• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-series Analysis

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Analysis of Load Capacity and Deformation Behavior of Suction Pile Installed in Sand (모래지반에 근입된 석션파일의 인발저항력 및 변위거동 분석)

  • Kim, You-Seok;Jang, Yeon-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.27 no.11
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2011
  • A series of centrifuge model tests to investigate the suction pile pullout loading capacity in sand have been performed. The main parameters that affect the pullout loading capacity of a suction pile include the mooring line inclination angle and the padeye position of the suction pile. With respect to the padeye position, the maximum pullout loading capacity is obtained when the padeye position is near 75% of the pile length from the top. The direction of the pile rotation changes when the padeye position reaches somewhere near 50~75% for all mooring line inclination angles. The translation displacement of suction pile to develop the time of maximum pullout loading capacity decreased as the mooring line inclination angle increased. In addition, the vertical displacements of the center of a suction piles for all cases appeared to develop toward the ground surface.

NEW PHOTOMETRIC PIPELINE TO EXPLORE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIABILITY WITH KMTNET DEEP-SOUTH OBSERVATIONS

  • Chang, Seo-Won;Byun, Yong-Ik;Shin, Min-Su;Yi, Hahn;Kim, Myung-Jin;Moon, Hong-Kyu;Choi, Young-Jun;Cha, Sang-Mok;Lee, Yongseok
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.129-142
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    • 2018
  • The DEEP-South (the Deep Ecliptic Patrol of the Southern Sky) photometric census of small Solar System bodies produces massive time-series data of variable, transient or moving objects as a by-product. To fully investigate unexplored variable phenomena, we present an application of multi-aperture photometry and FastBit indexing techniques for faster access to a portion of the DEEP-South year-one data. Our new pipeline is designed to perform automated point source detection, robust high-precision photometry and calibration of non-crowded fields which have overlap with previously surveyed areas. In this paper, we show some examples of catalog-based variability searches to find new variable stars and to recover targeted asteroids. We discover 21 new periodic variables with period ranging between 0.1 and 31 days, including four eclipsing binary systems (detached, over-contact, and ellipsoidal variables), one white dwarf/M dwarf pair candidate, and rotating variable stars. We also recover astrometry (< ${\pm}1-2$ arcsec level accuracy) and photometry of two targeted near-earth asteroids, 2006 DZ169 and 1996 SK, along with the small- (~0.12 mag) and relatively large-amplitude (~0.5 mag) variations of their dominant rotational signals in R-band.

Probability Distribution of Project Completion Times in Simulation based Scheduling (시뮬레이션 일정기법;최종공사기간의 확률 통계적 특성 추정)

  • Lee, Dong-Eun;Kim, Ryul-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.327-330
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    • 2007
  • This paper verifies that the normality assumption that the simulation output data, Project Completion Times (PCTs), follow normal distribution is not always acceptable and the existing belief may lead to misleading results. A risk quantification method, which measures the effect caused by the assumption, relative to the probability distribution of PCTs is implemented as an algorithm in MATLAB. To validate the reliability of the quantification, several series of simulation experiments have been carried out to analyze a set of simulation output data which are obtained from different type of Probability Distribution Function (PDF) assigned to activities'duration in a network. The method facilitates to find the effect of PDF type and its parameters. The procedure necessary for performing the risk quantification method is described in detail along with the findings. This paper contributes to improving the reliability of simulation based scheduling method, as well as increasing the accuracy of analysis results.

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Genetically Optimized Neurofuzzy Networks: Analysis and Design (진화론적 최적 뉴로퍼지 네트워크: 해석과 설계)

