• Title/Summary/Keyword: Reliability Analysis

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Features of sample concepts in the probability and statistics chapters of Korean mathematics textbooks of grades 1-12 (초.중.고등학교 확률과 통계 단원에 나타난 표본개념에 대한 분석)

  • Lee, Young-Ha;Shin, Sou-Yeong
    • Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.327-344
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    • 2011
  • This study is the first step for us toward improving high school students' capability of statistical inferences, such as obtaining and interpreting the confidence interval on the population mean that is currently learned in high school. We suggest 5 underlying concepts of 'discretion of contingency and inevitability', 'discretion of induction and deduction', 'likelihood principle', 'variability of a statistic' and 'statistical model', those are necessary to appreciate statistical inferences as a reliable arguing tools in spite of its occasional erroneous conclusions. We assume those 5 concepts above are to be gradually developing in their school periods and Korean mathematics textbooks of grades 1-12 were analyzed. Followings were found. For the right choice of solving methodology of the given problem, no elementary textbook but a few high school textbooks describe its difference between the contingent circumstance and the inevitable one. Formal definitions of population and sample are not introduced until high school grades, so that the developments of critical thoughts on the reliability of inductive reasoning could not be observed. On the contrary of it, strong emphasis lies on the calculation stuff of the sample data without any inference on the population prospective based upon the sample. Instead of the representative properties of a random sample, more emphasis lies on how to get a random sample. As a result of it, the fact that 'the random variability of the value of a statistic which is calculated from the sample ought to be inherited from the randomness of the sample' could neither be noticed nor be explained as well. No comparative descriptions on the statistical inferences against the mathematical(deductive) reasoning were found. Few explanations on the likelihood principle and its probabilistic applications in accordance with students' cognitive developmental growth were found. It was hard to find the explanation of a random variability of statistics and on the existence of its sampling distribution. It is worthwhile to explain it because, nevertheless obtaining the sampling distribution of a particular statistic, like a sample mean, is a very difficult job, mere noticing its existence may cause a drastic change of understanding in a statistical inference.

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The Situation and the Tasks of UK Rail Privatization, Focusing on after the Hatfield Accident (영국 철도 민영화의 현황 및 과제 (Hatfield사고 이후의 변화를 중심으로))

  • Lee, Yong-Sang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.2 s.88
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    • pp.91-100
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    • 2006
  • This paper examines the situation and tasks of UK rail privatization, especially focusing on after the Hatfield rail accident. Earlier research which focused on the UK's Privatization had little knowledge of the explanations for recent changes. Moreover they had difficulty making a direct comparison between national rail and the privatized rail. Therefore we aye left without a good explanation which has a comprehensive perspective. I attempt to show the change in the rail privatization Process and its outcome, focusing on after the Hatfield rail accident. This Paper argues that the UK's vail privatization process has a regulatory framework which is too complicated with overlapping responsibilities that brought about inefficiency, increasing costs and a superficial safety regime. Especially the planning of rail and infrastructure maintenance did not come to play an appropriate role. However after 2000, the government took charge of setting the strategy for railways, and the Office of Rail Regulation covered safety performance and cost. explain that these changes present a good opportunity to solve the problem of passing the buck for poor performance. Through the analysis, I find that the passenger rail network is well-suited to deliver long distance business and commuters and that the subsidy from the government is decreasing. However, performance, for example punctuality and reliability. should be improved. Especially the Hatfield rail accident caused a reduction in the satisfaction of passengers. In future. the problems of rising costs and monopoly franchise system should be addressed.

Impact Evaluation of Water Footprint on Stages of Drainage Works (배수공 각 작업 단계별 물발자국 영향평가)

