• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제76권3호
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• pp.421-433
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• 2020

Masonry infills are normally considered as non-structural elements in design practice, therefore, the interaction between the bounding frame and the strength contribution of masonry infills is commonly ignored in the seismic analysis work of the RC frames. However, a number of typical RC frames with irregular distributed masonry infills have suffered from undesirable weak-story failure in major earthquakes, which indicates that ignoring the influence of masonry infills may cause great seismic collapse risk of RC frames. This paper presented the investigation on the risk of seismic collapse of RC frames with irregularly distributed masonry infills through a large number of nonlinear time history analyses (NTHAs). Based on the results of NTHAs, seismic fragility curves were developed for RC frames with various distribution patterns of masonry infills. It was found that the existence of masonry infills generally reduces the collapse risk of the RC frames under both frequent happened and very strong earthquakes, however, the severe irregular distribution of masonry infills, such as open ground story scenario, results in great risk of forming a weak story failure. The strong-column weak-beam (SCWB) ratio has been widely adopted in major seismic design codes to control the potential of weak story failures, where a SCWB ratio value about 1.2 is generally accepted as the lower limit. In this study, the effect of SCWB ratio on inter-story drift distribution was also parametrically investigated. It showed that improving the SCWB ratio of the RC frames with irregularly distributed masonry infills can reduce inter-story drift concentration index under earthquakes, therefore, prevent weak story failures. To achieve the same drift concentration index limit of the bare RC frame with SCWB ratio of about 1.2, which is specified in ACI318-14, the SCWB ratio of masonry-infilled RC frames should be no less than 1.5. For the open ground story scenario, this value can be as high as 1.8.

• 대기
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.195-207
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• 2020

This study aims to introduce the structure of the impact-based heat health warning system on 165 counties in South Korea developed by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences. This system was developed using the daily maximum perceived temperature (PTmax), which is a human physiology-based thermal comfort index, and the Local ENSemble prediction system for the probability forecasts. Also, A risk matrix proposed by the World Meteorological Organization was employed for the impact-based forecasts of this system. The threshold value of the risk matrix was separately set depending on regions. In this system, the risk level was issued as four levels (GREEN, YELLOW, ORANGE, RED) for first, second, and third forecast lead-day (LD1, LD2, and LD3). The daily risk level issued by the system was evaluated using emergency heat-related patients obtained at six cities, including Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan, for LD1 to LD3. The high-risks level occurred more consistently in the shorter lead time (LD3 → LD1) and the performance (r_s) was increased from 0.42 (LD3) to 0.45 (LD1) in all cities. Especially, it showed good performance (r_s = 0.51) in July and August, when heat stress is highest in South Korea. From an impact-based forecasting perspective, PTmax is one of the most suitable temperature indicators for issuing the health risk warnings by heat in South Korea.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.71-88
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• 2024

Purpose - This study provides an overview of existing research and practices related to market risk premiums(MRP), and empirically estimates the MRP in Korea, particularly using the related option prices. We also seek to improve the current MRP practices and explore alternative solutions. Design/methodology/approach - We present the option price-based MRP estimation method, as proposed by Martin (2017), and implement it within the context of the Korean stock market. We then juxtapose these results with those derived from other methods, and compare the characteristics with those of the United States. Findings - We found that the lower limit of the MRP in the Korean stock market shows a much lower value compared to the US. There seems to be the possibility of a market crash, exchange rate volatility, or a lack of option trading data. We investigated the predictive power of the estimated values and discovered that the weighted average of the results of various methodologies using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is superior to the individual method's results. Research implications or Originality - It is required to explore various methods of estimating MRP that are suitable for the Korean stock market. In order to improve the estimation methodology based on option prices, it is necessary to develop the methods using the higher-order(third order or above) moments, or consider additional risk factors such as the possibility of a crash.

