• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.57-67
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• 1987

In time series analysis, we usually require the assumption that time series are stationary. But we may often encounter time series whose parameter values subject to change. Inthis paper w propose a method which can detect the variance change point in anAR(1) model which is subjct to changesat non-predictable time points. Proposed method is compared with other methods using the simulated and real data.

• Quantitative Bio-Science
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.73-79
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• 2018

As high frequency (HF, for short) time series is now prevalent in the presence of real time big data, volatility computations based on traditional ARCH/GARCH models need to be further developed to suit the high frequency characteristics. This article reviews realized volatilities (RV) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) to deal with high frequency volatility computations. As a (functional) infinite dimensional models, the fARCH and fGARCH are introduced to accommodate ultra high frequency (UHF) volatilities. The fARCH and fGARCH models are developed in the recent literature by Hormann et al. [1] and Aue et al. [2], respectively, and our discussions are mainly based on these two key articles. Real data applications to domestic UHF financial time series are illustrated.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.72 no.6
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• pp.689-712
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• 2019

Time-series models like AR-ARX and ARMAX, provide a robust way to capture the dynamic properties of structures, and their residuals can be effectively used as features for damage detection. Even though several research papers discuss the implementation of AR-ARX and ARMAX models for damage diagnosis, they are basically been exploited so far for detecting the time instant of damage and also the spatial location of the damage. However, the inverse problem associated with damage quantification i.e. extent of damage using time series models is not been reported in the literature. In this paper, an approach to detect the extent of damage by combining the ARMAX model by formulating the inverse problem as a multi-constrained optimization problem and solving using a newly developed hybrid adaptive differential search with dynamic interaction is presented. The proposed variant of the differential search technique employs small multiple populations which perform the search independently and exchange the information with the dynamic neighborhood. The adaptive features and local search ability features are built into the algorithm in order to improve the convergence characteristics and also the overall performance of the technique. The multi-constrained optimization formulations of the inverse problem, associated with damage quantification using time series models, attempted here for the first time, can considerably improve the robustness of the search process. Numerical simulation studies have been carried out by considering three numerical examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique in robustly identifying the extent of the damage. Issues related to modeling errors and also measurement noise are also addressed in this paper.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.457-465
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• 2010

In this study, a Taylor series (T-S) model based on the Arrhenius, McVetty, and Monkman-Grant equations was developed using a mathematical analysis. In order to reduce fitting errors, the McVetty equation was transformed by considering the first three terms of the Taylor series equation. The model parameters were accurately determined by a statistical technique of maximum likelihood estimation, and this model was applied to the creep data of alloy 617. The T-S model results showed better agreement with the experimental data than other models such as the Eno, exponential, and L-M models. In particular, the T-S model was converted into an isothermal Taylor series (IT-S) model that can predict the creep strength at a given temperature. It was identified that the estimations obtained using the converted ITS model was better than that obtained using the T-S model for predicting the long-term creep life of alloy 617.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.259-269
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• 1993

A moving average model, LMA(q) and an autoregressive-moving average model, NLARMA(p, q), with Laplacian marginal distribution are constructed and their properties are discussed; Their autocorrelation structures are completely analogus to those of Gaussian process and they are partially time reversible in the third order moments. Finally, we study the mixing property of NLARMA process.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.49-61
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• 2020

Prior studies on technology predictions attempted to predict the emergence and spread of emerging technologies through the analysis of correlations and changes between data using objective data such as patents and research papers. Most of the previous studies predicted future technologies only from the viewpoint of technology development. Therefore, this study intends to conduct technical forecasting from the perspective of the consumer by using keyword search frequency of search portals such as NAVER before and after the introduction of emerging technologies. In this study, we analyzed healthcare technologies into three types : measurement technology, platform technology, and remote service technology. And for the keyword analysis on the healthcare, we converted the classification of technology perspective into the keyword classification of consumer perspective. (Blood pressure and blood sugar, healthcare diagnosis, appointment and prescription, and remote diagnosis and prescription) Naver Trend is used to analyze keyword trends from a consumer perspective. We also used the ARIMA model as a technology prediction model. Analyzing the search frequency (Naver trend) over 44 months, the final ARIMA models that can predict three types of healthcare technology keyword trends were estimated as "ARIMA (1,2,1) (1,0,0)", "ARIMA (0,1,0) (1,0,0)", "ARIMA (1,1,0) (0,0,0)". In addition, it was confirmed that the values predicted by the time series prediction model and the actual values for 44 months were moving in almost similar patterns in all intervals. Therefore, we can confirm that this time series prediction model for healthcare technology is very suitable.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.331-338
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• 2012

Irregularity data inspected by EM-120, an railway inspection system in Korea includes unavoidable incomplete and erratic information, so it is encountered lots of problem to analyse those data without appropriate pre-data-refining processes. In this research, for the efficient management and maintenance of railway system, characteristics and problems of the detected track irregularity data have been analyzed and efficient processing techniques were developed to solve the problems. The correlation between track irregularity and seasonal changes was conducted based on ARIMA model analysis. Finally, time series analysis was carried out by various forecasting model, such as regression, exponential smoothing and ARIMA model, to determine the appropriate optimal models for forecasting track irregularity progress.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.30-37
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to compare and contrast the amount of overseas construction orders of South Korea and China by using various time series models that measure the overseas construction orders. Based on the analysis we propose better specification (model selection) with much more predictive power and prove the universality of the model developed by applying our findings with respect to the prediction power of overseas construction orders from other countries viewpoints (verification of generalization). The input variables include Dubai crude oil and exchange rates by country from 1981 to 2019. The VAR model is proposed based on the prediction power test, with respect to MAPE, RMSE, and MAE between the estimates and actual measurements from 2016 to 2019. We also conclude the results of the prediction of overseas construction orders time series of China are again consistent with the actual numbers. These analyses suggest the possibility of developing a comprehensive model that predict the potential construction orders of other countries.

• KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.79-86
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• 2019

This paper describes a time-series data prediction based on artificial neural networks (ANN). In this study, a batch based ANN model and a stochastic ANN model have been implemented using TensorFlow libraries. Each model are evaluated by comparing training and testing errors that are measured through experiment. To train and test each model, tax dataset was used that are collected from the government website of indiana state budget agency in USA from 2001 to 2018. The dataset includes tax incomes of individual, product sales, company, and total tax incomes. The experimental results show that batch model reveals better performance than stochastic model. Using the batch scheme, we have conducted a prediction experiment. In the experiment, total taxes are predicted during next seven months, and compared with actual collected total taxes. The results shows that predicted data are almost same with the actual data.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.127-135
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• 2010

The validation of a simulation model is a key to demonstrate that the simulation model is reliable. However, among various validation methods have been introduced, it is very poor to research the specific techniques for the time series data. Therefore, this paper suggests the methodology to verify the simulation using the time series data by Wavelet Transform, Power Spectrum and Coherence. This method performs 2 steps as followed. Firstly, we get spectrum using the Wavelet transform available for non-periodic signal separation. Secondly, we compare 2 patterns of output data from simulation model and actual system by Coherence Analysis. As a result of comparing it with other validation techniques, the suggested way can judge simulation model accuracy more clearly. By this way, we can make it possible to perform the simulation validation test under various situations using detailed sectional validation method, which has been impossible using a single statistics for the whole model.