  • Chen, Di;Kim, Joon-Soo;Batagalle, Vinuri;Kim, Byung-Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.225-231
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    • 2020
  • Fresh water that can be used by a person of the total amount of water on the planet is increased because it is less than 0.01 % except underground water, ice and snow, etc. water management response need. In order to protect and efficiently utilize water resources, major countries are conducting water footprint studies that can quantitatively estimate the amount of water put into the operating phase of the resource harvesting phase, mainly agriculture. Korea has also recently developed a number of policies in order to cope with water shortages, and in the construction industry, as well as the need for basic research to support it has been emphasized. This study was constructed DB up to the raw material harvesting step, the transport step, the production stage in order to estimate the water consumption of resources to be put into the work process to target the drainage of the road. Water usage estimation method was utilized the method presented in the Water Footprint Manual and the environmental score card certification guide, unit water usage each drainage main method was calculated after estimating the water footprint considering the water character factor, indirect water and the direct water, the water consumption factor of material input to each process. Brown asphalt, rebar, remicon of the drainage material as a result of the water footprint calculation accounted for 97 % of the total. Drainage method is a culvert, a side channel, a culvert wing wall, reinforced concrete open channel accounted for 92.2 % of the total. Drainage total step-by-step calculated water consumption and water footprint was found in order of raw material harvesting step, transport stage, production stage. Water footprint each drainage method or total drainage material calculated in this study can be used as a base data in the agricultural and construction sectors. In order to increase the reliability of the analysis, it is believed that further overseas databases will be needed for continuous review and research.

A Study on the Development of a Simulation Model for Predicting Soil Moisture Content and Scheduling Irrigation (토양수분함량 예측 및 계획관개 모의 모형 개발에 관한 연구(I))

  • 김철회;고재군
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.4279-4295
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    • 1977
  • Two types of model were established in order to product the soil moisture content by which information on irrigation could be obtained. Model-I was to represent the soil moisture depletion and was established based on the concept of water balance in a given soil profile. Model-II was a mathematical model derived from the analysis of soil moisture variation curves which were drawn from the observed data. In establishing the Model-I, the method and procedure to estimate parameters for the determination of the variables such as evapotranspirations, effective rainfalls, and drainage amounts were discussed. Empirical equations representing soil moisture variation curves were derived from the observed data as the Model-II. The procedure for forecasting timing and amounts of irrigation under the given soil moisture content was discussed. The established models were checked by comparing the observed data with those predicted by the model. Obtained results are summarized as follows: 1. As a water balance model of a given soil profile, the soil moisture depletion D, could be represented as the equation(2). 2. Among the various empirical formulae for potential evapotranspiration (Etp), Penman's formula was best fit to the data observed with the evaporation pans and tanks in Suweon area. High degree of positive correlation between Penman's predicted data and observed data with a large evaporation pan was confirmed. and the regression enquation was Y=0.7436X+17.2918, where Y represents evaporation rate from large evaporation pan, in mm/10days, and X represents potential evapotranspiration rate estimated by use of Penman's formula. 3. Evapotranspiration, Et, could be estimated from the potential evapotranspiration, Etp, by introducing the consumptive use coefficient, Kc, which was repre sensed by the following relationship: Kc=Kco$.$Ka+Ks‥‥‥(Eq. 6) where Kco : crop coefficient Ka : coefficient depending on the soil moisture content Ks : correction coefficient a. Crop coefficient. Kco. Crop coefficients of barley, bean, and wheat for each growth stage were found to be dependent on the crop. b. Coefficient depending on the soil moisture content, Ka. The values of Ka for clay loam, sandy loam, and loamy sand revealed a similar tendency to those of Pierce type. c. Correction coefficent, Ks. Following relationships were established to estimate Ks values: Ks=Kc-Kco$.$Ka, where Ks=0 if Kc,=Kco$.$K0$\geq$1.0, otherwise Ks=1-Kco$.$Ka 4. Effective rainfall, Re, was estimated by using following relationships : Re=D, if R-D$\geq$0, otherwise, Re=R 5. The difference between rainfall, R, and the soil moisture depletion D, was taken as drainage amount, Wd. {{{{D= SUM from { {i }=1} to n (Et-Re-I+Wd)}}}} if Wd=0, otherwise, {{{{D= SUM from { {i }=tf} to n (Et-Re-I+Wd)}}}} where tf=2∼3 days. 6. The curves and their corresponding empirical equations for the variation of soil moisture depending on the soil types, soil depths are shown on Fig. 8 (a,b.c,d). The general mathematical model on soil moisture variation depending on seasons, weather, and soil types were as follow: {{{{SMC= SUM ( { C}_{i }Exp( { - lambda }_{i } { t}_{i } )+ { Re}_{i } - { Excess}_{i } )}}}} where SMC : soil moisture content C : constant depending on an initial soil moisture content $\lambda$ : constant depending on season t : time Re : effective rainfall Excess : drainage and excess soil moisture other than drainage. The values of $\lambda$ are shown on Table 1. 7. The timing and amount of irrigation could be predicted by the equation (9-a) and (9-b,c), respectively. 8. Under the given conditions, the model for scheduling irrigation was completed. Fig. 9 show computer flow charts of the model. a. To estimate a potential evapotranspiration, Penman's equation was used if a complete observed meteorological data were available, and Jensen-Haise's equation was used if a forecasted meteorological data were available, However none of the observed or forecasted data were available, the equation (15) was used. b. As an input time data, a crop carlender was used, which was made based on the time when the growth stage of the crop shows it's maximum effective leaf coverage. 9. For the purpose of validation of the models, observed data of soil moiture content under various conditions from May, 1975 to July, 1975 were compared to the data predicted by Model-I and Model-II. Model-I shows the relative error of 4.6 to 14.3 percent which is an acceptable range of error in view of engineering purpose. Model-II shows 3 to 16.7 percent of relative error which is a little larger than the one from the Model-I. 10. Comparing two models, the followings are concluded: Model-I established on the theoretical background can predict with a satisfiable reliability far practical use provided that forecasted meteorological data are available. On the other hand, Model-II was superior to Model-I in it's simplicity, but it needs long period and wide scope of observed data to predict acceptable soil moisture content. Further studies are needed on the Model-II to make it acceptable in practical use.