• 농촌계획
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to develop a farm management diagnostic checklist form, which can be applied to any crops. First, upper indexes and subordinate indexes were identified through survey with expert, and weighted values for each subordinate index were calculated through AHP analysis. Second, as a reuslt of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis, marketing management (0.276) was found to be the most important index of all upper indexes. In the case of subordinate indexes, reflecting management evaluation (0.252) of management consciousness, quality enhancement efforts (0.332) of production management, locating new sales outlets (0.323) of marketing management, agriculture accounting (0.300) of finance management, and adjusting shipping dates (0.274) of risk management were found to be the highest. Third, the interval division using weight of farm receiving prices was higher discrimination in comparison to equal interval division of weighted values for each index. The newly developed farm management diagnostic checklist can be applied to any crops, as it utilizes indexes such as management consciousness, production management, marketing management, financial management, risk management, etc. based on professional opinions. In addition, it allows an objective evaluation of farm management situations by utilizing the weighted value of farm receiving prices.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제43권5호
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• pp.396-402
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• 2010

Objectives: Self-reported anthropometric values, such as height and weight, are used to calculate body mass index (BMI) and assess the prevalence of obesity among adolescents. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity of selfreported height, weight, and BMI of the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey questionnaire. Methods: A convenience sample of 137 middle school students and 242 high school students completed a selfadministered questionnaire in 2008. Body height and weight were directly measured after self-reported values were obtained from the questionnaire survey. Sensitivity, specificity, and kappa statistics were computed in order to evaluate the validity of the prevalence of obesity (BMI $\geq$ 95th percentile or $\geq$ $25;kg/$m^2$) based on self-reported data. Results: Self-reported weight and BMI tended to be underestimated. Self-reported height tended to be overestimated among middle school females and high school males. Obese adolescents tended to underestimate their weight and BMI and overestimate their height more than non-obese adolescents. The prevalence estimate of obesity based on selfreported data (10.6%) was lower than that based on directly measured data (15.3%). The estimated sensitivity of obesity based on self-reported data was 69.0% and the specificity was 100.0%. The value of kappa was 0.79 (95% confidence interval, 0.70 - 0.88). Conclusions: This study demonstrated that self-reported height and weight may lead to the underestimation of BMI and consequently the prevalence of obesity. These biases should be taken into account when self-reported data are used for monitoring the prevalence and trends of obesity among adolescents nationwide.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2008년도 추계 학술발표회
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• pp.427-435
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• 2008

A reliability based slope stability assessment method is proposed and examined considering the variation of matric suction which is measured by a real time slope monitoring system. Mean value first order reliability method and advanced first order reliability method are used to calculate reliability indices of a slope. The applicability of methods is compared by applying them to the range of matric suctions measured by the real-time monitoring system. Sensitivity analysis is also performed to examine the contribution of random variables to the reliability index of slope. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a model slope. The results show that the reliability index of slope can be used for efficient slope management by quantifying the risk of slope in real time.

• 한국지형학회지
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.87-103
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk of cropland and man-made infrastructures in a landslide-prone area using a GIS-based method. To achieve this goal, a landslide inventory map was prepared based on aerial photograph analysis as well as field observations. A total of 550 landslides have been counted in the entire study area. For model analysis and validation, extracted landslides were randomly selected and divided into two groups. The landslide causative factors such as slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index, elevation, forest type, forest crown density, geology, land-use, soil drainage, and soil texture were used in the analysis. Moreover, to identify the correlation between landslides and causative factors, pixels were divided into several classes and frequency ratio was also extracted. A landslide susceptibility map was constructed using a bayesian predictive model (BPM) based on the entire events. In the cross validation process, the landslide susceptibility map as well as observation data were plotted with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve then the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated and tried to extract a success rate curve. The results showed that, the BPM produced 85.8% accuracy. We believed that the model was acceptable for the landslide susceptibility analysis of the study area. In addition, for risk assessment, monetary value (local) and vulnerability scale were added for each social thematic data layers, which were then converted into US dollar considering landslide occurrence time. Moreover, the total number of the study area pixels and predictive landslide affected pixels were considered for making a probability table. Matching with the affected number, 5,000 landslide pixels were assumed to run for final calculation. Based on the result, cropland showed the estimated total risk as US $ 35.4 million and man-made infrastructure risk amounted to US $ 39.3 million.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.189-198
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• 2024

