• Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 2012

Hemorrhagic shock is a common cause of death in emergency rooms. Early diagnosis of hemorrhagic shock makes it possible for physicians to treat patients successfully. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to select an optimal survival prediction model using physiological parameters for the two analyzed periods: two and five minutes before and after the bleeding end. We obtained heart rates, mean arterial pressures, respiration rates and temperatures from 45 rats. These physiological parameters were used for the training and testing data sets of survival prediction models using an artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). We applied a 5-fold cross validation method to avoid over-fitting and to select the optimal survival prediction model. In conclusion, SVM model showed slightly better accuracy than ANN model for survival prediction during the entire analysis period.

• Genomics & Informatics
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.23.1-23.9
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• 2022

A survival prediction model has recently been developed to evaluate the prognosis of resected nonmetastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma based on a Cox model using two nationwide databases: Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP). In this study, we applied two machine learning methods-random survival forests (RSF) and support vector machines (SVM)-for survival analysis and compared their prediction performance using the SEER and KOTUS-BP datasets. Three schemes were used for model development and evaluation. First, we utilized data from SEER for model development and used data from KOTUS-BP for external evaluation. Second, these two datasets were swapped by taking data from KOTUS-BP for model development and data from SEER for external evaluation. Finally, we mixed these two datasets half and half and utilized the mixed datasets for model development and validation. We used 9,624 patients from SEER and 3,281 patients from KOTUS-BP to construct a prediction model with seven covariates: age, sex, histologic differentiation, adjuvant treatment, resection margin status, and the American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th edition T-stage and N-stage. Comparing the three schemes, the performance of the Cox model, RSF, and SVM was better when using the mixed datasets than when using the unmixed datasets. When using the mixed datasets, the C-index, 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year time-dependent areas under the curve for the Cox model were 0.644, 0.698, 0.680, and 0.687, respectively. The Cox model performed slightly better than RSF and SVM.

• Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.11-15
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• 2018

Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer related death among women. So prediction of overall survival status is important into decided in adjuvant treatment. Deep belief network is a kind of artificial intelligence (AI). We intended to construct prediction model by deep belief network using associated clinicopathologic factors. 103881 cases were found in the Korean Breast Cancer Registry. After preprocessing of data, a total of 15733 cases were enrolled in this study. The median follow-up period was 82.4 months. In univariate analysis for overall survival (OS), the patients with advanced AJCC stage showed relatively high HR (HR=1.216 95% CI: 0.011-289.331, p=0.001). Based on results of univariate and multivariate analysis, input variables for learning model included 17 variables associated with overall survival rate. output was presented in one of two states: event or cencored. Individual sensitivity of training set and test set for predicting overall survival status were 89.6% and 91.2% respectively. And specificity of that were 49.4% and 48.9% respectively. So the accuracy of our study for predicting overall survival status was 82.78%. Prediction model based on Deep belief network appears to be effective in predicting overall survival status and, in particular, is expected to be applicable to decide on adjuvant treatment after surgical treatment.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.283-290
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• 2014

In the flat panel display industry, to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production, the scheduler and dispatching systems are major production management systems which control the order of facility production and the distribution of WIP (Work In Process). Especially the delivery time is a key factor of the dispatching system for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors of the delivery time and to build the delivery time forecasting model. To select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the mean square error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the statistics prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing the delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

• Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.132-134
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• 2009

Hemorrhagic shock is a common cause of death in emergency rooms. Since the symptoms of hemorrhagic shock occur after shock has considerably progressed, it is difficult to diagnose shock early. The purpose of this study was to improve early diagnosis of hemorrhagic shock using a survival prediction model in rats. We measured ECG, blood pressure, respiration and temperature in 45 Sprague-Dawley rats, and then obtained a logistic regression equation predicting survival rates. Area under the ROC curves was 0.99. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit chi-square was 0.86(degree of freedom=8, p=0.999). Applying the determined optimal boundary value of 0.25, the accuracy of survival prediction was 94.7%

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• v.22 no.10
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• pp.1697-1707
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• 2021

