• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.233-240
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• 1999

Even though the recent construction safety disasters not only result in the loss inside construction sites but also become to a large public disasters, safety activities are managed in an irrational way and safety rules are ignored in the construction sites which leads to occur same type of disasters repeatedly. In this paper, a fuzzy set theoretic approach to risk analysis is proposed as an alternative to the techniques currently used in the general construction projects safety. Then the concept of risk evaluation using linguistic representation of the likelihood, exposure and consequences is introduced. A risk assessment model using approximate reasoning technique base on fuzzy logic is presented to drive fuzzy values of risk and numerical example for risk analysis is also presented to illustrate the results.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.114-128
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• 2016

The development of operational performance indicators is of utmost importance for nuclear power plants, since they measure, track, and trend plant operation. Leading indicators are ideal for reducing the likelihood of consequential events. This paper describes the operational data analysis of the information contained in the Corrective Action Program. The methodology considers human error and organizational factors because of their large contribution to consequential events. The results include a tool developed from the data to be used for the identification, prediction, and reduction of the likelihood of significant consequential events. This tool is based on the resilience curve that was built from the plant's operational data. The stress is described by the number of unresolved condition reports. The strain is represented by the number of preventive maintenance tasks and other periodic work activities (i.e., baseline activities), as well as, closing open corrective actions assigned to different departments to resolve the condition reports (i.e., corrective action workload). Beyond the identified resilience threshold, the stress exceeds the station's ability to operate successfully and there is an increased likelihood that a consequential event will occur. A performance indicator is proposed to reduce the likelihood of consequential events at nuclear power plants.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.11
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• pp.107-112
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• 2017

This paper performed an experimental study to test the validity of the prospect theory proposed by Tversky and Kahneman as an alternative to the expected utility theory. 115 college students attended the hypothetical games to choose one of two lotteries, one is safe option while the other one is risky. The risky options were set up to have low, medium or high probability of payoffs or losses. The amount of payoffs and losses of the lotteries was either large or small. Maximum likelihood estimation of the hypothetical games have shown that in case of high probability of positive payoffs the respondents were risk averse and when the probability of positive payoffs were small the respondents were risk loving. when the possibility of loss is high they were risk loving, while the probability is of loss is low the respondents were found to be risk averse. When the probability of risky options were medium the results were significant statistically in case of only losses. The amount of positive payoff or losses does not affect the results. Overall the results of this experiments support the prospect theory more than those of Laury & Holts (2008).

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.441-452
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• 2018

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study quantitative risk grade assessment for objective government quality assurance activities based on risk management in initial mass production for weapon systems. Methods: The Defense quality management regulations and foreign risk assessment documents are referred to analyze problems performing quality assurance actives. The failure rate data, maintainability and cost of products have been studied to quantify the risk Likelihood and impact. The analyzed data were classified as risk grade assessment through K-means Cluster Analysis method. Results: Results show that a proposed method can objectively evaluate risk grade. The analyzed results are clustered into three levels such as high, middle and low. Two products are allocated high, eleven low and seven middle. Conclusion: In this paper, quantitative risk grade assessment methods were presented by analyzing risk ratings based on objective data. The findings showed that the methods would be effective for initial mass production for weapon systems.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1661-1671
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• 2016

Risk analysis is a systematic study of uncertainties and risks we encounter in business, engineering, public policy, and many other areas. Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most widely used risk measurements in risk management. In this paper, the Korean Composite Stock Price Index data has been utilized to model the VaR employing the classical ARMA (1,1)-GARCH (1,1) models with normal, t, generalized hyperbolic, and generalized pareto distributed errors. The aim of this paper is to compare the performance of each model in estimating the VaR. The performance of models were compared in terms of the number of VaR violations and Kupiec exceedance test. The GARCH-GPD likelihood ratio unconditional test statistic has been found to have the smallest value among the models.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.103-111
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• 2013

This paper discusses how to manage supply chain disruption risks from natural disasters or other low-likelihood-high-impact risk drivers. After the catastrophic earthquake in Eastern Japan and the severe flood in Thailand, most companies have been attempting to re-establish the business continuity plan to prevent their supply chain from disruption. However, the challenges for managers and individual risks are often interrelated, and thus, actions that mitigate one risk can end up being no contribution as a whole. In this paper, we describe a framework for assessing how much impact individual mitigation strategies have on the entire supply chain protection against disruption, using network reliability. We propose three categories of risk-mitigation approaches: Stabilization, Absorption, and Duplication. We analyze the situation under which each of these strategies is the best suitable. With a clear understanding of relations between these mitigation strategies and the entire supply chain risks, managers can select effective risk-reduction approaches to their supply chain.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.459-466
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• 2013

