• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.43-69
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• 2005

This study provides empirical evidence that the stochastic beta model based on Bayesian analysis outperforms the existing conditional beta model and GARCH model in terms of the estimation accuracy and the explanatory power in the cross-section of stock returns in Korea. Betas estimated by the stochastic beta model explain $30{\sim}50%$ of the cross-sectional variation in stock-returns, whereas other time-varying beta models account for less than 3%. Such a difference in explanatory power across models turns out to come from the fact that the stochastic beta model absorbs the variation due to the market anomalies such as size, BE/ME, and idiosyncratic volatility. These results support the rational asset pricing model in that market anomalies are closely related to the variation of expected returns generated by time-varying betas.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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• v.10B no.7
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• pp.829-836
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• 2003

In this paper, we propose a stochastic model for sentence speech understanding using dictionary and thesaurus. The proposed model extracts words from an input speech or text into a sentence. A computer is sellected category of dictionary database compared the word extracting from the input sentence calculating a probability value to the compare results from stochastic model. At this time, computer read out upper dictionary information from the upper dictionary searching and extracting word compared input sentence caluclating value to the compare results from stochastic model. We compare adding the first and second probability value from the dictionary searching and the upper dictionary searching with threshold probability that we measure the sentence understanding rate. We evaluated the performance of the sentence speech understanding system by applying twenty questions game. As the experiment results, we got sentence speech understanding accuracy of 79.8%. In this case, probability ($\alpha$) of high level word is 0.9 and threshold probability ($\beta$) is 0.38.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.256-272
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• 2017

Extreme rainfall has become more frequent over the Korean peninsula in recent years, causing serious damages. In a changing climate, traditional approaches based on historical records of rainfall and on the stationary assumption can be inadequate and lead to overestimate (or underestimate) the design rainfalls. A main objective of this study is to develop a stochastic disaggregation method of seasonal rainfall to hourly extreme rainfall, and offer a way to derive the nonstationary IDF curves. In this study, we propose a novel approach based on a Four-Parameter Beta (4P-beta) distribution to estimate the nonstationary IDF curves conditioned on the observed (or simulated) seasonal rainfall, which becomes the time-varying upper bound of the 4P beta distribution. Moreover, this study employed a Bayesian framework that provides a better way to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters. The proposed model showed a comparable design rainfall to that of GEV distribution under the stationary assumption. As a nonstationary rainfall frequency model, the proposed model can effectively translate the seasonal variation into the sub-daily extreme rainfall.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.307-329
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• 2013

The bending problem of Euler-Bernoulli discontinuous beams is dealt with, in which the discontinuities are due to the loads and eventually to essential constrains applied along the beam axis. In particular, the loads are modelled as random delta-correlated processes acting along the beam axis, while the ulterior eventual discontinuities are produced by the presence of external rollers applied along the beam axis. This kind of structural model can be considered in the static study of bridge beams. In the present work the exact expression of the response quantities are given in terms of means and variances, thanks to the use of the stochastic analysis rules and to the use of the generalized functions. The knowledge of the means and the variances of the internal forces implies the possibility of applying the reliability ${\beta}$-method for verifying the beam.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.105-117
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• 2001

This paper models supply uncertainty in the dynamic Newsboy problem context. The system consists of one supplier and one retailer who places an order to the supplier every period to meet stochastic demand. Supply uncertainty is modeled as the uncertainty in quantities delivered by the supplier. That is, the supplier delivers exactly the amount ordered by the retailer with probability of $\beta$ and the amount minus K with probability of (1-$\beta$). We formulate the problem as a dynamic programming problem and prove that retailer’s optimal replenishment policy is a stationary base-stock policy. Through a numerical study, we found that the cost increase due to supply uncertainty is significant and that the costs increase more rapidly as supply uncertainty increases. We also identified the effects of various system parameters. One of the interesting results is that as retailer’s demand uncertainty, the other uncertainty in our model, increases, the cost increase due to supply uncertainty becomes less significant.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.51-58
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• 1991