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A study on improvement of misdiagnosis rate in aortic regurgitation disease by physically correcting EF in 2D echo cardiography (대동맥판 역류질환 진단시 이면성심초음파 박출계수의 보정을 통한 오진율 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Kwan-Woo;Son, Soon-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.2142-2147
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    • 2012
  • This study is aimed at decreasing wrong diagnosis with corrected EF(Ejection Fraction) of 2D echo cardiography by analysing the physical time-resolution difference between Cine MRI and 2D echo cardiography and applying the corrected EF in 2D echocardiography. From February 2010 to December 2011, among the 110 patients who had undergone both 2D echo cardiography and cine MRI only 37 patient were selected suffering aortic valve regurgitation. ED, ES and SV were measured and EF was calculated in each system while normal ranges of Cine MRI and 2D echocardiography were compared to evauate misdiagnosis rate. The correlation of physical time resolution between 2D echocardiography and MRI was evaluated and the differences were corrected with linear regression coefficient which is derived from linear regression analysis. Blandt-Altman plot was used to evaluate the reliability of corrected 2D echo cardiography EF and compare the error among measured values. The values were compared with MRI normal range and misdiagnosis rate was measured again. As a result, misdiagnosis rates of physical time resolution were measured to be 32.4%(12people) before the correction of EF and 18.9%(7people) after the correction. Also, EF confirmed in Blandt-Altman plot were almost the same with MRI EF. In conclusion, when diagnosing aortic regurgitation disease, simply using 2D echocardiography can easily raise the misdiagnosis rates, therefore considering the MRI machine's physical merits, correcting the time resolution difference is important by calculating time resolution wrong diagnosis would decrease and it is considered to be useful in clinical circumstances.

The Need for Child Hospice Care in Families of Children with Cancer (암 환아 가족의 아동 호스피스 요구도)

  • Kang, Kyung-Ah;Kim, Shin-Jeong;Kim, Young-Soon
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.221-231
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    • 2004
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to analyze the need for child hospice care programs in families of children with cancer. Methods: The survey of 104 families who were taking care of children with cancer was conducted. This survey was conducted from February 2004 to July 2004 at two general hospitals in Seoul. The data were collected through a self-reporting questionnaire of 22 items. The items were classified into five areas by factor analysis to identify the construct validity. The reliability of the tool was established by Cronbach's alpha as .94 and the data collected were analyzed by descriptive statistics, t-test and ANOVA. Results: 1) The degree of need for hospice care of the subjects showed a high average of 3.40 (${\pm}3.8$). The need for 'emotional care of children' showed the highest mean (M=3.55), 'management of terminal physical symptoms'(M=3.49), 'control of secondary physical problems' (M=3.41), 'acceptance of the family's difficulty' (M=3.20), 'spiritual care for preparing for death'(M=3.17), respectively. 2) With respect to the demographic characteristics of the subjects, there were statistically significant differences in hospice care needs, according to the child's mother's age (F==4.980, P=.009), whether or not there were cancer patients among their siblings or relatives (t=2.423, P=.017). Conclusion: The family of children with cancer have a heavy burden of ambivalence, especially in relieving the anxiety and fear of their children, communicating about death, and managing physical symptoms. Child hospice care must be provided considering the needs of families of children with cancer. Thus popular needs as well as hospice nurses' higher concern and support for hospice care of children require further education and program development to meet the current demands.

