• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical estimation

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A Study on the Rationality of Wives' Decision Making in Purchasing - comparisons, Between Working and nonworking Wives- (도시주부의 購買의사결정 합리성에 관한 연구 -취업주부와 비취업주부의 비교분석-)

  • Shim, Sook;Kim, Kee-Ok
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.109-125
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    • 1987
  • Previous studies show that working wives in the market contribute to the family economy that affects the family member's behaviors as consumers. Accordingly, the consumer behavior among working wives would be differ form that among nonworking wives. As the number of working wives in the market is increasing, this study focuses on the estimation of the degree of rationality in purchasing decision making among wives in relation to their working status. Therefore, this study attempts to construct an rationality index of a purchasing decision making both at a high and a low involvement situation by working and nonworking wives, and analyzes the differences in the results of the two groups. This study also examines how the rationality indices vary with the selected socioeconomic variables. The data are obtained from self-administered questionnaires from a sample of 217 working and 191 nonworking wives at Seoul and Seongnam in 1986. The statistical methods used in this study are Factor Analysis, Multiple Regression, and Analysis of Variances. The major findings of this study are as follows; 1) The mean value of the rationality index among nonworking wives is higher than that among working wives. Under a high involvement situation, the mean value of the rationality index among working wives is negative. Therefore, it is likely that nonworking wives make purchasing decisions more rationally than working wives. 2) The higher the degree of wive's education, the more rational the purchasing decision making. Under a low involvement situation, the higher the monthly family income, the more rational the purchasing decision making . under the same situation, the shorter the duration of marriage , the more rational the purchasing decision making. 3) Under a low involvement situation, the rationality indices of working wives vary with their occupations. The rationality indices among those in selling and service jobs are lower than those among those in professional jobs. 4) The impact of the selected socio-economic variables on the degree of the rationality in purchasing decision making differs depending on whether the wife is working or not. Under a low involvement situation, the positive impact of the monthly family income on the rationality in purchasing decision making is stronger among nonworking wives than among working wives. Under the same situation, the negative impact of the duration of marriage on the rationality is stronger among nonworking wives than among working wives.

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A Case Study on Quantifying Uncertainties of Geotechnical Random Variables (지반 확률변수의 불확실성 정량화에 관한 사례연구)

  • Han, Sang-Hyun;Yea, Geu-Guwen;Kim, Hong-Yeon
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2012
  • Probabilistic design methods have been used as a design standard in Korea and abroad for achieving reasonable design by considering the statistical uncertainties of soil properties. In this study, the following techniques for reflecting geotechnical uncertainty are analyzed: quantification of the uncertainties of geotechnical random variables, and consideration of economic feasibility in design by minimizing the uncertainties related to the number of samples. To quantify the uncertainties, the techniques were applied to soil properties obtained from samples collected and tested in the field. The results showed an underestimation of the standard deviation by the 3-sigma approach in comparison with calculations using data from the samples. This finding indicates that economical design is possible in terms of probability. However, when compared with the Bayesian approach, which does not consider the number of samples, variability in the 3-sigma approach is underestimated for some variables. This finding also indicates a safety issue, whereas the number of samples based on the Bayesian approach showed the lowest variance. The variance of the probability density function showed a marked decrease with increasing number of samples, to converge at a certain level when the number exceeds 25. Of note, the estimation of values is more reliable for random variables having low variability, such as soil unit weight, and can be obtained with a small number of samples.

A Study on Calculation of Air Pollutants Emission Factors for Construction Equipment (건설기게의 대기오염물질 배출계수 산정을 위한 연구)

  • lim, Jae-Hyun;Jung, Sung-Woon;Lee, Tae-Woo;Kim, Jong-Choon;Seo, Chung-Youl;Ryu, Jung-Ho;Hwang, Jin-Woo;Kim, Sun-Moon;Eom, Dong-Sup
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.188-195
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    • 2009
  • Generally. mobile sources of air pollution were classified in on-road and non-road. Due to increased registration number of construction equipment in Korea. updated emission factors for non-road mobile sources, such as construction machinery. should be developed. NONROAD model of U.S. EPA already has introduced transient adjustment factors and sulfur adjustment factors for emission factors of diesel powered engine. In addition to this. European Environment Agency (EEA) has proposed emission factors for off-road machinery including several types of construction equipment. In this study. six types of construction equipment, such as excavator. forklift, loader, crane, roller and bulldozer, were studied to estimate emission factors based on total registration status in Korea. Total 445 construction equipments between 2004 and 2007 model year were tested with KC1-8 mode and air pollutants (CO, THC, $NO_x$, and PM) were measured. After statistical estimation and calculation, emission factors for CO, THC, $NO_x$, and PM for excavator, forklift, loader, crane, roller and bulldozer were provided and compared with previous emission factors. Moreover, updated emission factors for six types of construction equipment in this study were verified after comparison with emission factors of U.S. EPA. Finally, estimated emission amounts of four air pollutants were suggested according to six types of construction equipment.

