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http://dx.doi.org/10.5370/KIEE.2015.64.8.1137

Short-term Electric Load Forecasting for Summer Season using Temperature Data  

Koo, Bon-gil (Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Pusan National University)
Kim, Hyoung-su (Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Gyeongnam provincial Namhae)
Lee, Heung-seok (Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Pusan National University)
Park, Juneho (Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Pusan National University)
Publication Information
The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers / v.64, no.8, 2015 , pp. 1137-1144 More about this Journal
Abstract
Accurate and robust load forecasting model is very important in power system operation. In case of short-term electric load forecasting, its result is offered as an standard to decide a price of electricity and also can be used shaving peak. For this reason, various models have been developed to improve forecasting accuracy. In order to achieve accurate forecasting result for summer season, this paper proposes a forecasting model using corrected effective temperature based on Heat Index and CDH data as inputs. To do so, we establish polynomial that expressing relationship among CDH, load, temperature. After that, we estimate parameters that is multiplied to each of the terms using PSO algorithm. The forecasting results are compared to Holt-Winters and Artificial Neural Network. Proposing method shows more accurate by 1.018%, 0.269%, 0.132% than comparison groups, respectively.
Keywords
Short-term electric load forecasting; PSO; CDH;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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