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A Legal Study on the Certificate System for Light Sports Aircraft Repairman (경량항공기 정비사 자격증명제도에 관한 법적 고찰)

  • Kim, Woong-Yi;Shin, Dai-Won;Lee, Gi-Myung
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.175-204
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    • 2018
  • Recently, the aviation leisure business has been legislated, and related industries have become active base with increasing the light sports aircraft within the legislation system. However, in the light sports aircraft safety problem, it is often mentioned that the flight is in violation of the regulations, the lack of safety consciousness of the operator and lack of ability, and the personal operators have a risk of accident of light aircraft such as insufficient safety management and poor maintenance. At present, the maintenance of light sports aircraft is carried out by the A & P mechanic in accordance with the relevant laws and regulations, but it is difficult to say that it is equipped with qualification and expertise. It is not a legal issue to undertake light sports aircraft maintenance work on the regulation system. However, the problem of reliability and appropriateness is constantly being raised because airplanes, light sports aircraft, and ultra-light vehicle are classified and serviced in a legal method. Although legal and institutional frameworks for light sports aircraft are separated, much of it is stipulated in the aviation law provisions. Light sports aircraft maintenance work also follows the current aircraft maintenance system. In the United States, Europe, and Australia where General Aviation developed, legal and institutional devices related to maintenance of light aircraft were introduced, and specialized maintenance tasks are covered in the light aircraft mechanics system. As a result of analysis of domestic and foreign laws and regulations, it is necessary to introduce the qualification system for maintenance of light aircraft. In advanced aviation countries such as the United States, Europe, and Australia, a light sports aircraft repairman system is installed to perform safety management. This is to cope with changes in the operating environment of the new light sports aircraft. This study does not suggest the need for a light aircraft repairman system. From the viewpoint of the legal system, the examination of the relevant laws and regulations revealed that the supplementary part of the system is necessary. It is also require that the necessity of introduction is raised in comparison with overseas cases. Based on these results, it is necessary to introduce the system into the light aircraft repairman system, and suggestions for how to improve it are suggested.

Noninvasive Prenatal Diagnosis using Cell-Free Fetal DNA in Maternal Plasma: Clinical Applications

  • Yang, Young-Ho;Han, Sung-Hee;Lee, Kyoung-Ryul
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2011
  • Owing to the risk of fetal loss associated with prenatal diagnostic procedures (amniocentesis, chorionic villus sampling), noninvasive prenatal diagnosis (NIPD) is ultimate goal of prenatal diagnosis. The discovery of circulating cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) in maternal plasma in 1997 has opened up new probabilities for NIPD by Dr. Lo et al. The last decade has seen great development in NIPD. Fetal sex and fetal RhD status determination by cffDNA analysis is already in clinical use in certain countries. For routine use, this test is limited by the amount of cell-free maternal DNA in blood sample, the lack of universal fetal markers, and appropriate reference materials. To improve the accuracy of detection of fetal specific sequences in maternal plasma, internal positive controls to confirm to presence of fetal DNA should be analyzed. We have developed strategies for noninvasive determination of fetal gender, and fetal RhD genotyping using cffDNA in maternal plasma, using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) including RASSF1A epigenetic fetal DNA marker (gender-independent) as internal positive controls, which is to be first successful study of this kind in Korea. In our study, accurate detection of fetal gender through gestational age, and fetal RhD genotyping in RhD-negative pregnant women was achieved. In this assay, we show that the assay is sensitive, easy, fast, and reliable. These developments improve the reliability of the applications of circulating fetal DNA when used in clinical practice to manage sex-linked disorders (e.g., hemophilia, Duchenne muscular dystrophy), congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), RhD incompatibility, and the other noninvasive pregnant diagnostic tests on the coming soon. The study was the first successful case in Korea using cffDNA in maternal plasma, which has created a new avenue for clinical applications of NIPD.