Non-stationary Frequency Analysis with Climate Variability using Conditional Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (기후변동을 고려한 조건부 GEV 분포를 이용한 비정상성 빈도분석)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Lee, Jung-Ki;Kim, Hung-Soo;Lee, Jin-Won
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.499-514
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    • 2011
  • An underlying assumption of traditional hydrologic frequency analysis is that climate, and hence the frequency of hydrologic events, is stationary, or unchanging over time. Under stationary conditions, the distribution of the variable of interest is invariant to temporal translation. Water resources infrastructure planning and design, such as dams, levees, canals, bridges, and culverts, relies on an understanding of past conditions and projection of future conditions. But, Water managers have always known our world is inherently non-stationary, and they routinely deal with this in management and planning. The aim of this paper is to give a brief introduction to non-stationary extreme value analysis methods. In this paper, a non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis approach is introduced in order to determine probability rainfall consider changing climate. The non-stationary statistical approach is based on the conditional Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation. This method are applied to the annual maximum 24 hours-rainfall. The results show that the non-stationary GEV approach is suitable for determining probability rainfall for changing climate, sucha sa trend, Moreover, Non-stationary frequency analyzed using SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) of ENSO(El Nino Southern Oscillation).

Comparison between the Road-based and the Parcel-based Address Coordinates for Urban Air Pollution Estimation - A Case Study of Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, Korea - (도심대기오염추정을 위한 도로명주소좌표와 지번주소좌표의 비교 - 서울 영등포 지역의 사례연구 -)

  • Park, Jinwoo;Choi, Jinmu;Hong, Seong-Yun
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.169-181
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    • 2016
  • The address system in Korea was changed to the road-based system in 2014, but the current address coordinates are still largely based on the old, parcel-based system. Compared to the parcel-based address system that defines the center of a parcel as its coordinates, the road-based system locates the coordinates at a certain distance away from the road on which the parcel fronts. The difference in coordinates between these two systems is small, but it can be crucial for micro-level modelling. In order to assess the impact of the discrepancy between the two address systems, this study measured the degree of air pollution exposure at two different locations, the road-based address coordinates and the parcel-based address coordinates, for each of 252 buildings in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul. The air pollution values were estimated using a microscopic air pollution dispersion model, CALINE4, and t-tests and F-tests were conducted to evaluate statistical significance on the observed difference. The results showed a considerable difference in the level of air pollution exposure between the two address systems, suggesting that the on-going use of the parcel-based address coordinates could cause potentially significant errors in micro-level analysis.

Estimation of Rice Yield by Province in South Korea based on Meteorological Variables (기상자료를 이용한 남한지역 도별 쌀 생산량 추정)

  • Hur, Jina;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Kim, Yongseok;Kang, Kee-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.599-605
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    • 2019
  • Rice yield (kg 10a-1) in South Korea was estimated by meteorological variables that are influential factors in crop growth. This study investigated the possibility of anticipating the rice yield variability using a simple but an efficient statistical method, a multiple linear regression analysis, on the basis of the annual variation of meteorological variables. Due to heterogeneous environmental conditions by region, the yearly rice yield was assessed and validated for each province in South Korea. The monthly mean meteorological data for the period 1986-2018 (33 years) from 61 weather stations provided by Korean Meteorological Administration was used as the independent variable in the regression analysis. An 11-fold (leave-three-out) cross-validation was performed to check the accuracy of this method estimating rice yield at each province. This result demonstrated that temporal variation of rice yield by province in South Korea can be properly estimated using such concise procedure in terms of correlation coefficient (0.7, not significant). Furthermore, the estimated rice yield well captured spatial features of observation with mean bias of 0.7 kg 10a-1 (0.15%). This method may offer useful information on rice yield by province in advance as long as accurate agro-meteorological forecasts are timely obtained from climate models.