The recent introduction of various high-dimensional modeling methods, such as radiomics and deep learning, has created a much greater diversity in modeling approaches for survival prediction (or, more generally, time-to-event prediction). The newness of the recent modeling approaches and unfamiliarity with the model outputs may confuse some researchers and practitioners about the evaluation of the performance of such models. Methodological literacy to critically appraise the performance evaluation of the models and, ideally, the ability to conduct such an evaluation would be needed for those who want to develop models or apply them in practice. This article intends to provide intuitive, conceptual, and practical explanations of the statistical methods for evaluating the performance of survival prediction models with minimal usage of mathematical descriptions. It covers from conventional to deep learning methods, and emphasis has been placed on recent modeling approaches. This review article includes straightforward explanations of C indices (Harrell's C index, etc.), time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration plot, other methods for evaluating the calibration performance, and Brier score.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.250-259
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• 2018

Purpose: Previously, missile reliability prediction is based on theoretical failure prediction model. It has shown that the predicted reliability is inadequate to real field data. Although an MTTF based reliability prediction method using real field data has recently been studied to overcome this issue. In this paper, we present a more realistic method, considering MTBF concept, to predict missile reliability. Methods: In this paper we proposed a modified survival model. This model is considering MTBF as its core concept, and failed missiles in the model are to be repaired and redeployed. We compared the modified model (MTBF) and the previous model (MTTF) in terms of fitness against the real failure data. Results: The reliability prediction result of MTBF based model is closer to fields failure data set than that of MTTF based model. Conclusion: The proposed MTBF concept is more fitted to real failure data of missile than MTTF concept. The methodology of this study can be applied to analyze field failure data of other similar missiles.

• Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.148-154
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• 2012

Hemorrhagic shock is a primary cause of deaths resulting from injury in the world. Although many studies have tried to diagnose accurately hemorrhagic shock in the early stage, such attempts were not successful due to compensatory mechanisms of humans. The objective of this study was to construct a survival prediction model of rats in acute hemorrhagic shock using a random forest (RF) model. Heart rate (HR), mean arterial pressure (MAP), respiration rate (RR), lactate concentration (LC), and peripheral perfusion (PP) measured in rats were used as input variables for the RF model and its performance was compared with that of a logistic regression (LR) model. Before constructing the models, we performed 5-fold cross validation for RF variable selection, and forward stepwise variable selection for the LR model to examine which variables were important for the models. For the LR model, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) were 0.83, 0.95, 0.88, and 0.96, respectively. For the RF models, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and AUC were 0.97, 0.95, 0.96, and 0.99, respectively. In conclusion, the RF model was superior to the LR model for survival prediction in the rat model.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2000.10a
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• pp.40-43
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• 2000

In this paper, we investigate how the average survival time of listed companies in the Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) are affected by changes in macro-economic environment and covariate vectors which show peculiar financial characteristics of each company. We also apply the survival analysis approach to the dichotomous firm failure prediction and the results show a similar pattern of forecasting performance using the existing dichotomous prediction techniques. These findings suggest that, when we consider a bankruptcy model under a certain economic event, the survival approach can be a useful alternative to the existing dichotomous prediction methods since the approach provides estimation of average survival time as well as simple binary prediction.

• Korean Journal of Head & Neck Oncology
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.17-24
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• 2022

Background/Objectives: This study analyzed the prognostic significance of clinico-pathologic factors including comprehensive nodal factors in parotid gland cancers (PGCs) patients and constructed a survival prediction model for PGCs patients using machine learning techniques. Materials & Methods: A total of 131 PGCs patients were enrolled in the study. Results: There were 19 cases (14.5%) of lymph nodes (LNs) at the lower neck level and 43 cases (32.8%) involved multiple level LNs metastases. There were 2 cases (1.5%) of metastases to the contralateral LNs. Intraparotid LNs metastasis was observed in 6 cases (4.6%) and extranodal extension (ENE) findings were observed in 35 cases (26.7%). Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) and perineural invasion findings were observed in 42 cases (32.1%) and 49 cases (37.4%), respectively. Machine learning prediction models were constructed using clinico-pathologic factors including comprehensive nodal factors and Decision Tree and Stacking model showed the highest accuracy at 74% and 70% for predicting patient's survival. Conclusion: Lower level LNs metastasis and LNR have important prognostic significance for predicting disease recurrence and survival in PGCs patients. These two factors were used as important features for constructing machine learning prediction model. Our machine learning model could predict PGCs patient's survival with a considerable level of accuracy.