• 재무관리연구
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.43-69
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• 2005

본 논문은 한국 주식시장에서 CAPM 베타의 시간에 따른 변동패턴을 설명하는데 있어서 베이지안 분석기법에 기반을 둔 확률베타모형(stochastic be model)이 기존의 조건부 베타모형이나 이변량 GARCH(1,1)모형보다 추정의 정확도나 베타의 설명력 측면에서 더 우월하다는 실증적 증거를 보여주었다. 확률베타모형으로 추정한 베타는 주식수익률의 횡단면 변동의 $30{\sim}50%$를 설명하는 반면, 다른 시변베타모형은 3% 이하의 설명력에 그쳤다. 이렇게 확률베타모형에서 추정된 베타의 높은 설명력은 흔히 시장이상현상으로 받아들여지고 있는 기업규모효과나 장부가/시가비율효과, 고유변동성효과들을 대부분 흡수하는 것으로 나타났다. 이것은 시장이상 현상들이 베타 참값의 변동과 밀접하게 관련되어 있으며, 기대수익률 변동과 깊은 관련이 있다는 합리적 자산가격결정의 입장을 지지하는 것으로 해석된다.

• 정보처리학회논문지B
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• 제10B권7호
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• pp.829-836
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• 2003

본 논문에서는 사전과 시소러스를 이용하여 문장음성 이해를 위한 확률모델을 제안한다. 제안한 확률모델은 입력되는 음성과 텍스트 문장에서 단어를 추출한다. 컴퓨터가 선택한 카테고리의 사전 DB와 입력된 문장에서 추출된 단어와 비교하고 확률모델로부터 확률값을 얻는다. 이때 컴퓨터로부터 상위어 정보를 알아내고 상위어 사전을 검색하여 단어를 추출하고 입력된 단어와 확률 모델을 비교하여 결과값을 얻는다. 사전과 상위어 사전으로부터 얻은 두개의 확률값을 더하고 그 값을 미리 정해진 임계값과 비교하여 문장의 이해도를 측정한다. 이와 같은 이해 시스템을 스무고개 게임에 적용시켜 그 성능을 평가 하였다. 상위어 확률 값($\alpha$)이 0.9이고 임계값 ($\beta$)은 0.38일 때 문장음성 이해의 정확도는 79.8%였다.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.256-272
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• 2017

Extreme rainfall has become more frequent over the Korean peninsula in recent years, causing serious damages. In a changing climate, traditional approaches based on historical records of rainfall and on the stationary assumption can be inadequate and lead to overestimate (or underestimate) the design rainfalls. A main objective of this study is to develop a stochastic disaggregation method of seasonal rainfall to hourly extreme rainfall, and offer a way to derive the nonstationary IDF curves. In this study, we propose a novel approach based on a Four-Parameter Beta (4P-beta) distribution to estimate the nonstationary IDF curves conditioned on the observed (or simulated) seasonal rainfall, which becomes the time-varying upper bound of the 4P beta distribution. Moreover, this study employed a Bayesian framework that provides a better way to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters. The proposed model showed a comparable design rainfall to that of GEV distribution under the stationary assumption. As a nonstationary rainfall frequency model, the proposed model can effectively translate the seasonal variation into the sub-daily extreme rainfall.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.307-329
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• 2013

The bending problem of Euler-Bernoulli discontinuous beams is dealt with, in which the discontinuities are due to the loads and eventually to essential constrains applied along the beam axis. In particular, the loads are modelled as random delta-correlated processes acting along the beam axis, while the ulterior eventual discontinuities are produced by the presence of external rollers applied along the beam axis. This kind of structural model can be considered in the static study of bridge beams. In the present work the exact expression of the response quantities are given in terms of means and variances, thanks to the use of the stochastic analysis rules and to the use of the generalized functions. The knowledge of the means and the variances of the internal forces implies the possibility of applying the reliability ${\beta}$-method for verifying the beam.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.105-117
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• 2001