Risk exists in all construction projects and resides among the collection of subcontractors and their array of individual activities. Wherever risk resides, the interrelation of participants to one another becomes paramount for the way in which risk is measured. Inherent risk becomes recognizable and quantifiable within network schedules in the form of consuming float - the flexibility to absorb delays. Allocating, owning, valuing, and expending such float in network schedules has been debated since the inception of the critical path method itself. This research investigates the foundational element of a three-part approach that examines how float can be traded as a commodity, a concept whose promise remains unfulfilled for lack of a holistic approach. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) of financial portfolio theory, which describes the relationship between risk and expected return of individual stocks, is explored as an analogy to quantify the inherent risk of the participants in construction projects. The inherent relationship between them and their impact on overall schedule performance, defined as schedule risk -the likelihood of failing to meet schedule plans and the effect of such failure, is matched with the use of CAPM's beta component - the risk correlation measure of an individual stock to that of the entire market - to determine parallels with respect to the inner workings and risks represented by each entity or activity within a schedule. This correlation is the initial theoretical extension that is required to identify where risk resides within construction projects, allocate and commoditize it, and achieve actual tradability.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.22-31
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• 2018

Due to the inherent risk factors of the remodeling projects, the remodeling project is failing frequently, and schedule delay are occurring in most remodeling projects. The risk factors that cause the delays in these remodeling projects are not common to all remodeling projects, and the likelihood of risk factors will be affected by the various characteristics of the project. In this context, based on the results of a reliable survey conducted on 29 construction managers who have performed remodeling projects, this research analyzes (1) "importance of each characteristic", which means how frequently the characteristics of the remodeling project affect the occurrence of risk factors, (2) "the likelihood of delay risk factors for remodeling projects", which assesses which risk factors are most likely to occur, and 3) "the level of effect of project characteristics that affects the occurrence of each risk factor." Through this study, the relationship between various characteristics of the office building remodeling projects and the delay risk factors was analyzed in various aspects, in further, it is expected that the owner planning the remodeling will be able to grasp the delay risk that is likely to occur according to the characteristics of the project in advance.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.494-501
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• 2009

Probabilistic Ecological risk assessment (PERA) is extensive approach to qualify and quantify risk on the multi species based on species sensitivity distribution (SSD). As a while, deterministic ecological risk assessment (DERA) considers the comparison of predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) and predicted exposure concentration (PEC). DERA is used to determine if there is potential risk or no risk, and it doesn't consider the nature variability and the species sensitivity. But PERA can be more realistic and reasonable approach to estimate likelihood or risk. In this study, we compared PERA used in developed countries, and proposed PERA applicable for the Korean water environment. Taxonomic groups were classified as "class" level including Actinopterygill, Branchiopoda, Chlorophyceae, Maxillapoda, Insects, Bivalvia, Gastropoda, Secernentea, Polychaeta, Monocotyldoneae, and Chanophyceae in this study. Statistical extrapolation method (SEM), statistical extrapolation method $_{acutechronicratio}$ ($SEM_{ACR}$) and assessment factor method (AFM) were used to calculate the ecological protective concentration based on qualitative and quantitative levels of taxonomic toxicity data. This study would be useful to establish the PERA for the protection of aquatic ecosystem in Korea.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.133-142
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• 2022

This study examines the relationship between debt maturity structure and bankruptcy risk. There are various studies of leverage's effect on bankruptcy risk. Debt maturity, however, has not received the attention it deserves, especially in emerging markets with a high degree of information asymmetry. Using Vietnamese listed company data and various estimations, we find that leverage is positively associated with the likelihood of default. Importantly, short-term leverage shows a significantly positive effect on bankruptcy risk, while long-term leverage does not show significant results. The findings highlight that rollover risk firms are exposed to when using short-term debt increases bankruptcy risk. Meanwhile, firms do not cope with this risk in case of long-term debt adoption. High information asymmetry in emerging markets may be the main reason for the difference. The result is robust for subsamples of firms in different financial conditions, in concentrated and competitive industries, as well as for manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies. We also find that firms in a better financial situation and concentrated industries experience a higher short-term leverage effect than their counterparts. We, however, do not find a significant difference in the impact between manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies. This paper is among the first to examine the relation between debt maturity and bankruptcy risk in Vietnam.