• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sequential confidence interval

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Sequential Estimation of variable width confidence interval for the mean

  • Kim, Sung Lai
    • Journal of the Chungcheong Mathematical Society
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2001
  • Let {Xn, n = 1,2,${\cdots}$} be i.i.d. random variables with the only unknown parameters mean ${\mu}$ and variance a ${\sigma}^2$. We consider a sequential confidence interval C1 for the mean with coverage probability 1-${\alpha}$ and expected length of confidence interval $E_{\theta}$(Length of CI)/${\mid}{\mu}{\mid}{\leq}k$ (k : constant) and give some asymptotic properties of the stopping time in various limiting situations.

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Fixed-accuracy confidence interval estimation of P(X > c) for a two-parameter gamma population

  • Zhuang, Yan;Hu, Jun;Zou, Yixuan
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.625-639
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    • 2020
  • The gamma distribution is a flexible right-skewed distribution widely used in many areas, and it is of great interest to estimate the probability of a random variable exceeding a specified value in survival and reliability analysis. Therefore, the study develops a fixed-accuracy confidence interval for P(X > c) when X follows a gamma distribution, Γ(α, β), and c is a preassigned positive constant through: 1) a purely sequential procedure with known shape parameter α and unknown rate parameter β; and 2) a nonparametric purely sequential procedure with both shape and rate parameters unknown. Both procedures enjoy appealing asymptotic first-order efficiency and asymptotic consistency properties. Extensive simulations validate the theoretical findings. Three real-life data examples from health studies and steel manufacturing study are discussed to illustrate the practical applicability of both procedures.

SEQUENTIAL CONFIDENCE INTERVALS WITH ${\beta}-PROTECTION$ IN A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION HAVING EQUAL MEAN AND VARIANCE

  • Kim, Sung-Kyun;Kim, Sung-Lai;Lee, Young-Whan
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.23 no.1_2
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    • pp.479-488
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    • 2007
  • A sequential procedure is proposed in order to construct one-sided confidence intervals for a normal mean with guaranteed coverage probability and ${\beta}-protection$ when the normal mean and variance are identical. First-order asymptotic properties on the sequential sample size are found. The derived results hold with uniformity in the total parameter space or its subsets.

SEQUENTIAL INTERVAL ESTIMATION FOR THE EXPONENTIAL HAZARD RATE WHEN THE LOSS FUNCTION IS STRICTLY CONVEX

  • Jang, Yu Seon
    • Korean Journal of Mathematics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.429-437
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    • 2013
  • Let $X_1$, $X_2$, ${\cdots}$, $X_n$ be independent and identically distributed random variables having common exponential density with unknown mean ${\mu}$. In the sequential confidence interval estimation for the exponential hazard rate ${\theta}=1/{\mu}$, when the loss function is strictly convex, the following stopping rule is proposed with the half length d of prescribed confidence interval $I_n$ for the parameter ${\theta}$; ${\tau}$ = smallest integer n such that $n{\geq}z^2_{{\alpha}/2}\hat{\theta}^2/d^2+2$, where $\hat{\theta}=(n-1)\bar{X}{_n}^{-1}/n$ is the minimum risk estimator for ${\theta}$ and $z_{{\alpha}/2}$ is defined by $P({\mid}Z{\mid}{\leq}{\alpha}/2)=1-{\alpha}({\alpha}{\in}(0,1))$ Z ~ N(0, 1). For the confidence intervals $I_n$ which is required to satisfy $P({\theta}{\in}I_n){\geq}1-{\alpha}$. These estimated intervals $I_{\tau}$ have the asymptotic consistency of the sequential procedure; $$\lim_{d{\rightarrow}0}P({\theta}{\in}I_{\tau})=1-{\alpha}$$, where ${\alpha}{\in}(0,1)$ is given.

