Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Development of an Optimal Model for Forecasting Overseas Construction Orders

해외건설수주액 예측을 위한 최적모형 개발

  • 이광원 (신안산대학교 기계설계과) ;
  • 조웅현 (HS애드 디지털플랫폼사업부)
  • Received : 2020.03.30
  • Accepted : 2020.05.25
  • Published : 2020.07.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to compare and contrast the amount of overseas construction orders of South Korea and China by using various time series models that measure the overseas construction orders. Based on the analysis we propose better specification (model selection) with much more predictive power and prove the universality of the model developed by applying our findings with respect to the prediction power of overseas construction orders from other countries viewpoints (verification of generalization). The input variables include Dubai crude oil and exchange rates by country from 1981 to 2019. The VAR model is proposed based on the prediction power test, with respect to MAPE, RMSE, and MAE between the estimates and actual measurements from 2016 to 2019. We also conclude the results of the prediction of overseas construction orders time series of China are again consistent with the actual numbers. These analyses suggest the possibility of developing a comprehensive model that predict the potential construction orders of other countries.

본 연구는 해외건설수주액을 설명하는 다양한 시계열 모형의 비교와 검증을 통해, 예측력 관점에서 가장 적합한 해외건설수주 예측모형을 선택하고(모형선택), 이를 다른 국가의 해외건설수주 예측에도 적용하여 개발된 모형의 보편성을 확인하는데(일반화 검증) 목적이 있다. 연구에는 1981년부터 2019년까지의 연도별 해외건설수주액, 두바이유가 및 국가별 환율 데이터를 활용하였다. 2016~2019년간 예측치와 실측치 간의 오차(MAPE, RMSE, MAE)가 낮고, 2018-2019년간 해외건설수주액 증감여부를 정확하게 맞추는 모형을 선택하였는데, 이러한 기준에 따라 VAR모형이 선택되었다. 이를 활용하여 중국 해외건설수주액을 예측한 결과도 실제와 부합하였다. 이러한 분석 결과는 추후 세계 건설수주 시장 전반을 분석하는 종합적 모형개발 가능성을 시사한다.

Keywords

References

  1. Adebiyi, M.A., Adenuga, A.O., Abeng, M.O., and Omanukwue, P.N. (2009). "Oil price shock, exchange rate and stock market behavior: Empirical evidence from Nigeria." The 2009 Conference of the African Econometric Society (AES) on Econometric Modelling for Africa. Abuja, Nigeria.
  2. Aimer, N.M. (2016). "The Effects of Oil Price Volatility on the Economic Sectors of Libya." International Journal of Business and Social Research, 6(2), 2016, pp. 13-24. https://doi.org/10.18533/ijbsr.v6i12.1017
  3. ChosunBiz (2019). "The weak Korean won and fluctuating international oil prices...Plant industry: Should I tap the calculator?" https://biz.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2019/05/27/2019052701882.html
  4. Construction & Economy Research Institute of Korea (2016). Chinese construction companies' overseas market trend.
  5. Daily Construction News (2015). Rapid growth of global 'Chinese construction companies' ... in the background? https://blog.naver.com/hkc0929/220547588743
  6. International Contractors Association of Korea (2020). International Construction Information Service, www.icak.or.kr
  7. Jung, P.S. (2012). "Correlation Analysis between overseas construction orders and macroeconomic variables using the VAR model." Graduate School of Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea.
  8. Kim, W.J. (2018). "Overseas Construction Order Forecasting Using Time Series Model." Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, KICEM, 19(2), pp. 107-116. https://doi.org/10.6106/KJCEM.2018.19.2.107
  9. Lee, D.S. (2017). "Problems and Alternatives of Asian Market Crude Oil." Korea Energy Economics Institute.
  10. Lee, J.W. (1994). Econometrics, 2nd ed, Parkyoungsa, Seoul.
  11. Lee, Y.B. (2012). Introduction to Economic Time Series using RATS. 1st ed, Seoul, Jiphil Media.
  12. Maeil Business News Korea (2019). "Korea's overseas construction retreated 13 years ago ... This year, orders decreased by 31% to $ 18.5 billion."https://www.mk.co.kr/news/realestate/view/2019/12/1038472.
  13. Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (2020). Concise statistics of China's foreign contracted project business in 2019, hzs.mofcom.gov.cn.
  14. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Korea (2007). Global Construction Market Outlook and Mid- to Long-term Response Strategies.
  15. Moon, K.S. (1997). "A Understanding of Vector Autoregressive Model." Journal of the Korean Official Statistics, KOSTAT, 2(1), pp. 23-57.
  16. Olatunji, O.A. (2010). "The Impact of oil price regimes on construction cost in Nigeria." Construction Management and Economics (July 2010), 28, pp. 747-759. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446191003725162
  17. Park, B.J. (2013). "A Study on Influence of Domestic and International Construction Market upon International Construction Projects Order." Graduate School, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea.
  18. Park, H.P. (2014). "Correlation Analysis of Overseas Construction Market based on the Growth Rate of the World Economy and Oil Price." Korean Society of Civil Engineers, KSCE, Proceedings of Conference, pp. 1545-1546.
  19. Park, J.Y., Yoo, S.K., Kim, J.H., and Kim, J.J. (2012). "A Study on Effect Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables on the Amount of Overseas Construction Orders by Region." The Korea Institute of Building Construction, KIC, Proceedings of Autumn Conference, 12(2), pp. 143-145.