This paper models supply uncertainty in the dynamic Newsboy problem context. The system consists of one supplier and one retailer who places an order to the supplier every period to meet stochastic demand. Supply uncertainty is modeled as the uncertainty in quantities delivered by the supplier. That is, the supplier delivers exactly the amount ordered by the retailer with probability of $\beta$ and the amount minus K with probability of (1-$\beta$). We formulate the problem as a dynamic programming problem and prove that retailer’s optimal replenishment policy is a stationary base-stock policy. Through a numerical study, we found that the cost increase due to supply uncertainty is significant and that the costs increase more rapidly as supply uncertainty increases. We also identified the effects of various system parameters. One of the interesting results is that as retailer’s demand uncertainty, the other uncertainty in our model, increases, the cost increase due to supply uncertainty becomes less significant.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.51-58
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• 1991

This paper presents a single-echelon, single item, stochastic lead time and static demand inventory model for situations in which, during the stockout period, a fraction ${\beta}$ of the demand is backordered and the remaining fraction $(1-{\beta})$ is lost. In this situations, an objective function representing the average annual cost of inventory system is obtained by defining a time-proportional backorder cost and a fixed penalty cost per unit lost. The optimal operating policy variables minimizing the average annual cost are calculated iteratively. At the extremet ${\beta}=1$, the model presented reduces to the usual backorder case. A numerical example is solved to illustrate the algorithm developed.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.191-213
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• 2023

Unit distributions are frequently used in probability theory and statistics to depict meaningful variables having values between zero and one. Using convenient transformation, the unit inverse exponentiated weibull (UIEW) distribution, which is equally useful for modelling data on the unit interval, is proposed in this study. Quantile function, moments, incomplete moments, uncertainty measures, stochastic ordering, and stress-strength reliability are among the statistical properties provided for this distribution. To estimate the parameters associated to the recommended distribution, well-known estimation techniques including maximum likelihood, maximum product of spacings, least squares, weighted least squares, Cramer von Mises, Anderson-Darling, and Bayesian are utilised. Using simulated data, we compare how well the various estimators perform. According to the simulated outputs, the maximum product of spacing estimates has lower values of accuracy measures than alternative estimates in majority of situations. For two real datasets, the proposed model outperforms the beta, Kumaraswamy, unit Gompartz, unit Lomax and complementary unit weibull distributions based on various comparative indicators.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.651-658
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• 2013

For the marginal model and generalized estimating equations (GEE) method there is important full covariates conditional mean (FCCM) assumption which is pointed out by Pepe and Anderson (1994). With longitudinal data with time-varying stochastic covariates, this assumption may not necessarily hold. If this assumption is violated, the biased estimates of regression coefficients may result. But if a diagonal working correlation matrix is used, irrespective of whether the assumption is violated, the resulting estimates are (nearly) unbiased (Pan et al., 2000).The quadratic inference functions (QIF) method proposed by Qu et al. (2000) is the method based on generalized method of moment (GMM) using GEE. The QIF yields a substantial improvement in efficiency for the estimator of ${\beta}$ when the working correlation is misspecified, and equal efficiency to the GEE when the working correlation is correct (Qu et al., 2000).In this paper, we interest in whether the QIF can improve the results of the GEE method in the case of FCCM is violated. We show that the QIF with exchangeable and AR(1) working correlation matrix cannot be consistent and asymptotically normal in this case. Also it may not be efficient than GEE with independence working correlation. Our simulation studies verify the result.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.311-321
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• 2002

시계열 자료의 전이함수분석에 있어서 조건부 이분산성을 도입하고 기존의 선형 이분산모형인 Engle(1982)의 ARCH 모형과 더불어 비선형 모형인 베타-ARCH 및 분계점-ARCH모형을 고려하였다. 모형적합절차를 간략히 소개하였으며 제안된 모형을 미국 나스닥지수와 국내 종합주가지수에 적용시켜본 결과 비선형 ARCH 모형이 우수함을 알 수 있었다.

• 통합자연과학논문집
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.127-132
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• 2008

This project follows the heterogeneous agent market segmented model of Landon-Lane and Occhino (2007) with using Korean data, M1 and GDP deflator from 1882:I to 2007:II. This paper estimates parameters with Monte Carlo Markov Chain. The fraction of traders, ${\lambda}$, in Korea is 15.64%. The quarterly preferences discount factor's, ${\beta}$, posterior mean is 0.9922. The posterior mean of the inverse of the elasticity of the labor supply to the real wage, ${\varphi}$, is 0.0316. The elasticity of the labor supply to the real wage has a very large value. By Hansen (1985) and Christiano and Eichenbaum (1992) and Cooley and Hansen (1989), models having large elasticity of the aggregate labor supply better match macroeconomic data.