• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sales Estimation

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Fuzzy Regression Model Using Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers for Re-auction Data

  • Kim, Il Kyu;Lee, Woo-Joo;Yoon, Jin Hee;Choi, Seung Hoe
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.72-80
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    • 2016
  • Re-auction happens when a bid winner defaults on the payment without making second in-line purchase declaration even after determining sales permission. This is a process of selling under the court's authority. Re-auctioning contract price of real estate is largely influenced by the real estate business, real estate value, and the number of bidders. This paper is designed to establish a statistical model that deals with the number of bidders participating especially in apartment re-auctioning. For these, diverse factors are taken into consideration, including ratio of minimum sales value from the point of selling to re-auctioning, number of bidders at the time of selling, investment value of the real estate, and so forth. As an attempt to consider ambiguous and vague factors, this paper presents a comparatively vague concept of real estate and bidders as trapezoid fuzzy number. Two different methods based on the least squares estimation are applied to fuzzy regression model in this paper. The first method is the estimating method applying substitution after obtaining the estimators of regression coefficients, and the other method is to estimate directly from the estimating procedure without substitution. These methods are provided in application for re-auction data, and appropriate performance measure is also provided to compare the accuracies.

Re-estimation of Model Parameters in Growth Curves When Adjusting Market Potential and Time of Maximum Sales (성장곡선 예측 모형의 특성치 보정에 따른 매개변수의 재추정)

  • Park, Ju-Seok;Ko, Young-Hyun;Jun, Chi-Hyuck;Lee, Jae-Hwan;Hong, Seung-Pyo;Moon, Hyung-Don
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2003
  • Growth curves are widely used in forecasting the market demand. When there are only a few data points available, the estimated model parameters have a low confidence. In this case, if some expert opinions are available, it would be better for predicting future demand to adjust the model parameters using these information. This paper proposes the methodology for re-estimation of model parameters in growth curves when adjusting market potential and/or time of maximum sales. We also provide the detailed procedures for five growth curves including Bass, Logistic, Gompertz, Weibull and Cumulative Lognormal models. Applications to real data are also included.

Analysis and Estimation of Food and Beverage Sales at Incheon Int'l Airport by ARIMA-Intervention Time Series Model (ARIMA-Intervention 시계열 모형을 이용한 인천국제공항 식음료 매출 분석 및 추정 연구)

  • Yoon, Han-Young;Park, Sung-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.458-468
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    • 2019
  • This research attempted to estimate monthly sales of food and beverage at the passenger terminal of Incheon int'l airport from June of 2015 to December 2020. This paper used ARIMA-Intervention model which can estimate the change of the sales amount suggesting the predicted monthly food and beverage sales revenue. The intervention variable was travel-ban policy against south Korea from P.R. China since July 2016 to December 2017 due to THAAD in south Korea. According to ARIMA, it was found normal predicted sales amount showed the slow growth increase rate until 2020 due to the effect of intervened variable. However, the monthly food sales in July and August 2019 was 20.3 and 21.2 billion KRW respectively. Each amount would increase even more in 2020 and the amount would increase to 21.4 and 22.1 billion KRW. The sales amount in 2019 would be 7.7 and 8.1 billion KRW and climb up 7.9 and 8.2 billion KRW in 2020. It was expected LCC passengers tend to spend more money for F&B at airport due to no meal or drink service of LCC or the paid-in meal and beverage service of LCC. The growth of sales of food and beverate will be accompanied with the growth of LCC according to estimated data.

The estimation of selection probability on the preference of unbundled parking system and sales discount rate -targeted for the public apartment residents in Seoul- (공동주택 주차장 분리분양제의 선호 및 분양 할인율에 대한 선택 확률 추정 -서울시 공동주택 입주민을 대상으로-)

  • Chung, Sang-Woon;Rho, Jung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.587-595
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    • 2017
  • The study examinesthe hindrance factors including various laws and institutions with regard to the Unbundled Parking System (UPS) that has recently attracted the greatest attention as a way to manage traffic demand for sustainable development, efficient utilization of parking spaces, and to overcome the unstable housing market.The direction of improvement of related laws and institutions is also suggested. Its usage is proven by countries such as the United States of America and France, as they have already implemented this institution. To lay the foundation for the introduction of UPS of our own country, a survey on the preference for UPS was conducted. The survey equally divided 300 respondents into three clusters based on the sales price of apartments in Seoul. The analyses revealed that all three clusters have similar preferences (cluster 1: 68%, cluster 2: 62%, cluster 3: 65%) on UPS, and younger groups seem to answer in the affirmative more than the other age groups no matter what cluster they belong to. In conclusion, the results on the estimation of selection probability on the preference of unbundled parking system and sales discount rate are as follow. The groups of non-vehicle users have higher preference on UPS. When the discount rate is 14%, 69%, 77% and 62%ofrespondents would choose unbundled parking system for clusters 1, 2 and 3, respectively (₩6,370,000/PY,₩3,930,000/PY and ₩2,270,000/PY reduce when applying avg. sales price, respectively).

