• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.73-96
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• 2014

The purpose of this research is to evaluate a short-term export demand forecasting model reflecting individual passenger vehicle brands and market characteristics by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models that are based on multivariate time-series model. The short-term export demand forecasting model was created by discerning theoretical potential factors that affect the short-term export demand of individual passenger vehicle brands. Quarterly short-term export demand forecasting model for two Korean small vehicle brands (Accent and Avante) were created by using VAR model. Predictive value at t+1 quarter calculated with the forecasting models for each passenger vehicle brand and the actual amount of sales were compared and evaluated by altering subject period by one quarter. As a result, RMSE % of Accent and Avante was 4.3% and 20.0% respectively. They amount to 3.9 days for Accent and 18.4 days for Avante when calculated per daily sales amount. This shows that the short-term export demand forecasting model of this research is highly usable in terms of prediction and consistency.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.64-71
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• 2017

Considering the volatility, intermittent and random of photovoltaic (PV) generation systems, accurate forecasting of PV power output is important for the grid scheduling and energy management. In order to improve the accuracy of short-term power forecasting of PV systems, this paper proposes a prediction model based on environmental factors and support vector machine optimized by genetic algorithm (GA-SVM). In order to improve the prediction accuracy of this model, weather conditions are divided into three types, and the gray correlation coefficient algorithm is used to find out a similar day of the predicted day. To avoid parameters optimization into local optima, this paper uses genetic algorithm to optimize SVM parameters. Example verification shows that the prediction accuracy in three types of weather will remain at between 10% -15% and the short-term PV power forecasting model proposed is effective and promising.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers Conference
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• 2008.10a
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• pp.225-228
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• 2008

The electricity supply and demand to be stable to a system link increase of the variance power supply and operation are requested in jeju Island electricity system. A short-term Load forecasting which uses the characteristic of the Load is essential consequently. We use the interrelationship of the electricity Load and change of a summertime temperature and data refining in the paper. We presented a short-term Load forecasting algorithm of jeju Island and used the correlation coefficient to the criteria of the refining. We used each temperature area data to be refined and forecasted a short-term Load to an exponential smoothing method.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2011.07a
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• pp.590-591
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• 2011

This paper proposes a short-term load forecasting by using a temperature and load pattern. The forecasting model that represents the relations between load and temperature which get a numeral expected temperature based on the past temperature was constructed. Case studies were applied to load forecasting for 2009 data, and the results show its appropriate accuracy.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.64 no.8
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• pp.1137-1144
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• 2015

Accurate and robust load forecasting model is very important in power system operation. In case of short-term electric load forecasting, its result is offered as an standard to decide a price of electricity and also can be used shaving peak. For this reason, various models have been developed to improve forecasting accuracy. In order to achieve accurate forecasting result for summer season, this paper proposes a forecasting model using corrected effective temperature based on Heat Index and CDH data as inputs. To do so, we establish polynomial that expressing relationship among CDH, load, temperature. After that, we estimate parameters that is multiplied to each of the terms using PSO algorithm. The forecasting results are compared to Holt-Winters and Artificial Neural Network. Proposing method shows more accurate by 1.018%, 0.269%, 0.132% than comparison groups, respectively.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.8-14
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• 1999

This paper presents the methods of short-term load forecasting Kohonen neural networks and back-propagation neural networks. First, historical load data is divided into 5 patterns for the each seasonal data using Kohonen neural networks and using these results, load forecasting neural network is used for next day hourly load forecasting. Next day hourly load of weekdays and weekend except holidays are forecasted. For load forecasting in summer, max-temperature and min-temperature data as well as historical hourly load date are used as inputs of load forecasting neural networks for a better forecasting accuracy. To show the possibility of the proposed method, it was tested with hourly load data of Korea Electric Power Corporation(1994-95).

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.63 no.4
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• pp.451-454
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• 2014

Short-term load forecasting(STLF) for electric power demand is essential for stable power system operation and efficient power market operation. We improved STLF method by using hourly temperature as an input data. In order to using hourly temperature to STLF algorithm, we calculated temperature-electric power demand sensitivity through past actual data and combined this sensitivity to exponential smoothing method which is one of the STLF method. The proposed method is verified by case study for a week. The result of case study shows that the average percentage errors of the proposed load forecasting method are improved comparing with errors of the previous methods.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.832-837
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• 2015

The group method of data handling (GMDH) algorithm has proven to be a powerful and effective way to extract rules or polynomials from an electric load pattern. However, because it is nonstationary, the load pattern needs to be decomposed using a discrete wavelet transform. In addition, if a load pattern has a complicated curve pattern, GMDH should use a higher polynomial, which requires complex computing and consumes a lot of time. This paper suggests a method for short-term electric load forecasting that uses a wavelet transform and a GMDH algorithm. Case studies with the proposed algorithm were carried out for one-day-ahead forecasting of hourly electric loads using data during the years 2008-2011. To prove the effectiveness of our proposed approach, the results were evaluated and compared with those obtained by Holt-Winters method and artificial neural network. Our suggested method resulted in better performance than either comparison group.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2004.05b
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• pp.709-712
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• 2004

The development of a basin-wide runoff analysis model is to analysis monthly and daily hydrologic runoff components including surface runoff, subsurface runoff, return flow, etc. at key operation station in the targeted basin. h short-term water demand forecasting technology will be developed fatting into account the patterns of municipal, industrial and agricultural water uses. For the development and utilization of runoff analysis model, relevant basin information including historical precipitation and river water stage data, geophysical basin characteristics, and water intake and consumptions needs to be collected and stored into the hydrologic database of Integrated Real-time Water Information System. The well-known SSARR model was selected for the basis of continuous daily runoff model for forecasting short and long-term natural flows.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.2177-2186
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• 2017

The goal of this paper is to provide the specific forecasting steps and to explain how to design the forecasting architecture and training data sets to forecast very short-term wind power when the numerical weather prediction (NWP) is unavailable, and when the sampling periods of the wind power and training data are different. We forecast the very short-term wind power every 15 minutes starting two hours after receiving the most recent measurements up to 40 hours for a total of 38 hours, without using the NWP data but using the historical weather data. Generally, the NWP works as a predictor and can be converted to wind power forecasts through machine learning-based forecasting algorithms. Without the NWP, we can still build the predictor by shifting the historical weather data and apply the machine learning-based algorithms to the shifted weather data. In this process, the sampling intervals of the weather and wind power data are unified. To verify our approaches, we participated in the 2017 wind power forecasting competition held by the European Energy Market conference and ranked sixth. We have shown that the wind power can be accurately forecasted through the data shifting although the NWP is unavailable.