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Re-estimation of Model Parameters in Growth Curves When Adjusting Market Potential and Time of Maximum Sales  

Park, Ju-Seok (Department of Industrial Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology)
Ko, Young-Hyun (Department of Industrial Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology)
Jun, Chi-Hyuck (Department of Industrial Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology)
Lee, Jae-Hwan (IT Information Center, ETR)
Hong, Seung-Pyo (IT Information Center, ETR)
Moon, Hyung-Don (IT Information Center, ETR)
Publication Information
IE interfaces / v.16, no.1, 2003 , pp. 103-110 More about this Journal
Abstract
Growth curves are widely used in forecasting the market demand. When there are only a few data points available, the estimated model parameters have a low confidence. In this case, if some expert opinions are available, it would be better for predicting future demand to adjust the model parameters using these information. This paper proposes the methodology for re-estimation of model parameters in growth curves when adjusting market potential and/or time of maximum sales. We also provide the detailed procedures for five growth curves including Bass, Logistic, Gompertz, Weibull and Cumulative Lognormal models. Applications to real data are also included.
Keywords
growth curve; forecasting; market potential; nonlinear least squares; expert opinion;
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