  • 박병준;김현기;오성권
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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    • v.53 no.8
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    • pp.561-570
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, new architectures and comprehensive design methodologies of Genetic Algorithms(GAs) based Genetically optimized Neurofuzzy Networks(GoNFN) are introduced, and a series of numeric experiments are carried out. The proposed GoNFN is based on the rule-based Neurofuzzy Networks(NFN) with the extended structure of the premise and the consequence parts of fuzzy rules being formed within the networks. The premise part of the fuzzy rules are designed by using space partitioning in terms of fuzzy sets defined in individual variables. In the consequence part of the fuzzy rules, three different forms of the regression polynomials such as constant, linear and quadratic are taken into consideration. The structure and parameters of the proposed GoNFN are optimized by GAs. GAs being a global optimization technique determines optimal parameters in a vast search space. But it cannot effectively avoid a large amount of time-consuming iteration because GAs finds optimal parameters by using a given space. To alleviate the problems, the dynamic search-based GAs is introduced to lead to rapidly optimal convergence over a limited region or a boundary condition. In a nutshell, the objective of this study is to develop a general design methodology o GAs-based GoNFN modeling, come up a logic-based structure of such model and propose a comprehensive evolutionary development environment in which the optimization of the model can be efficiently carried out both at the structural as well as parametric level for overall optimization by utilizing the separate or consecutive tuning technology. To evaluate the performance of the proposed GoNFN, the models are experimented with the use of several representative numerical examples.

Analysis of Voltage Unbalance in the Electric Railway Depot Using Two-port Network Model (4단자 회로망 모델을 이용한 전기철도 차량기지의 전압불평형 해석)

  • Chang, Sang-Hoon;Oh, Kwang-Hae;Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.248-254
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    • 2001
  • The traction power demand highly varies with time and train positions and the traction load is a large-capacity current at single phase converted from 3-phase power system. Subsequently, each phase current converted from 3-phase power system cannot be maintained in balance any longer and thus the traction load can bring about imbalance in three-phase voltage. Therefore, the exact assessment of voltage unbalance must be carried out preferentially as well as load forecast at stages of designing and planning for electric railway system. The evaluation of unbalance voltage in areas, such as electric railway depots should be a prerequisite with more accuracy. The conventional researches on voltage unbalance have dealt with connection schemes of the transformers used in ac AT-fed electric railroads system and induced formulas to briefly evaluate voltage unbalance in the system(3). These formulas are still being used widely due to their easy applicabilities on voltage unbalance evaluation. Meanwhile, they don't take into account detailed characteristics of ac AT-fed electric railroads system, being founded on some assumptions. Accordingly. accuracy still remains in question. This paper proposes a new method to more effectively estimate voltage unbalance index. In this method, numerous diverted circuits in electric railway depots are categorized in three components and each component is defined as a two-port network model. The equivalent circuit for the entire power supply system is also described into a two-port network model by making parallel and/or series connections of these components. Efficiency and accuracy in voltage unbalance calculation as well can be promoted by simplifying the circuits into two-port network models.

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Self-Organizing Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Networks by Means of IG-based Consecutive Optimization : Design and Analysis (정보 입자기반 연속전인 최적화를 통한 자기구성 퍼지 다항식 뉴럴네트워크 : 설계와 해석)

  • Park, Ho-Sung;Oh, Sung-Kwun
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.264-273
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, we propose a new architecture of Self-Organizing Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Networks (SOFPNN) by means of consecutive optimization and also discuss its comprehensive design methodology involving mechanisms of genetic optimization. The network is based on a structurally as well as parametrically optimized fuzzy polynomial neurons (FPNs) conducted with the aid of information granulation and genetic algorithms. In structurally identification of FPN, the design procedure applied in the construction of each layer of a SOFPNN deals with its structural optimization involving the selection of preferred nodes (or FPNs) with specific local characteristics and addresses specific aspects of parametric optimization. In addition, the fuzzy rules used in the networks exploit the notion of information granules defined over system's variables and formed through the process of information granulation. That is, we determine the initial location (apexes) of membership functions and initial values of polynomial function being used in the premised and consequence part of the fuzzy rules respectively. This granulation is realized with the aid of the hard c-menas clustering method (HCM). For the parametric identification, we obtained the effective model that the axes of MFs are identified by GA to reflect characteristic of given data. Especially, the genetically dynamic search method is introduced in the identification of parameter. It helps lead to rapidly optimal convergence over a limited region or a boundary condition. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, the model is experimented with using two time series data(gas furnace process, nonlinear system data, and NOx process data).

