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http://dx.doi.org/10.17663/JWR.2011.13.3.499

Non-stationary Frequency Analysis with Climate Variability using Conditional Generalized Extreme Value Distribution  

Kim, Byung-Sik (강원대학교 도시환경방재전공)
Lee, Jung-Ki (인하대학교 사회기반시스템공학부)
Kim, Hung-Soo (인하대학교 사회기반시스템공학부)
Lee, Jin-Won (한국건설기술연구원 수자원환경연구본부 하천해안항만연구실)
Publication Information
Journal of Wetlands Research / v.13, no.3, 2011 , pp. 499-514 More about this Journal
Abstract
An underlying assumption of traditional hydrologic frequency analysis is that climate, and hence the frequency of hydrologic events, is stationary, or unchanging over time. Under stationary conditions, the distribution of the variable of interest is invariant to temporal translation. Water resources infrastructure planning and design, such as dams, levees, canals, bridges, and culverts, relies on an understanding of past conditions and projection of future conditions. But, Water managers have always known our world is inherently non-stationary, and they routinely deal with this in management and planning. The aim of this paper is to give a brief introduction to non-stationary extreme value analysis methods. In this paper, a non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis approach is introduced in order to determine probability rainfall consider changing climate. The non-stationary statistical approach is based on the conditional Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation. This method are applied to the annual maximum 24 hours-rainfall. The results show that the non-stationary GEV approach is suitable for determining probability rainfall for changing climate, sucha sa trend, Moreover, Non-stationary frequency analyzed using SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) of ENSO(El Nino Southern Oscillation).
Keywords
non-stationary frequency analysis; GEV distribution; changing climate; ENSO;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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