• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.107-116
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• 2008

This paper deals with modelling and introducing of the project portfolio construction and evaluation problem under uncertainty. The common way in industry of managing project portfolio is construction of initial portfolio considering uncertainties which exist inside and outside of portfolio, and periodic revision of portfolio due to the deviation from plans. In this paper, we introduce algorithm which reflecting the industrial common practice of initial planning and periodic revision. With this simulation method, probabilistic distribution of portfolio's performance in consideration can be found.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.850-858
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• 2011

The risk analysis plays an important role in weapon system acquisition project due to uncertainties in the acquisition process. But in domestic, studies on risk analysis are insufficient and risk cost is not included in acquisition budget in policy. Therefore, in this study, we suggest a method that measures risk or success probability of project using the stochastic model. In particular, in order to calculate the success probability, we apply the joint probability distribution model of cost and schedule that are critical factors influencing the project risk. And also we verify the applicability of this model in Korean defence industry environment through case studies.

• Architectural research
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.75-80
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• 2014

Risks, uncertainties, and associated cost overruns are critical problems for construction projects. Cost contingency is an important funding source for these unforeseen events and is included in the base estimate to help perform financially successful projects. In order to predict more accurate contingency, many empirical models using regression analysis and artificial neural network method have been proposed and showed its viability to minimize prediction errors. However, categorical factors on contingency cannot have been treated and thus considered in these empirical models since those models are able to treat only numerical factors. This paper identified potential factors on contingency in transportation construction projects and evaluated categorical factors using the one-way ANOVA statistical method. Among factors including project work type, delivery method type, contract agreement type, bid award type, letting type, and geographical location, two factors of project work type and contract agreement type were found to be statistically important on allocating cost contingency.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.129-149
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• 1993

The high level of activity in the development and maintenance of computer software makes the scheduling of software projects an importnat factor in reducing operating costs and increasing competitiveness. Software activity is labor intensive. Scheduling management of hours of software work is complicated by ther interdependencies between the segments of work, and the uncertainties of the work itself. This paper discusses issues of scheduling in software engineering management, and presents a modular decomposition model for software project scheduling, taking advantage of the facility for decomposition of a software project into relatively independent work segment modules. Modular decomposition makes it possible to treat scheduling as clustering and sequencing in the context of integer programming. A heuristic algorithm for the model is presented with some computational experiments.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.21-34
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• 2013

Various risk factors affect construction projects. Due to the uncertainties created by risk factors, actual activity durations frequently deviate from the estimated durations in either favorable or adverse direction. For this reason, evaluation of schedule uncertainty is required to make decisions accurately when managing construction projects. In this regard, this paper presents a new computer simulation model - the Repetitive Schedule Risk Analysis Model (RSRAM) - to evaluate unit-based repetitive building project schedules under uncertainty when activity durations and risk factors are correlated. The proposed model utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation and a Critical Path Method based repetitive scheduling procedure. This new procedure concurrently provides the utilization of resources without interruption and the maintenance of network logic through successive units. Furthermore, it enables assigning variable production rates to the activities from one unit to another and any kind of relationship type with or without lag time. Details of the model are described and an example application is presented. The findings show that the model produces realistic results regarding the extent of uncertainty inherent in the schedule.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1997.07a
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• pp.352-357
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• 1997

The development of very high speed train system is a complex series of interrelated tasks, many of which have some degree of uncertainty associated with the successful outcome. Successful projects recognize and provide for the major uncertainties and technical unknowns with specific development strategies. The development strategies described in this paper incorporated the experiences of the advanced countries in high speed train technologies, the current technical status of Korean industries and the operating requirements of Korean High Speed Railway.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.304-310
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• 2011

The populations of major cities in Australia are increasing rapidly and facing an acute housing shortage. Traditional apartment procurement techniques involve lengthy lead-times and factory-based, or offsite manufactured (OSM) multi-storey apartment buildings may offer the opportunity to help fulfill the need by significantly reducing build times. Other advantages of OSM may include superior quality, low weight ratios, economies of scale achieved through repetition of prefabricated units, use on infill sites, sustainable design standards and better occupational health and safety. There are also positive labour and training implications, which may help to alleviate an industry-wide shortage of skills through use of semi-skilled labour. Previous uncertainties about the adoption of offsite due to the high capital costs and perception issues were generally based on pre-cast concrete structures, which are quite a different building type in terms of flexibility, construction, delivery and finishes. Identification of drivers and constraints assists in the determination of current industry status, allows for a benchmark to be established and future opportunities and directions for OSM to be determined.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.53-61
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• 2011

For construction projects, the importance of early cost estimates is highly recognized by the project team and sponsoring organization because early cost estimates are frequently a foundation of business decisions as well as a basis for identifying any changes as the project progresses from design to construction. However, it is difficult to accurately estimate construction cost in the early stage of a project due to various uncertainties in construction. To deal with these uncertainties, cost estimates should be made several times over the course of the project. In particular, early cost estimates are essential process for successful project management. For accurate construction cost estimates, it is necessary to compare cost estimates with actual costs based on historical project data. In this context, case-based reasoning (CBR), which is the process of solving new problems based on the solutions of similar past problems, can be considered as an effective method for cost estimating. To obtain this, it is also required to define the attribute similarities and the attribute weights. However, no existing method is capable of determining attribute weights of qualitative variables. Consequently, it has been a well-known barrier of accurate early cost estimates. Using Genetic Algorithms (GA), this research suggests the method of determining the attribute weight of qualitative variables. Based on building project case studies, the proposed methodology was validated.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.72-86
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• 2016

A steam explosion may occur during a severe accident, when the molten core comes into contact with water. The pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor ex-vessel steam explosion study, which was carried out with the multicomponent three-dimensional Eulerian fuel-coolant interaction code under the conditions of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Steam Explosion Resolution for Nuclear Applications project reactor exercise, is presented and discussed. In reactor calculations, the largest uncertainties in the prediction of the steam explosion strength are expected to be caused by the large uncertainties related to the jet breakup. To obtain some insight into these uncertainties, premixing simulations were performed with both available jet breakup models, i.e., the global and the local models. The simulations revealed that weaker explosions are predicted by the local model, compared to the global model, due to the predicted smaller melt droplet size, resulting in increased melt solidification and increased void buildup, both reducing the explosion strength. Despite the lower active melt mass predicted for the pressurized water reactor case, pressure loads at the cavity walls are typically higher than that for the boiling water reactor case. This is because of the significantly larger boiling water reactor cavity, where the explosion pressure wave originating from the premixture in the center of the cavity has already been significantly weakened on reaching the distant cavity wall.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.658-659
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• 2015

GCM and scenario uncertainties are first investigated for 5 major watersheds (Han River, Paldang dam, Namhan River, Bukhan River and Imjin River watersheds). As a result of this study, it is found that CCSM3-based annual precipitation increases linearly with respect to the 10-year moving average values while CSIRO-based precipitation does not show much of trend. The results from annual DJF mean precipitation show a similar trend with respect to their 10-year moving average values. Both CCSM3- and CSIRO-based annual JJA mean precipitation do not show much of trend toward 21^st century. In general, CCSM3-based precipitation values are slightly higher than CSIRO-based values with respect to their annual and annual JJA mean precipitation values, but CSIRO-based annual DJF mean precipitation values are slightly higher than CCSM3-based values. In case of mean air temperature between CCSM3 and CSIRO during 21^st century, all of results show a clear trend in warming with the passage of time for 5 watersheds. However the upward trends from CCSM3-based values slow down toward end of 21^stcentury while CSRIO-based values increases almost linearly.