Reliability Prediction Based on Field Failure Data of Guided Missile

필드데이터 기반의 유도탄 신뢰도 예측

  • Seo, Yangwoo (Institute of Guided Weapon, PGM R&D Lab., LIGNEX1) ;
  • Lee, Kyeshin (Institute of Guided Weapon, PGM R&D Lab., LIGNEX1) ;
  • Lee, Younho (Institute of Guided Weapon, PGM R&D Lab., LIGNEX1) ;
  • Kim, Jeyong (Institute of Guided Weapon, PGM R&D Lab., LIGNEX1)
  • 서양우 (LIG넥스원 유도무기1연구소) ;
  • 이계신 (LIG넥스원 유도무기1연구소) ;
  • 이연호 (LIG넥스원 유도무기1연구소) ;
  • 김제용 (LIG넥스원 유도무기1연구소)
  • Received : 2018.08.19
  • Accepted : 2018.09.18
  • Published : 2018.09.25

Abstract

Purpose: Previously, missile reliability prediction is based on theoretical failure prediction model. It has shown that the predicted reliability is inadequate to real field data. Although an MTTF based reliability prediction method using real field data has recently been studied to overcome this issue. In this paper, we present a more realistic method, considering MTBF concept, to predict missile reliability. Methods: In this paper we proposed a modified survival model. This model is considering MTBF as its core concept, and failed missiles in the model are to be repaired and redeployed. We compared the modified model (MTBF) and the previous model (MTTF) in terms of fitness against the real failure data. Results: The reliability prediction result of MTBF based model is closer to fields failure data set than that of MTTF based model. Conclusion: The proposed MTBF concept is more fitted to real failure data of missile than MTTF concept. The methodology of this study can be applied to analyze field failure data of other similar missiles.

Keywords

References

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