necessary after careful reviews and discussions with various stakeholders (insurer, policy makers, pharmaceutical companies and patients).

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.31-41
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• 2022

As the environmental impacts of fossil fuel energy sources increase, the South Korean government has tried to change non-environmental-friendly enery sources to environmental-friendly energy sources in order to mitigate environmental effects, which lead to global warming and air pollution. With both a limited budget and limited time, it is essential to accurately evaluate the economic and environmental effects of renewable energy projects for the efficient and effective operation of renewable energy plants. Although the traditional economic evaluation methods are not ideal for evaluating the economic impacts of renewable energy projects, they can still be used for this purpose. Renewable energy projects involve many risks due to various uncertainties. For this reason, this study utilizes a real option method, the Geske compound model, to evaluate the renewable energy projects on Jeju Island in terms of economic and environmental values. This study has developed an economic evaluation model based on the Geske compound model to investigate the influences of flexibility and uncertainty factors on the evaluation process. This study further conducts a sensitivity analysis to examine how two uncertainty factors (namely, investment cost and wind energy production) influence the economic and environmental value of renewable energy projects.