A Study on the Moisturizing Effect and Preparation of Liquid Crystal Structures Using Sucrose Distearate Emulsifier (슈크로오스디스테아레이트를 사용한 액정구조의 생성과 보습효과에 관한 연구)

  • Kwak, Myeong-Heon;Kim, In-Young;Lee, Hwan-Myung;Park, Joo-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2016
  • This study is to make the liquid crystalline structure using sucrose distearate (Sucro-DS) emulsifier to create the hydrophilic type oil-in-water (O/W) emulsion, the droplets of the emulsion having a structure of a multi-lamellar structure. We have studied the physicochemical properties of Sucro-DS using those techniques. And it has been studied in the emulsion performance. In order to form the liquid crystalline structure applying 3 wt% of Sucro-DS, 5 wt% of glycerin, 5 wt% of squalane, 5 wt% of capric/caprylic triglyceride, 3wt% of cetostearyl alcohol, 1wt% of glyceryl mono-stearate, 78 wt% of pure water in mixture having the lamellar structure of stable multi-layer system was found to formed. By applying them, they were described how to create an unstable active material encapsulated cream. Further, the moisturizing cream was studied using this technique. It reported the results to the skin improvement effect by the human clinical trials. The pH range to produce a stable liquid crystal phase using a Sucro-DS was maintained in 5.2~7.5. In order to increase the stability of the liquid crystal, it was when behenyl alcohol containing 3 wt%, the hardness at this time was 13 kg/mm,min. Viscosity of the same amount was 25,000mPas/min. After a test for the effects of the emulsions, the concentration of 6 wt% Sucro-DS is that was appropriate, the particle size of the liquid crystal was 4~6mm. It was observed through a microscope analysis, reliability of the liquid crystal changes for 3 months was found to get stable at each $4^{\circ}C$, $25^{\circ}C$ and $45^{\circ}C$. In clinical trial test, before applying a moisturizing effect it was $13.4{\pm}7%$. Moisturizing cream liquid crystal was not formed in $14.5{\pm}5%$. Therefore, applying than ever before could see the moisture about 8.2% was improved. On the other hand, it was the moisturizing effect of the liquid cream is $19.2{\pm}7%$. The results showed that 43.3% improvement than that previously used. Applications fields, Sucro-DS emulsifier used liquid cream, lotion, eye cream and a variety of formulations can be developed, as well as the cosmetics industry is expected to be wide fields in the application of the external preparation for skin emulsion technology in the pharmaceutical industry and pharmaceutical industry.

Parents' Perception and Satisfaction of School Food Materials and Supplier -Performance in Mokpo, Korea- (학교급식 식재료 및 공급업체에 대한 학부모들의 인식 및 만족도 -목포지역 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Seok-In;Kang, Pyong-Yon;Jung, Hyun-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.44 no.11
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    • pp.1741-1749
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate parents' perception and satisfaction of school food materials and supplier performance in Mokpo. To achieve these research objectives, a questionnaire was distributed to parents at 66 schools, and a total of 589 were used in the final analysis. The results of this study were as follows. First, satisfaction of school foodservice, showed the following scores: overall was 3.75, quality of food materials was 3.84, reliability of food suppliers was 3.80, education was 3.53, and information was 3.50. Second, 38.5% of parents participated in receiving school materials. Exactly 80.6% of parents showed intentions to participate. The most difficult thing for receiving materials was comparing quality of food materials (46.3%). Third, the most important factor cited for school food supplier was quality (62.3%) and sanitation and safety (24.1%). Forth, most parents were positive about the possibility of replacing foods used at school with environment friendly products. Local foods were cited for use in school foodservice (92.2%). The reasons were good quality (39.9%) and contribution to the local community (28.5%). In conclusion, parent's perception of school foodservice should increase to improve food material quality of school foodservice. Institutions for certifying are needed to offer high quality food materials at school foodservice and improved communication and education tool between the school and parents.