A numerical study on portfolio VaR forecasting based on conditional copula (조건부 코퓰라를 이용한 포트폴리오 위험 예측에 대한 실증 분석)

  • Kim, Eun-Young;Lee, Tae-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.1065-1074
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    • 2011
  • During several decades, many researchers in the field of finance have studied Value at Risk (VaR) to measure the market risk. VaR indicates the worst loss over a target horizon such that there is a low, pre-specified probability that the actual loss will be larger (Jorion, 2006, p.106). In this paper, we compare conditional copula method with two conventional VaR forecasting methods based on simple moving average and exponentially weighted moving average for measuring the risk of the portfolio, consisting of two domestic stock indices. Through real data analysis, we conclude that the conditional copula method can improve the accuracy of portfolio VaR forecasting in the presence of high kurtosis and strong correlation in the data.

Maritime Casualties Occurred Onboard Ships Registered under the Central American Region Flag States

  • Rojas, Oscar Porras;Imazu, Hayama;Fujisaka, Takahiko
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • v.1
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2006
  • This research is based on the information compiled on the occurrence of maritime casualties onboard ships registered under Central American Region (CAR) flag States. Due to nonexistence of writing reports in anyone of the countries that are integrating this Region, the information was compiled by the author through personal communication with the people involved in the casualties. The information was compiled by typing up the text and digitizing on the computer for the respective data base. For each casualty occurred, the following information was compiled, date and type of the casualty, position of the ship at the time of the casualty, dimension of the ship, number of people affected by the casualty, and cause and consequences of the casualty. Based on the number of people affected (death and disappear) by the casualties occurred was calculated the mortality rate by 100,000 persons and then compared with the Japanese mortality rate. Furthermore were analyzed the CAR maritime authorities competences and then were compared to that the Japanese counter part. In addition, the implementation rate of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and International Labor Organization (ILO) conventions ratified by the CAR countries were analyzed. The objective of this research was to compiled and analyze the occurrences of maritime casualties happened on board the ships registered under the CAR Flag States, in order to determine the causes of these accidents. The results of the analysis enable us to better understand of the maritime safety situation of the ships that are registered under the CAR flag States. In order to reduce the occurrence of maritime casualties are proposed a series of measures based on the differences found then the comparison between CAR and Japan. Based on the results of this research, is possible to conclude that the inaccessibility of atmospheric information and the lack of safety measures onboard has been the main cause of the maritime casualties happened in the Pacific side of the CAR.

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Forecasting Technique of Line Utilization based on SNMP MIB-II Using Time Series Analysis (시계열 분석을 이용한 SNMP MIB-II 기반의 회선 이용률 예측 기법)

  • Hong, Won-Taek;An, Seong-Jin;Jeong, Jin-Uk
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.6 no.9
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    • pp.2470-2478
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    • 1999
  • In this paper, algorithm is proposed to forecast line utilization using SNMP MIB-II. We calculate line utilization using SNMP MIB-II on TCP/IP based Internet and suggest a method for forecasting a line utilization on the basis of past line utilization. We use a MA model taking difference transform among ARIMA methods. A system for orecasting is proposed. To show availability of this algorithm, some results are shown and analyzed about routers on real environments. We get a future line utilization using this algorithm and compare it ot real data. Correct results are obtained in case of being few data deviating from mean value. This algorithm for forecasting line utilization can give effect to line c-apacity plan for a manager by forecasting the future status of TCP/IP network. This will also help a network management of decision making of performance upgrade.

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An Analysis on the Impact of Korea-Chile FTA on Busan Port - Focusing on the Inbound Container from Chile - (한-칠레 자유무역협정이 부산항 물동량에 미치는 영향분석 - 대 칠레 수입 컨테이너화물 중심 -)

  • Nam, Kichan;Nam, Hyung-Sik;Kang, Dal-Won
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.681-687
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    • 2013
  • Free Trade Agreement(FTA) aims at abolishing tariffs on trade among nations or regions resulting in having a significant impact on maritime transportation and port. Korea made the first FTA with Chile in 2004 and the trade volume between two countries has seen significant increase. The literature on such impact, however, seems to be very limited. The main purpose of this study is, therefore, to analyze the impact of Korea-Chile Free Trade Agreement on the imported container throughput from Chile at the Busan Port. For this both cross-sectional and time series data are collected that comprise container throughput, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), import tariff, and maritime freight rate, from 2000 to 2011, and the gravity model is applied. The main result of the study shows that the dependent variables, GDP and import tariff are statistically significant, but the maritime freight rate is not consistent with regarding to statistical significance and parameter sign.