• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.31 no.6
• /
• pp.677-692
• /
• 2018

The total fertility rate of Korea was 1.05 in 2017, showing a return to the 1.08 level in the year 2005. 1.05 is a very low fertility level that is far from replacement level fertility or safety zone 1.5. The number may indicate a low fertility trap. It is therefore important to predict fertility than at any other time. In the meantime, we have predicted the age-specific fertility rate and total fertility rate by various statistical methods. When the data trend is disconnected or fluctuating, it applied a nonparametric method applying the smoothness and weight. In addition, the Bayesian method of using the pre-distribution of fertility rates in advanced countries with reference to the three-stage transition phenomenon have been applied. This paper examines which method is reasonable in terms of precision and feasibility by applying estimation, forecasting, and comparing the results of the recent variability of the Korean fertility rate with parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian methods. The results of the analysis showed that the total fertility rate was in the order of KOSTAT's total fertility rate, Bayesian, parametric and non-parametric method outcomes. Given the level of TFR 1.05 in 2017, the predicted total fertility rate derived from the parametric and nonparametric models is most reasonable. In addition, if a fertility rate data is highly complete and a quality is good, the parametric model approach is superior to other methods in terms of parameter estimation, calculation efficiency and goodness-of-fit.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
• /
• v.28 no.2
• /
• pp.83-100
• /
• 2019

This study, we conducted a non-parametric trend test (Seasonal Kendall tests, LOWESS) and Cross Correlation. We aimed to identify water quality trends using the weekly data for 9 variables (Water Temperature, EC, DO, BOD, COD, T-N, T-P, TOC and Chl-a) collected from 4 sites in the Paldang Lake from 2004.01 to 2016.12. According to the Seasonal Kendall test, Water temperature increased but EC, T-N and T-P decreased trend. LOWESS showed that BOD was gradually decreased from 2013 to 2016. but COD gradually increased between 2012 and 2016. As a result, it was confirmed that the period between 2012 and 2013 was a turning point in the increase of COD along with the decrease of BOD at all sites in Paldang Lake. Results of Cross Correlation showed that there was no time difference between all of Water variables and Sites. In this study, it is necessary to analyze the cause of the transition period and to monitoring the water quality more precisely for better water quality management in Paldang Lake.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
• /
• v.2 no.3
• /
• pp.175-189
• /
• 2011

In this research, we describe the methodology and the quantification about GHG reduction effects, expected by optimization of operation mode according to establishing additional heat storage system of Bundang Combined Cycle Power Plant. As an intermediate form of General Combined Cycle Power Plant and Heat supply only district heating plant, Bundang Combined Cycle Power Plant(and Ilsan, Anyang, Bucheon) is possible to satisfy demand for the electrical load and thermal load capacity at the same time through changes to the operation mode itself. Therefore, through the operating transition of high-efficiency mode that the condenser cooling water is recovered and supplied to district heat and cooling, establishing additional heat storage system have flexible supply ability at the power and heat market. In this research, We calculated using the operating performance for the last three years(2008~2010) and efficiency of each mode-specific values. As a result, GHG reduction effects were calculated as $97.95kg_{-}CO_2/Gcal$ per heat energy 1 Gcal supplied at the heat storage system and we expected emmision reduction effect about $13,500Ton_{-}CO_2/yr$.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.38 no.6
• /
• pp.867-878
• /
• 2018

As the era of AVs (Automated Vehicles) comes to a close, many researches related to AVs have been conducted. Up until now, research on traffic flow impact of AVs has been the main topic, and research on traffic management for AVs is still in beginning stage. This study analyzed the effect of Dynamic Merge Control (DMC) in manual vehicle (MV) and AV environment at work zone. Dynamic Late Merge (DLM) and DLM with Dynamic Early Merge (DEM) are compared by simulation. Simulation results showed that DLM improves travel time and work zone throughput compared to no merge control case in both MV and AV environment. In the case of additional operation of DEM, the improvement effect was not observed in MV environment, but it was improved in AV environment. As a result, DMC operation in AV environment was as effective as the improvement in transition from MV to AV environment. Therefore congestion reduction at freeway work zone by DMC will be possible in future AV environment, and the improvement of DMC can be suggested.

• Korean Journal of Materials Research
• /
• v.29 no.2
• /
• pp.92-96
• /
• 2019

Transition metal oxide is widely used as a water electrolysis catalyst to substitute for a noble metal catalyst such as $IrO_2$ and $RuO_2$. In this study, the sol-gel method is used to synthesize the $Cu_xCo_{3-x}O_4$ catalyst for the oxygen evolution reaction (OER),. The CuxCo3-xO4 is synthesized at various calcination temperatures from $250^{\circ}C$ to $400^{\circ}C$ for 4 h. The $Cu_xCo_{3-x}O_4$ synthesized at $300^{\circ}C$ has a perfect spinel structure without residues of the precursor and secondary phases, such as CuO. The particle size of $Cu_xCo_{3-x}O_4$ increases with an increase in calcination temperature. Amongst all the samples studied, $Cu_xCo_{3-x}O_4$, which is synthesized at 300?, has the highest activity for the OER. Its onset potential for the OER is 370 mV and the overpotential at $10mA/cm^2$ is 438 mV. The tafel slope of $Cu_xCo_{3-x}O_4$ synthesized at $300^{\circ}C$ has a low value of 58 mV/dec. These results are mainly explained by the increase in the available active surface area of the $Cu_xCo_{3-x}O_4$ catalyst.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.20 no.3
• /
• pp.638-644
• /
• 2019