Estimation on Affecting Factors and Contribution Rate for Air Permeability of Sawdust as Bulking Agent on Composting (퇴비화 첨가재인 톱밥의 공기투과성에 미치는 영향요인 및 기여도 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Byung Tae
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.52-62
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    • 2015
  • This study estimated the contribution rates of inlet air flow, moisture content, air-filled porosity and particle size on the total pressure drop for the sawdust used as the bulking agent in the composting. The statistical model for pressure drop including the affecting factors was proposed.($R^2=0.998{\sim}0.950$) While the laminar air flow(v) and particle size(SIZE*v) had the positive relations to the total pressure drop, the turbulent air flow($v^2$), moisture content(MC*v) and air-filled porosity(AFP*v) had the negative relations. Total pressure drop sharply increased with increasing of the inlet air flow. And the most significant factors affecting to total pressure drop were the particle size(SIZE*v) as positive factor and air-filled porosity(AFP*v) as negative factor. The contribution rate to total pressure drop by the particle size(SIZE*v) was continuously increased with increasing of the inlet air flow, but the contribution rate by air-filled porosity(AFP*v) was decreased. And total pressure drop was little changed even though the increasing of moisture content above the range of dry moisture content 0.25. The contribution rates of affecting factors had the different tendencies with increasing of the moisture content, especially in the negative factors as air-filled porosity(AFP*v) and moisture content(MC*v). For effective composting process, it is preferable to select the sawdust with higher air-filled porosity as bulking agent to enhance the air permeability.

Specimen Size Effect in Estimation of Rut Resistance based on Deformation Strength (공시체 크기가 변형강도를 이용한 소성변형 추정에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Moon-Sup;Choi, Sun-Ju;Doh, Young-Soo;Kim, Kwang-Woo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.6 no.2 s.20
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2004
  • This study dealt with size effect of specimen in measuring deformation strength and estimating rut resistance of asphalt concretes under static loading using Kim test. Two aggregates, a normal asphalt (pen 60-80) and 6 polymer-modified asphalt (PMA) binders were used for preparation of 14 dense-graded mixtures. Mixtures were prepared based on optimum asphalt content by Marshall compactor (S= 10cm) and gyratory compactor (S= 15cm) for Kim test and for wheel tracking test. In statistical analysis by general linear model (GLM) procedure of SAS, the diameter of specimen was found not to be a significant factor that affect the Kim test result. Therefore, it was found that either loom-diameter or 15cm-diameter of specimen gave no significant difference in deformation strength ($K_D$) values in Kim test for any aggregate mixture. However, the thickness of specimen was found to be a significant factor in determining $K_D$. It is estimated that $K_D$ is a function of y, vertical deformation, and y has something to do with thickness of specimen. Therefore, it is suggested that the thickness of specimen should not be higher than 6.6cm, and the correction factor depending on the thickness value should be developed in the future study.

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Origin and destination matrix estimation using Toll Collecting System and AADT data (관측 TCS data 및 AADT 교통량을 이용한 기종점 교통량 보정에 관한 연구)

  • 이승재;장현호;김종형;변상철;이헌주;최도혁
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2001
  • In the transportation planning process, origin and destination(O-D) trip matrix is one of the most important elements. There have been developments and applications of the methodology to adjust old matrices using link traffic counts. Commonly, the accuracy of an adjusted O-D matrix depends very much on the reliability of the input data such as the numbers and locations of traffic counting points in the road network. In the real application of the methodology, decisions on the numbers and locations of traffic counting points are one of the difficult problems, because usually as networks become bigger, the numbers of traffic counting points are required more. Therefore, this paper investigates these issues as an experiment using a nationwide network in Korea. We have compared and contrasted the set of link flows assigned by the old and the adjusted O-D matrices with the set of observed link flows. It has been analyzed by increasing the number of the traffic counting points on the experimental road network. As a result of these analyses, we can see an optimal set of the number of counting links through statistical analysis, which are approximately ten percentages of the total link numbers. In addition, the results show that the discrepancies between the old and the adjusted matrices in terms of the trip length frequency distributions and the assigned and the counted link flows are minimized using the optimal set of the counted links.

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Count Data Model for The Estimation of Bus Ridership (Focusing on Commuters and Students in Seoul) (가산자료모형(Count Data Model)을 이용한 버스이용횟수추정에 관한 연구 (서울시 통근.통학자를 대상으로))

  • 문진수;김순관;임강원
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.123-135
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    • 1999
  • The rapid increase of Passenger cars which is caused by the discomfort of Public transit and the Preference of automobiles is the major factor of increasing traffic congestions in Seoul With the point that leading the automobilists to the Public transit can be the most important Policy to ease these traffic congestions, this study focuses on the behavioral aspects of company employees and university students and investigates factors influencing bus ridership. To be brief, by estimating bus ridership through count models, this study investigates factors which influence bus ridership and elicits Political suggestions which lead automobilists to Public transit. The Purpose in this study is the application of appropriate count data model. The count data models have been widely applied to the economic area from the middle of the 1980s and to transportation aspect mainly in the foreign countries from the latter half of the 1980s. Even though a few studies in this country employed count data model to count data. all of them were Poisson regression models without suitable tests for the importance of the model specification. In the end, as the result of statistical test, negative binomial regression model which is suitable for overdispersed data was found to be appropriate for the data of weekly bus ridership. To emphasize the importance of model specification, both of poisson regression model and negative binomial regression model were estimated and the results were compared.

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