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http://dx.doi.org/10.5762/KAIS.2019.20.2.458

Analysis and Estimation of Food and Beverage Sales at Incheon Int'l Airport by ARIMA-Intervention Time Series Model  

Yoon, Han-Young (Division of Comprehensive Aviation Studies, Hanseo University)
Park, Sung-Sik (Division of Flight Operation, Korea National University of Transportation)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society / v.20, no.2, 2019 , pp. 458-468 More about this Journal
Abstract
This research attempted to estimate monthly sales of food and beverage at the passenger terminal of Incheon int'l airport from June of 2015 to December 2020. This paper used ARIMA-Intervention model which can estimate the change of the sales amount suggesting the predicted monthly food and beverage sales revenue. The intervention variable was travel-ban policy against south Korea from P.R. China since July 2016 to December 2017 due to THAAD in south Korea. According to ARIMA, it was found normal predicted sales amount showed the slow growth increase rate until 2020 due to the effect of intervened variable. However, the monthly food sales in July and August 2019 was 20.3 and 21.2 billion KRW respectively. Each amount would increase even more in 2020 and the amount would increase to 21.4 and 22.1 billion KRW. The sales amount in 2019 would be 7.7 and 8.1 billion KRW and climb up 7.9 and 8.2 billion KRW in 2020. It was expected LCC passengers tend to spend more money for F&B at airport due to no meal or drink service of LCC or the paid-in meal and beverage service of LCC. The growth of sales of food and beverate will be accompanied with the growth of LCC according to estimated data.
Keywords
ARIMA-Intervention; Incheon int'l airport; Passenger terminal; F&B sales; Forecast;
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