This paper presents a single-echelon, single item, stochastic lead time and static demand inventory model for situations in which, during the stockout period, a fraction ${\beta}$ of the demand is backordered and the remaining fraction $(1-{\beta})$ is lost. In this situations, an objective function representing the average annual cost of inventory system is obtained by defining a time-proportional backorder cost and a fixed penalty cost per unit lost. The optimal operating policy variables minimizing the average annual cost are calculated iteratively. At the extremet ${\beta}=1$, the model presented reduces to the usual backorder case. A numerical example is solved to illustrate the algorithm developed.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.191-213
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• 2023

Unit distributions are frequently used in probability theory and statistics to depict meaningful variables having values between zero and one. Using convenient transformation, the unit inverse exponentiated weibull (UIEW) distribution, which is equally useful for modelling data on the unit interval, is proposed in this study. Quantile function, moments, incomplete moments, uncertainty measures, stochastic ordering, and stress-strength reliability are among the statistical properties provided for this distribution. To estimate the parameters associated to the recommended distribution, well-known estimation techniques including maximum likelihood, maximum product of spacings, least squares, weighted least squares, Cramer von Mises, Anderson-Darling, and Bayesian are utilised. Using simulated data, we compare how well the various estimators perform. According to the simulated outputs, the maximum product of spacing estimates has lower values of accuracy measures than alternative estimates in majority of situations. For two real datasets, the proposed model outperforms the beta, Kumaraswamy, unit Gompartz, unit Lomax and complementary unit weibull distributions based on various comparative indicators.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.651-658
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• 2013

For the marginal model and generalized estimating equations (GEE) method there is important full covariates conditional mean (FCCM) assumption which is pointed out by Pepe and Anderson (1994). With longitudinal data with time-varying stochastic covariates, this assumption may not necessarily hold. If this assumption is violated, the biased estimates of regression coefficients may result. But if a diagonal working correlation matrix is used, irrespective of whether the assumption is violated, the resulting estimates are (nearly) unbiased (Pan et al., 2000).The quadratic inference functions (QIF) method proposed by Qu et al. (2000) is the method based on generalized method of moment (GMM) using GEE. The QIF yields a substantial improvement in efficiency for the estimator of ${\beta}$ when the working correlation is misspecified, and equal efficiency to the GEE when the working correlation is correct (Qu et al., 2000).In this paper, we interest in whether the QIF can improve the results of the GEE method in the case of FCCM is violated. We show that the QIF with exchangeable and AR(1) working correlation matrix cannot be consistent and asymptotically normal in this case. Also it may not be efficient than GEE with independence working correlation. Our simulation studies verify the result.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.311-321
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• 2002

Transfer function model(TFM) capturings conditional heteroscedastic pattern is introduced to analyze stochastic regression relationship between the two time series. Nonlinear ARCH concept is incorporated into the TFM via threshold ARCH and beta- ARCH models. Steps for statistical analysis of the proposed model are explained along the lines of the Box & Jenkins(1976, ch. 10). For illustration, dynamic analysis between KOSPI and NASDAQ is conducted from which it is seen that threshold ARCH performs the best.

• Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.127-132
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• 2008

This project follows the heterogeneous agent market segmented model of Landon-Lane and Occhino (2007) with using Korean data, M1 and GDP deflator from 1882:I to 2007:II. This paper estimates parameters with Monte Carlo Markov Chain. The fraction of traders, ${\lambda}$, in Korea is 15.64%. The quarterly preferences discount factor's, ${\beta}$, posterior mean is 0.9922. The posterior mean of the inverse of the elasticity of the labor supply to the real wage, ${\varphi}$, is 0.0316. The elasticity of the labor supply to the real wage has a very large value. By Hansen (1985) and Christiano and Eichenbaum (1992) and Cooley and Hansen (1989), models having large elasticity of the aggregate labor supply better match macroeconomic data.