Determinants of Profit Growth in Food and Beverage Companies in Indonesia

  • ENDRI, Endri;SARI, Aprida Kartika;BUDIASIH, Yanti;YULIANTINI, Tine;KASMIR, Kasmir
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.739-748
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    • 2020
  • The study aims to estimate the effect of current ratio (CR), current liability to inventory (CLI), total asset turnover (TAT), net profit margin (NPM), sales growth (SG), and company size (FS) on profit growth (PG). The research population was 18 companies in the Food and Beverage (F&B) sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2014-2018. The data estimation method uses the common effect panel data regression model. The empirical findings show that the CR and CLI ratios have a negative effect on PG, while the TAT, NPM, and SG ratios have a positive effect. Company size is a factor that does not affect the growth of company profits. The results of the study imply that an increase in company profits can be achieved if the company operates efficiently and with low liquidity to encourage higher sales growth. The limitations of the research are as follows: first, this research considers only one type of industry, hence the results of this study would not be the same if applied to another type of industry. Second, the author observes profit growth by using the company's financial ratios and size and ignores other factors that may affect profit growth, for example, the number of employees, total net sales, and market capitalization.

The Impact of Non-technological Innovation on the Performance of Product Innovation (비기술적 혁신이 제품혁신의 성과에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Mun, Sung-Bae
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.331-353
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    • 2018
  • Using data from 2008 and 2010 Korean Innovation Survey, this study estimates the impacts of non-technological innovation activities on the performance of technological innovation. The study estimates the effects of the two types of innovation, organizational innovation and marketing innovation. The estimation results suggest that both organizational and marketing innovations are closely related to the success of innovative products. In particular, non-technological innovation has significant positive impacts on the share of sales with market novelties. Among individual practices in organizational innovation, only the introduction of new business practices contributes positively to the sales of innovative products. In case of marketing innovation, new marketing methods in product design, product promotion and pricing increase the share of sales from new products.

Corporate Investment Behavior and Level of Participation in the Global Value Chain: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

  • KUANTAN, Dhaha Praviandi;SIREGAR, Hermanto;RATNAWATI, Anny;JUHRO, Solikin M.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.12
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    • pp.117-127
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    • 2021
  • This study was conducted to comprehensively identify factors that potentially influence corporate investment behavior, including micro, macro, and sectoral variables. Furthermore, investment behavior was studied across nations based on their participation in the global value chain (GVC), which was evaluated based on commodities, limited manufacturing, advanced manufacturing, and innovative activities. The study uses the dynamic panel data analysis and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimation for a sample of 800 corporations, with data spanning over 2000-2019. The study result shows that in all types of countries, the coefficient lag indicator of capital expenditure statistically has a significant effect on capital expenditure. Sales growth, exchange rate, and GDP have a significant positive effect on corporate investment growth, while DER has a negative effect. In commodity countries, corporate investment is influenced by sales growth, exchange rate, and FCI. The variables that influence corporate investment in manufacturing countries are the FCI, exchange rate, sales growth, GDP, and DER. In innovative countries, variables that significantly affect capital expenditure are DER, GDP, and Tobin Q. In each type of country, the interaction terms between exchange rate and commodity price are positive and statistically significant.

A Modified Diffusion Model Considering Autocorrelated Disturbances: Applications on CT Scanners and FPD TVs (자기상관 오차항을 고려한 수정된 확산모형: CT-스캐너와 FPD TV에의 응용)

  • Cha, Kyoung Cheon;Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2009
  • Estimating the Bass diffusion model often creates a time-interval bias, which leads the OLS approach to overestimate sales at early stages and underestimate sales after the peak. Further, a specification error from omitted variables might raise serial correlations among residuals when marketing actions are not incorporated into the diffusion model. Autocorrelated disturbances may yield unbiased but inefficient estimation, and therefore invalid inference results. This phenomenon warrants a modified approach to estimating the Bass diffusion model. In this paper, the authors propose a modified Bass diffusion model handling autocorrelated disturbances. To validate the new approach, authors applied the method on two different data-sets: CT Scanners in the U.S, and FPD TV sales in Korea. The results showed improved model fit and the validity of the proposed model.

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Item Selection By Estimated Profit Ranking Based on Association Rule (연관규칙을 이용한 상품선택과 기대수익 예측)

  • Hwang, In-Soo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.87-97
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    • 2004
  • One of the most fundamental problems in business is ranking items with respect to profit based on historical transactions. The difficulty is that the profit of one item comes from its influence on the sales of other items as well as its own sales, and that there is no well-developed algorithm for estimating overall profit of selected items. In this paper, we developed a product network based on association rule and an algorithm for profit estimation and item selection using the estimated profit ranking(EPR). As a result of computer simulation, the suggested algorithm outperforms the individual approach and the hub-authority profit ranking algorithm.

An analysis of the relationship between technological import and indigenous R&D and their economic effects in the Korean industries (연구개발과 기술도입의 경제효과 및 상호관계 분석)

  • 장진규;홍순기
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.242-255
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    • 1994
  • Indigenous technological development and import of foreign technologies are two major sources of industrial innovation in Korea. This paper mainly deals with the analysis of the relationship between the two sources, employing the Tobit method. The estimation of the effects of those two sources on the firms' sales growth is also performed, including other exogenous variables such as fixed capital formation and the amount of exports, etc. in the model. Technological import is shown to be complimentary rather than substitute for or competitive with R&D in the Korean industries during 1990. This is understandable because R&D may be conducted to absorb and adapt the advanced imported technologies as well as to further more innovative technological development. Fixed capital formation is positively correlated with technology import, but negatively correlated with R&D. Technology importation seems to have contributed much more than R&D to the sales increase in the Korean industries.

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