Sequential confidence intervals for the mean with $\beta$-protection in a certain parameter space

  • Kim, Sung-Lai
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.113-121
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    • 1990
  • Let ${X_n : n=1,2,\cdots}$ be iid random variables with distribution $P_{\theta}, \theta \in H$ where $H$ is some abstract parameter space. We consider a sequential confidence interval I for the mean $\mu = \mu(\theta)$ of $P_{\theta}$ satisfying $P_{\theta}(\mu \in I) \geq 1-\alpha$ and $P_{\theta}(\mu-\delta(\mu) \in I) \leq \beta$ for all $\theta \in H$ for any given an imprecision real valued function $\delta(\mu) > 0$ and error probabilities $0 < \alpha, \beta < 1$. A one-sided sequential confidence interval is constructed under some restriction of the family {P_{\theta} : \theta \in H}$ and the imprecision function $\delta$. This is extended to the two-sided cases.

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Sequential Confidence Interval with $\beta$-protection for a Linear Function of Two Normal Means

  • Kim, Sung-Lai
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.309-317
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    • 1997
  • A sequential procedure for estimating a linear function of two normal means which satisfies the two requirements, i.e. one is a condition of coverage probability, the other is a condition of $\beta$-protection, is proposed when the variances are unknown and not necessarily equal. We give asymptotic behaviors of the proposed stopping time.

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Validation Technique using variance and confidence interval of metamodel (근사모델의 분산과 신뢰구간을 이용한 모델의 정확도 평가법)

  • Han, In-Sik;Lee, Yong-Bin;Choi, Dong-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.1169-1175
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    • 2008
  • The validation technique is classified with two methods whether to demand of additional experimental points. The method which requires additional experimental points such as RSME is actually impossible in engineering field. Therefore, the method which only use experimented points such as the cross validation technique is only available. But the cross validation not only requires considerable computational costs for generating metamodel each iterations, but also cannot measure quantitatively the fidelity of metamodel. In this research we propose a new validation technique for representative metamodels using an variance of metamodel and confidence interval information. The proposed validation technique computes confidence intervals using a variance information from the metamodel. This technique will have influence on choosing the accurate metamodel, constructing ensemble of each metamodels and advancing effectively sequential sampling technique.

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Temporal Interval Refinement for Point-of-Interest Recommendation (장소 추천을 위한 방문 간격 보정)

  • Kim, Minseok;Lee, Jae-Gil
    • Database Research
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.86-98
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    • 2018
  • Point-of-Interest(POI) recommendation systems suggest the most interesting POIs to users considering the current location and time. With the rapid development of smartphones, internet-of-things, and location-based social networks, it has become feasible to accumulate huge amounts of user POI visits. Therefore, instant recommendation of interesting POIs at a given time is being widely recognized as important. To increase the performance of POI recommendation systems, several studies extracting users' POI sequential preference from POI check-in data, which is intended for implicit feedback, have been suggested. However, when constructing a model utilizing sequential preference, the model encounters possibility of data distortion because of a low number of observed check-ins which is attributed to intensified data sparsity. This paper suggests refinement of temporal intervals based on data confidence. When building a POI recommendation system using temporal intervals to model the POI sequential preference of users, our methodology reduces potential data distortion in the dataset and thus increases the performance of the recommendation system. We verify our model's effectiveness through the evaluation with the Foursquare and Gowalla dataset.

Comparative Study of Confidence Interval Estimators for Coverage Analysis (Coverage 분석을 위한 신뢰구간 추정량에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-Suk;Jeong, Hae-Duck J.
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.11D no.1
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    • pp.219-228
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    • 2004
  • Confidence interval estimators for proportions using normal approximation have been commonly used for coverage analysis of simulation output even though alternative approximate estimators of confidence intervals for proportions were proposed. This is -because the normal approximation was easier to use in practice than the other approximate estimators. Computing technology has no problem with dealing these alternative estimators. Recently, one of the approximation methods for coverage analysis which is based on arcsin transformation has been used for estimating proportion and for controlling the required precision in [12]. In this paper, we compare three approximate interval estimators, based on a normal distribution approximation, an arcsin transformation and an F-distribution approximation, of a single proportion. Three estimators were applied to sequential coverage analysis of steady-state means, in simulations of the M/M/1/$\infty$ and W/D/l/$\infty$ queueing systems on a single processor and multiple processors.