• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.500-507
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• 2020

This paper presents a risk assessment methodology for standard flight procedures using recorded automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) data. Utilizing the proposed methodology, the results of risk analyses in RKSI (incheon international airport) and RKSS (gimpo international airport) using trajectories that are regenerated based on 100 days of ADS-B data are presented. For the risk metric, detect and avoid well clear (DWC) is used. With this index, each procedure was evaluated for the sections with highest level of risk. Among the standard instrument departure (SID) of RKSI, the section between SI712 and RANOS of RNAV BOPTA 1L showed the highest level of risk. For the standard terminal arrival route (STAR) of RKSI, section between SI947 and DANAN of RNAV GUKDO 1N wasthe one with the highest level of risk. For RKSS, the segment between SS726 and SS727 of RNAV BULTI 1X and the segment between KAKSO and KALMA of RNAV OLMEN 1D showed the highest level of risk among the SIDs and STARs, respectivly.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2011.11a
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• pp.1248-1251
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• 2011

Web Service technologies make the automation of business activities that are distributed across multiple enterprises possible. Existing extended transaction protocols typically resort to compensation actions to regain atomicity and consistency. A reservation-based transaction protocol is proposed to reduce high compensation risk. However, for a serial long running transaction processing, the resource that is reserved in the early stage may be released due to resource holding time expires. Therefore, our analysis theoretically illustrates a scheduling scheme that tries to prevent the loss of resource holding as well as gain an optimized execution plan with minimum compensation cost. In order to estimate cost of different schedules, we set up a costing model and cost metric to quantize compensation risk.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.53-60
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• 2024

Security assessment is an indispensable process for a secure network, and appropriate performance indicators must be present to manage risks. The most widely used quantitative indicator is CVSS. CVSS has a problem that it cannot consider context in terms of subjectivity, complexity of interpretation, and security risks. To compensate for these problems, we propose indicators that itemize and quantify four things: attackers, threats, responses, and assets, taking into account the security context of ISO/IEC 15408 documents. Vulnerabilities discovered through network scanning can be mapped to MITREATT&CK's technology by the connection between weaknesses and attack patterns (CAPEC). We use MITREATT&CK's Groups, Tactic, and Mitigations to produce consistent and intuitive scores. Accordingly, it is expected that security evaluation managers will have a positive impact on strengthening security such as corporate networks by expanding the range of choices among security indicators from various perspectives.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.323-334
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• 2015

he current VaR model based on the J.P. Morgan's RiskMetrics structurally can not reflect the future economic situation. In this study, we propose a One-factor model resulting from the Wiener stochastic process decomposed into a systematic risk factor and an idiosyncratic risk factor. Therefore, we are able to perform a preemptive risk management by means of reflecting the predicted common risk factors in the model. Stocks in the portfolio are satisfied with the independence to each other because the common factors are fixed by the predicted value. Therefore, we can easily determine the investment in each stock to minimize the variance of the portfolio. In addition, the portfolio VaR is decomposed into the sum of the individual VaR. So we can effectively implement the constitution of the portfolio to meet the target maximum losses.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.661-668
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• 2019

Seismic vulnerability assessment is a useful tool for rational safety analysis and planning of large and complex structural systems; it can deal with the effects of uncertainties on the performance of significant structural systems. In this study, an efficient dynamic reliability approach, probability density evolution methodology (PDEM), is proposed for seismic vulnerability analysis of earth dams. The PDEM provides the failure probability of different limit states for various levels of ground motion intensity as well as the mean value, standard deviation and probability density function of the performance metric of the earth dam. Combining the seismic reliability with three different performance levels related to the displacement of the earth dam, the seismic fragility curves are constructed without them being limited to a specific functional form. Furthermore, considering the seismic fragility analysis is a significant procedure in the seismic probabilistic risk assessment of structures, the seismic vulnerability results obtained by the dynamic reliability approach are combined with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard and seismic loss analysis to present and address the PDEM-based seismic probabilistic risk assessment framework by a simulated case study of an earth dam.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.91-100
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• 2000