In this study, the fluid flow and heat transfer characteristics within sandwich panels are investigated using computational fluid dynamics. Within the sandwich panels having periodic cellular cores, air can freely move inside the core section so that the structure is able to perform multi-functional roles such as simultaneous load bearing and heat dissipation. Thus, there needs to examine the thermal and flow analysis with respect to design variables and various conditions. In this regard, ANSYS Fluent was utilized to explore the flow and heat transfer within the pyramidal truss sandwich structures by varying the truss angle and inlet velocity. Without the entry effect in the first unitcell, the constant rate of pressure and the constant rate of Nusselt number was observed. As a result, it was demonstrated that Nusselt number increases and friction factor decreases as the inlet velocity increases. Moreover, the rate of Nusselt number and friction factor was appreciable in the range of V=1-5m/s due to the transition from laminar to turbulent flow. Regarding the effect of design variable, the variation of truss angle did not significantly influence the characteristics.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
• /
• v.28 no.2
• /
• pp.1-17
• /
• 2019

This article analyzes causal relationships among gross domestic product(GDP), electricity consumption, carbon dioxide($CO_2$) emission and foreign direct investments(FDI) inflow of Korea over the period from 1976 to 2014, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model(VECM). As the results, this article found (1) a long-run bi-directional causality between GDP and electricity consumption, which may imply a negative impact of electricity consumption-saving policy on economic growth, (2) uni-directional short- and long-run causalities running from $CO_2$ emission to GDP, and a uni-directional long-run causality running from $CO_2$ emission to electricity consumption, which can result in a negative impact of $CO_2$ emission reduction policy on economic growth and electricity consumption, (3) a uni-directional long-run causality running from FDI to GDP, and uni-directional short- and long-run causalities running from FDI to electricity consumption, which may result from relatively lower electricity prices than investing countries, (4) no causality between FDI and $CO_2$ emission, which is based on the characteristics of FDI composed of service industries. Considering the above causal relationships among the four variables, the policy implication needs to focus on the electricity demand management based on the relevant R&Ds, and on the gradual transition from fossil fuel- to renewable-energy. Adaptive policy to increase the FDI inflow is also needed.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.445-451
• /
• 2019

The fluorescence intensity and fluorescence lifetime of $Ba_2GdV_3O_{11}$, a vanadate compound based on $Ba^{2+}$ ion, were investigated by adding $Eu^{3+}$ as a rare earth ion which is an alkaline earth metal, which is distributed around active ions and has a large influence on fluorescent properties when used as a host in a phosphor. $Ba_2GdV_3O_{11}:Eu^{3+}$ phosphor was synthesized by solid state method and the crystallinity of the phosphor was confirmed by X - ray diffraction analysis. The fluorescence properties of the $Ba_2GdV_3O_{11}:Eu^{3+}$ phosphor were measured using optical and laser. The energy transfer and diffusion of the $Ba_2GdV_3O_{11}:Eu^{3+}$ phosphor are highly dependent on the concentration of $Eu^{3+}$. When the concentration of $Eu^{3+}$ is low, it shows strong fluorescence to the CT band. However, as the concentration of $Eu^{3+}$ increases, the fluorescence due to 4f - 4f transition is strong. The concentration of $Eu^{3+}$ ion increased and the energy between ions was diffused, and the lifetime of fluorescence decreased. Energy transfer occurs between two $Eu^{3+}$ ions at low $Eu^{3+}$ concentration and energy diffusion occurs at high $Eu^{3+}$ concentration.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.28 no.1
• /
• pp.147-176
• /
• 2019

This paper uses research on the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) in South Korea to conduct a simulation analysis on the impact of nuclear power dependency and usage rates on the social costs of power generation. We compare the $7^{th}$ basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand, which was designed to increase nuclear power generation, to the $8^{th}$ basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand that decreased nuclear power generation and increased renewable energy generation in order to estimate changes in social costs and electricity rates according to the power generation mix. Our environmental generation mix simulation results indicate that social costs may increase by 22% within 10 years while direct generation cost and electricity rates based on generation and other production costs may increase by as much as 22% and 18%, respectively. Thus we confirm that the power generation mix from the $8^{th}$ basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand compared to the $7^{th}$ plan increases social costs of generation, which include environmental external costs.

• Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
• /
• v.36 no.2
• /
• pp.13-24
• /
• 2020

This study derives the characteristics of the private external space planning in multi-family housing through the analysis of the good case built after 2000 in Europe. First, the cases were categorized into block or block perimeter, linear and point type to examine the relationship between the type of building in urban context and the location of private external space. By block or block perimeter and linear type, private external spaces are planned in the inner courtyards or open space between buildings used as common space for residents, inducing communications between neighbors. And the direction of private external space depends on the arrangement of the building mass in urban context. In the classification as point type, there are many cases, where private external spaces are arranged in all directions, connected almost all interior spaces. Second, based on the above results, the planned characteristics of the private external space are derived by dividing it into three categories: intermediated space between inside and outside, intermediate space between private and public /individual and collective space and the identity of the intermediate space. (1) In most cases, direction, size of enclosed area and location of private extern space is designed to fit the surrounding context, so residents can perceive as much of the assets of the surrounding environment as possible, and it can be used as an extended area of living space. In another cases, it is divided into various sub-areas to experience the spatial transition from inside to outside or vice versa. 2) The private external space, which is placed in a courtyard or in a collective open space, is partially enclosed and blocked, allowing interaction with the neighbors without pressure. Along the street, they are designed to allow residents to experience the vitality of the city and to be formative element of the facade, which could confidently reveal the lifestyle and taste of residents. 3) By some of point types, which facade is three-demensional layer as a habitable external space, the private external space is very flexible for use. This intermediate space is composed of diverse spaces for various needs, or it has generous size with positional conditions connected with all interior spaces to be used multi-functional.