Objective: To investigate the prognostic utility of radiomics features extracted from ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT combined with clinical factors and metabolic parameters in predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in individuals diagnosed with extranodal nasal-type NK/T cell lymphoma (ENKTCL). Materials and Methods: A total of 126 adults with ENKTCL who underwent ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT examination before treatment were retrospectively included and randomly divided into training (n = 88) and validation cohorts (n = 38) at a ratio of 7:3. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operation Cox regression analysis was used to select the best radiomics features and calculate each patient's radiomics scores (RadPFS and RadOS). Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-rank test were used to compare survival between patient groups risk-stratified by the radiomics scores. Various models to predict PFS and OS were constructed, including clinical, metabolic, clinical + metabolic, and clinical + metabolic + radiomics models. The discriminative ability of each model was evaluated using Harrell's C index. The performance of each model in predicting PFS and OS for 1-, 3-, and 5-years was evaluated using the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: Kaplan-Meier curve analysis demonstrated that the radiomics scores effectively identified high- and low-risk patients (all P < 0.05). Multivariable Cox analysis showed that the Ann Arbor stage, maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), and RadPFS were independent risk factors associated with PFS. Further, β2-microglobulin, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score, SUVmax, and RadOS were independent risk factors for OS. The clinical + metabolic + radiomics model exhibited the greatest discriminative ability for both PFS (Harrell's C-index: 0.805 in the validation cohort) and OS (Harrell's C-index: 0.833 in the validation cohort). The time-dependent ROC analysis indicated that the clinical + metabolic + radiomics model had the best predictive performance. Conclusion: The PET/CT-based clinical + metabolic + radiomics model can enhance prognostication among patients with ENKTCL and may be a non-invasive and efficient risk stratification tool for clinical practice.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.43-49
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• 2021

Purpose: This study attempted to examine the risk of stock price plunge according to the firm's management strategy. Prospector firms value innovation and have high uncertainties due to rapid growth. There is a possibility of lowering the quality of financial reporting in order to meet market expectations while withstanding the uncertainty of the results. In addition, managers of prospector firms enter into compensation contracts based on stock prices, thus creating an incentive to withhold negative information disclosure to the market. Prospector firms' information opacity and delays in disclosure of negative information are likely to cause a sharp decline in share prices in the future. Research design, data and methodology: This study performed logistic analysis of KOSPI listed firms from 2014 to 2017. The independent variable is the strategic index, and is calculated by considering the six characteristics (R&D investment, efficiency, growth potential, marketing, organizational stability, capital intensity) of the firm. The higher the total score, the more it is a firm that takes a prospector strategy, and the lower the total score, the more it is a firm that pursues a defender strategy. In the case of the dependent variable, a value of 1 was assigned when there was a week that experienced a sharp decline in stock prices, and 0 when it was not. Results: It was found that the more firms adopting the prospector strategy, the higher the risk of a sharp decline in the stock price. This is interpreted as the reason that firms pursuing a prospector strategy do not disclose negative information by being conscious of market investors while carrying out venture projects. In other words, compensation contracts based on uncertainty in the outcome of prospector firms and stock prices increase the opacity of information and are likely to cause a sharp decline in share prices. Conclusions: This study's analysis of the impact of management strategy on the stock price plunge suggests that investors need to consider the strategy that firms take in allocating resources. Firms need to be cautious in examining the impact of a particular strategy on the capital markets and implementing that strategy.

• 한국방사선학회논문지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.539-546
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• 2019

간조직 생검은 침습적이며, 합병증의 위험을 동반함에도 불구하고 간섬유화의 정도를 예측하는 표준 진단법으로 적용된다. 이러한 단점을 보완하기 위해 본 연구에서는 만성 C형간염 환자 200명을 대상으로 Fibroscan(R)을 이용하여 간섬유화 등급을 나누고, ROC 곡선을 측정하여 혈청학적검사로 계산되는 FIB-4, APRI, AAR의 유용성과 실질적인 Cut-off value를 알아보고자 하였다. 그 결과 간섬유화 평가를 위해 AAR을 적용하는 것보다는 APRI, FIB-4를 이용하는 것이 적절할 것으로 생각되며, 경한 섬유화 등급을 예측하기 위해서는 APRI, 간경변군인 F4등급에는 FIB-4를 사용하는 것이 유용하다고 판단된다. 혈청학적 간섬유화 표지자의 간편하고 반복 측정이 가능하다는 장점을 이용해 간 섬유화의 경과 관찰 기간을 줄일 수 있으므로 나아가 간경변과 간암의 유병률을 감소시킬 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.