IE interfaces (산업공학)

Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers (대한산업공학회)
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Re-estimation of Model Parameters in Growth Curves When Adjusting Market Potential and Time of Maximum Sales

성장곡선 예측 모형의 특성치 보정에 따른 매개변수의 재추정

  • Park, Ju-Seok (Department of Industrial Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Ko, Young-Hyun (Department of Industrial Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Jun, Chi-Hyuck (Department of Industrial Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Lee, Jae-Hwan (IT Information Center, ETR) ;
  • Hong, Seung-Pyo (IT Information Center, ETR) ;
  • Moon, Hyung-Don (IT Information Center, ETR)
  • 박주석 (포항공과대학교 산업공학과) ;
  • 고영현 (포항공과대학교 산업공학과) ;
  • 전치혁 (포항공과대학교 산업공학과) ;
  • 이재환 (한국전자통신연구원 IT정보센터) ;
  • 홍승표 (한국전자통신연구원 IT정보센터) ;
  • 문형돈 (한국전자통신연구원 IT정보센터)
  • Received : 20020600
  • Accepted : 20030100
  • Published : 2003.03.31
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Abstract

Growth curves are widely used in forecasting the market demand. When there are only a few data points available, the estimated model parameters have a low confidence. In this case, if some expert opinions are available, it would be better for predicting future demand to adjust the model parameters using these information. This paper proposes the methodology for re-estimation of model parameters in growth curves when adjusting market potential and/or time of maximum sales. We also provide the detailed procedures for five growth curves including Bass, Logistic, Gompertz, Weibull and Cumulative Lognormal models. Applications to real data are also included.

Keywords

References

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