In 1997 the recession of Korean economy brought about the bankruptcy of large corporations and the large size of non-Performing financial assets which led to IMF financial crisis. One of the major reasons for IMF financial crisis was poor loan management of domestic financial institutions . During the restructuring process of financial institutions since the IMF financial crisis, the importance of the loan management has been recognized. Especially. financial institutions' credit allocation had been concentrated on a few big conglomerates and their subsidies as well as some specific business areas. Hence, risk-diversifying portfolio effects were not reflected in any loan portfolios. The IMF financial crisis in 1997 has clearly showed that credit-risk management is essential not only for individuals' loan but also for portfolios consisting of various loans The main objective of this paper is to provide some suggestions on the direction for financial institutions in Korea to improve their loan portfolio management. Particularly, for the effective management of loan portfolios, this paper introduces quantitative credit-risk management schemes such as KMV models and CreditMetrics which are commonly used in financial institutions in advanced countries. Financial institutions in Korea should make their best efforts to establish a more scientific as well as quantitative loan portfolio management.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.577-587
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• 2018

The quantitative assessment of the seismic collapse risk of a structure requires the usage of an optimal intensity measure (IM) which can adequately characterise the severity of the ground motion. Research suggests that the average spectral acceleration ($Sa_{avg}$) may be an efficient and sufficient alternate IM as compared to the more traditional first mode spectral acceleration, $Sa(T_1)$, particularly during seismic collapse risk estimation. This study primarily presents a comparative evaluation of the sufficiency of the average spectral acceleration with respect to ground motion duration, and secondarily assesses the impact of ground motion duration on collapse risk estimation. By assembling a suite of 100 historical ground motions, incremental dynamic analysis of 60 different inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDF) oscillators with varying periods and ductility capacities were analysed, and collapse risk estimates obtained. Linear regression models are used to comparatively quantify the sufficiency of $Sa_{avg}$ and $Sa(T_1)$ using four significant duration metrics. Results suggests that an improved sufficiency may exist for $Sa_{avg}$ when the period of the SDF system increases, particularly beyond 0.5, as compare to $Sa(T_1)$. In reference to the ground motion duration measures, results indicated that the sufficiency of $Sa_{avg}$ is more sensitive to significant duration definitions that consider almost the full wave train of an accelerogram ($SD_{a5-95}$ and $SD_{v5-95}$). In order to obtain a reduced variability of the collapse risk estimate, the 5-95% significant duration metric defined using the Arias integral ($SD_{a5-95}$) should be used for seismic collapse risk estimation in conjunction with $Sa_{avg}$.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.2
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• pp.121-129
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• 2020

The increase of impervious surface and development along the river due to urbanization not only causes an increase in the number of associated flood risk factors but also exacerbates flood damage, leading to difficulties in flood management. Flood control measures should be prioritized based on various geographical information in urban areas. In this study, a probabilistic flood hazard assessment was applied to flood-prone areas near an urban river. Flood hazard maps were alternatively considered and used to describe the expected inundation areas for a given set of predictors such as elevation, slope, runoff curve number, and distance to river. This study proposes a Bayesian logistic regression-based flood risk model that aims to provide a probabilistic risk metric such as population-at-risk (PAR). Finally, the logistic regression model demonstrates the probabilistic flood hazard maps for the entire area.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.281-289
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• 2006

Even though software developing environment has been changing to Web basis very fast, there are just few studies of quality metric or estimation model for Web software. In this study after analyzing the correlation between the risk level and property of objects using linear regression, six middle sized industrial system has been used to propose the correlation model of size and Number of Classes(NOC), size and Number of Methods(NOM), complexity and NOC, and complexity and NOM. Among of six systems 5 systems(except S06) have high correlation between size(LOC) and NOM, and four systems(except S04 & S06) have high correlation between complexity and NOC / NOM. As Web software architecture with three sides of Server, Client and HTML, complexity of each sides has been compared, two system(S04, S06) has big differences of each sides compleity values and one system(S06) has very higher complexity value of HTML, So the risk level could be estimated through NOM to improve maintenance in case of that the system has no big differences of each sides complexity.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.81-90
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• 2016

This study aims to investigate the association between stock performance and credit ratings, and credit rating changes using a sample of 1,691 KRX firm-years that acquire equity in the form of long-term bonds from 2002 to 2013. Previous U.S. literature is mixed with regard to the relation between credit ratings and stock price. On one hand, there is evidence of a positive relation between credit ratings and stock prices, an anomaly established in U.S. studies. On the other hand, the CAPM model suggests a negative relation between stock prices and credit ratings, implying that investors expect financial rewards for bearing additional risk. To our knowledge, we are the first to examine the relationship between stock price and default risk proxied by credit ratings in period t+1. We find a negative (positive) relation between credit ratings (risk) in period t+1 and stock returns in period t, suggesting that credit rating agencies do not consider stock returns as a metric with the potential to influence default risk. Our results suggest that market participants may prefer firms with higher credit risk because of expected higher returns.